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Free horse racing tips for day four of the Glorious Goodwood Festival
Andrew Asquith has had a big-priced Goodwood winner already today and has more bets to come on day four of the meeting.
Andrew Asquith Verdict: Friday August 2
1pt e.w. Master Milliner in 1.50 Goodwood at 12/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Socialite in 2.25 Goodwood at 8/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. Bopedro in 3.00 Goodwood at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Milliner to bounce back returned to Goodwood
The opening race at Glorious Goodwood on Friday is a unique marathon handicap, where starting stalls aren’t used, so things can get messy with plenty of riders jockeying for position.
Plenty of these contested the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting run over a similar distance and it was Kyle of Lochalsh who fared best of those finishing third, with Get Shirty and Temporize not far behind in fourth and fifth.
Temporize overturned the form with Kyle Of Lochalsh when winning a two-mile handicap at Newbury last time, displaying a terrific attitude to fend off all challengers in the closing stages having made all of the running, but setting only steady fractions.
Temporize also won this race 12 months ago in good style from Robert Johnson and he has to command respect again seeing as he continues to go from strength to strength for this yard, but he will need to prove better than ever now back up to a mark of 92.
The horse who caught my eye at the prices is MASTER MILLINER, who won this race two years ago (from Super Superjack), but missed all of last season. He has finished nearer last than first in both starts since returning from a lay-off, but he faced a stiff task pitched into the Ascot Stakes on his belated return, unsurprisingly shaping as though he was in dire need of the run, and wasn’t best placed or suited by the emphasis being on speed back in trip in the race won by Temporize at Newbury last time.
In each start this season, he has left the impression that he retains plenty of ability, though, and theoretically should be spot on for this test now with those two runs under his belt. Master Milliner can boast a solid record at Goodwood, with two wins from three starts, so you can imagine that Emma Lavelle has been building him up for another crack at this unique handicap.
He is now 3lb lower in the weights than when winning this race in 2022 and, though he is now an eight-year-old, he doesn’t have that many miles on the clock. Master Milliner looks a solid each-way bet at around the 12/1 mark under conditions which will bring out the best of him.
The Verdict: Back Master Milliner in the 1.50 Goodwood
Socialite can turn the tables with old rivals
This looks a competitive renewal of the Thoroughbred Stakes and the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes at Newmarket, which was won by Al Musmak last month, looks a key piece of form.
Lead Artist came home third that day and SOCIALITE was fourth and it is the latter who I think has solid claims of reversing the form.
He was unraced as a juvenile and overcame market weakness and greenness to make a winning debut over seven furlongs at Leicester in May, doing so in the style of a nice prospect and also leading home three next-time-out winners.
Socialite stepped forward markedly for that experience when following up under a penalty at Doncaster next time, lowering the colours of odds-on favourite King’s Gamble in the process. There was plenty to like about how he went about his business that day, looking much more professional in the early stages and comfortably on top when he started to hang a little in the final 50 yards.
He progressed further in defeat up in grade last time, too, displaying plenty of speed on his first start at a mile, but doing too much too soon. He was quickly sent forward and raced on his own up the middle of the track while all of his rivals congregated to the far-side rail.
Socialite had the majority of his rivals off the bridle entering the final two furlongs, but his earlier exertions began to tell entering the final furlong when he was caught, but he stuck to his task well and was actually coming back for a bit more when he saw some company.
He set the race up for the closers on that occasion, but it may be a different scenario at this track which generally suits such tactics much better, and he strikes as the type who will be suited by racing round a bend. There isn’t too much pace in this race on paper and, if he is ridden a little more economically, he may take some catching if having an advantage on entering the straight given the downhill nature of much of it under what will likely still be quick conditions.
The Verdict: Back Socialite in the 2.25 Goodwood
Take a chance on Bopedro at big price
The Coral Golden Mile is as competitive as ever and there are bound to be some hard-luck stories in this big-field handicap. Therefore, I’m steering away from the head of the market, and happy to go in with a small-stakes each-way bet – it was hard to take my Classic-tinted glasses off, I must admit.
David O’Meara has no less than six runners and his Darkness – who was a non-runner at this meeting on Wednesday – looks very interesting from a much better draw than he was allotted earlier in the week. He arrives in good form and has to be respected given he was fourth in this contest from a 3lb higher mark 12 months ago.
However, it is one from the same stable I’m going to side with, and that is BOPEDRO, who wasn’t seen to best effect in this race last year from a 4lb higher mark.
Admittedly, Bopedro and not being seen to best effect do go hand-in-hand this season, but he is dropping down the weights as a result, and is just the sort to pop up in a race of this nature.
He has shaped better than the bare result on numerous occasions this year and is definitely in better heart than his recent form figures suggest. Bopedro beat only two rivals home in a handicap at Ascot last time, but that race was run at an unsatisfactory gallop, the steady pace only really lifting after halfway and at that point he became outpaced.
To his credit, he did stay on afterwards without ever landing a blow, and hopefully he will get a better pace to aim at here. Urban Sprawl will likely go forward from his draw in stall 1, while stablemate Benacre has been known to make the running in the past, so there is the potential for an honest gallop, especially in a race of this nature.
Bopedro will need some luck in-running given his general hold-up running style, but he is handicapped to strike (2lb below his last winning mark), and in a wide-open handicap, he has the potential to outrun his odds.
The Verdict: Back Bopedro in the 3.00 Goodwood
Published at 1445 BST on 01/08/24
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