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Free horse racing tips for day 1 of the Glorious Goodwood Festival
Andrew Asquith is covering for Ben Linfoot this week and has three recommended bets on day 1 of Glorious Goodwood.
Andrew Asquith Verdict: Tuesday July 30
1pt win Aomori City in 2.25 Goodwood at 9/2 (William Hill, Unibet)
2pts win English Oak in 3.00 Goodwood at 7/2 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Mercury Day in 5.20 Goodwood at 15/2 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Boylesports)
Aomori City a Vintage bet
Charlie Appleby won the Vintage Stakes in 2019 with Pinatubo but, interestingly, he’s had just one runner in the race since, that being Mysterious Night who finished third in 2022.
His sole representative in this year’s renewal is AOMORI CITY, who looked a good prospect when making a winning debut over six furlongs at Nottingham last month.
He overcame inexperience to land the odds in good style that day and, while the bare form was nothing special, he took a big step forward when finishing third in the July Stakes at Newmarket last time, finishing two and a half lengths behind the well-regarded Whistlejacket.
Aomori City was no match for the promising winner, unable to quicken in the same manner when Whistlejacket went clear under two furlongs out, but he did stick to his task well in the closing stages suggesting he’ll relish this step up to seven furlongs.
A nice type physically, he should have even more to offer, and the fact he contested the July Stakes on just his second start suggests he’s held in some regard. Aomori City has a nice draw in stall 1 and, in what looks an easier assignment on paper, he looks fairly priced at around the 9/2 mark.
The Verdict: Back AOMORI CITY in 2.25 Goodwood
English Oak ready for this test
Kinross is looking for his third win in the Lennox Stakes and is probably the right favourite based on the pick of his efforts, but he has been below form in two starts so far this season and looks opposable at the top of the market.
The one horse who stands out for me is the Ed Walker-trained ENGLISH OAK, who had some strong form last season, and has returned a much-improved model this year.
Admittedly, he was beaten by Noble Dynasty when in receipt of 15lb on his return in a handicap at Newmarket on his return in May, but he looked rusty in the early stages before finishing his race off well, just giving himself too much ground to make up on the winner who made all of the running.
English Oak has improved markedly since, too, impressive when winning a handicap at Haydock by four and a half lengths next time, and justifying favouritism in some style when following up in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.
He won that day in the style of a colt who is improving in leaps and bounds, producing a performance which highlighted him as a pattern-class performer. It isn’t often you see horses win highly-competitive, big-field handicaps in the style that English Oak did, always close to the pace in the leading near-side group and having the race sewn up from under two furlongs out.
English Oak has fared well with the draw, will have no problem with the ground, and he’s yet to reach the ceiling of his ability, so he makes plenty of appeal.
The Verdict: Back English Oak in 3.00 Goodwood
Side with thriving Mercury Day
Later on the card, there is an interesting fillies’ handicap over a mile, and I’m keen to keep MERCURY DAY on side.
She didn’t manage to win for Ralph Beckett in three starts towards the end of last season, but she showed ability, especially on her final start last year when runner-up to the now-smart Frost At Dawn.
Mercury Day was picked up for 50,000 guineas by current connections and she has made an excellent start, barely having to improve on her two-year-old form to open her account over an extended mile at Nottingham last month, but impressing with the manner of her success, and having more in hand than the official margin suggests.
She started the outsider of five on her handicap debut at Newmarket last time, but you could have called her the winner from some way out, always travelling well in rear and coming between rivals to lead entering the final furlong.
Mercury Day always looked in control from there on in, just having to be pushed out in the closing stages to beat a Godolphin handicap debutante and the odds-on Queen’s Reign back in third.
A subsequent 5lb rise for that success may well underestimate her, especially as she remains unexposed at a mile, and is likely to get a strong pace to aim at here. If Mercury Day represented a bigger yard, she would arguably be shorter in the betting than she is currently, and this progressive filly is one to remain positive about moving into a more competitive environment.
The Verdict: Back Mercury Day in 5.20 Goodwood
Preview published at 1315 BST on 29/07/24
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