It’s now four profitable days from the last five for our Andy Schooler and he’s got 5/2, 3/1 and 7/2 shots for Monday’s action at the French Open.
Novak Djokovic v Karen Khachanov
Unsurprisingly, Djokovic is a red-hot favourite to progress to what would be his 47th Grand Slam quarter-final – only Roger Federer has played in more.
Like most, I don’t give Khachanov much of a chance and you won’t get rich quick backing the top seed at a best price of 1/28.
However, there’s still a bet for this match worth taking.
It comes in the sub-markets, which will be worth keeping an eye on in the second week of the tournament as they expand round-by-round.
It’s aces I’m interested in here with Khachanov out at 7/2 to serve the most in the match. That’s too big.
The Russian has landed this bet in three of their four previous meetings, including the 6-2 6-2 loss he suffered in Dubai earlier this season.
It is this head-to-head stat which is most crucial when dealing in this market but the tournament so far also shows Khachanov has served more aces – 16 to 14.
In fact, Djokovic has been out-aced by two of his three opponents so far.
It should be remembered that Khachanov is four inches taller so has that greater reach to get a touch on the Djokovic serve. He also delivers his serve at a greater pace, on average.
Admittedly, this will be their first meeting on clay which does place a bit more importance on placement in terms of delivering aces. That will work in Djokovic’s favour but the market is still not right and I’ll happily take Khachanov at 7/2.
I’ll actually split my bank for this match between ‘most aces in the match’ and ‘most aces in the first set’.
Djokovic may well get more of a read on the big Khachanov delivery as the match wears on so this acts as a bit of a cover bet.
Petra Kvitova v Shuai Zhang
Three of Monday’s quarter-finals in the women’s singles are tight affairs, at least according to the layers, who can barely split the players in question.
The other is this tie and the 3/1 price about Zhang immediately catches the eye.
Like Kvitova, she’s yet to drop a set in the tournament and having already beaten a couple of heavy hitters in Madison Keys and Alize Cornet will come into the contest confident of being able to deal with the Czech’s game.
She knows she can beat Kvitova on clay, albeit her victory came back in 2014. Kvitova won their most recent claycourt match, in 2018, and so the head-to-head on the surface is 1-1. Kvitova leads 3-2 overall.
Laylah Fernandez was very disappointed after her third-round loss to Kvitova, insisting she really should have made more of the many chances she had on the former Wimbledon champion’s serve so it’s not as if Kvitova has been utterly dominant so far.
This is her weakest surface and she’s a player whose confidence has often seemed frail. I doubt being the only seed left in her quarter is a good thing for her – she’s not always carried the favourite’s tag well – and for me she’s too short here.
Zhang has been to Grand Slam quarter-finals in the past so it’s not as if she’s facing a task she’s never completed before.
She will try to mix things up and deny Kvitova the rhythm she’d prefer. The Chinese may turn out to be a value loser but with the price discrepancy so wide, she looks worth a small punt to cause yet another upset at this tournament of shocks.
Posted at 2000 BST on 04/10/20
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