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Free horse racing tips for day five of the Glorious Goodwood Festival
Andrew Asquith has had winners at 9/2, 12/1 and 12/1 so far this week and has three more bets on the final day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
Andrew Asquith Verdict: Saturday August 3
1pt win Great Bedwyn in 2.25 Goodwood at 12/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor, Coral)
1pt win Term Of Endearment in 3.00 Goodwood at 11/1 (William Hill, 888sport)
2pts win Purosangue in 3.35 Goodwood at 7/1 (General)
Great Bedwyn can thrive up in trip
Align The Stars was a rather controversial non-runner in the Gordon Stakes on Thursday (unsuitable ground stated) and is now vying for favouritism in this handicap over a mile and three quarters.
His chance, along with Fairbanks, who was impressive on his first try at this trip at Newmarket last time, have to be respected, but to my eye the Richard Hannnon-trained GREAT BEDWYN looks an intriguing contender.
He was a two-time winner last season, having the now-smart Saint George in behind him when breaking his maiden at Newcastle, and he looked progressive when winning a handicap at this course over a mile and a half, too.
Great Bedwyn has progressed further this year, finding only a well-in rival too strong on his return when given a little bit too much to do at Ascot in May, and travelling through the race like a well-handicapped horse at Doncaster next time.
He built on the promise of those efforts when resuming winning ways at Newbury last month, producing a career-best effort to beat an unpenalised last-time-out winner and a progressive three-year-old who was making his handicap debut.
The margin of victory that day was just a nose, but Great Bedwyn has more in hand than that narrow distance suggests, always travelling well in behind the pacesetters but he was caught in a pocket in behind rivals for much longer than his jockey would have liked.
He was still travelling well on the bridle with nowhere to go entering the final furlong, but managed to edge out and come between rivals in the final 100 yards, and displayed a good turn of foot under a hands-and-heels ride to be snugly on top at the line.
The handicapper has raised him 4lb for that success, which more than likely underestimates him and, furthermore, he has the potential to improve even further now moving up to a mile and three quarters for the first time.
There is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree and he has shaped like a proper stayer on more than one occasion. This progressive four-year-old is pitched into deeper waters now but he looks a little big in the betting at around 12/1 for me.
The Verdict: Back Great Bedwyn in 2.25 Goodwood
Endearment can build on York success
Free Wind sets the standard on form and will be much better suited by the likely ground than she was when only fourth (started 10/11 favourite) in this race 12 months ago when hindered by testing conditions. She wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to Bluestocking (who has franked the form since) on her reappearance at York and she looks a worthy favourite.
However, on the figures, she was below her best that day, so I'm willing to take her on with the Henry de Bromhead-trained TERM OF ENDEARMENT.
She goes especially well with ease in the ground, but proved she isn't reliant on it when making a winning return in the Bronte Cup at York in May, where she had the reopposing Night Sparkle and River Of Stars behind her in second and third, respectively.
That was her first start at beyond a mile and a half, and she clearly relished the extra distance, albeit in a race which wasn’t strongly run.
Term Of Endearment was always travelling well in a good position on that occasion, but her jockey didn’t get flustered when Night Sparkle went for home around two furlongs out, comfortably picking that rival up under rather considerate handling.
She did start to hang to her left when upsides, taking the eventual runner-up across the track, but Term Of Endearment always had plenty in hand and was in fact running around a little once hitting the front.
It won’t be ideal if she again goes out to the left in the closing stages at this track, but she was arguably better than ever that day, and should have even more to offer at this trip.
Given her record when fresh, I'm not concerned with her absence since, and in the hope she handles this likely quicker ground, she must go very well at a double-figure price for an in-form trainer who is having his first runner at this track.
The Verdict: Back Term of Endearment in 3.00 Goodwood
Purosangue looks very well handicapped
The Stewards’ Cup looks a typical minefield and I looked at Ferrous and Apollo One at bigger prices, but I’ve found it hard to get away from the claims of three-year-old PUROSANGUE.
He had some very solid form last year, not too far behind Jasour in the July Stakes after making a winning debut, and also beaten just a neck by Big Evs in the Molecomb Stakes over five furlongs at this meeting.
Purosangue found just a couple more progressive types too strong on his next two starts in Listed company before resuming winning ways back over six furlongs in a similar event at York, beating subsequent Greenham Stakes winner Esquire by three quarters of a length.
He is yet to get his head in front this season, but he has run well in some deep races, including when attracting support in the Sandy Lane Stakes won by subsequent Commonwealth Cup winner Inisherin.
Purosangue ran his best race to date when runner-up in the Coral Charge at Sandown last month, just unable to get past an on-song, smart filly in the closing stages.
The return to six furlongs will suit Purosangue and he is officially 4lb well-in now making his handicap debut (will race from a BHA mark of 105 in future handicaps).
Three-year-olds don’t have a bad record in the Stewards’ Cup in recent years, winning three editions since 2015, and Oisin Murphy will be able to decide where to go if they split into two or three groups from his draw in stall 14. If there is one horse in this field that could prove himself very well treated it is him.
The Verdict: Back Purosangue in 3.35 Goodwood
Published at 1455 BST on 02/08/24
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