Chris Day looks ahead to the big Saturday action and has tips on the cards at Aintree and Newcastle.
Racing betting tips: Saturday November 11
2pts win Local Dynasty in 1.30 Newcastle at 4/1 (General)
1pt win Sense Of Duty in 2.05 Newcastle at 7/2 (William Hill)
1pt e.w. Frero Banbou in 2.45 Aintree at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
Despite being moved to the synthetic surface at Newcastle, there’s no shortage of top-class handicap form on offer in the Virgin Bet November Handicap on Saturday.
There’s arguably not been a better staying handicap run all season than Royal Ascot’s Copper Horse Handicap won by Vauban from stablemate and Ebor winner, Absurde, form that clearly sets the standard here yet Ed Bethell’s four-year-old, Chillingham, ran a blinder in fourth from a wide draw which proved very difficult to overcome on the round course that day.
He’d earlier run out an impressive winner at Thirsk and, despite disappointing slightly at Hamilton on his last run, he remains a horse to keep an eye on and is surely one to be with next season whatever happens here.
Another four-year-old who comes here in top form is Mister Alan, who seems to hit form at this time of season although he may have been aimed at this race all season with the aim of getting heavy ground at Doncaster.
William Haggas has been knocking the winners in for fun as the season draws to a close and his three-year-old, Laafi, looked one to keep on the right side when scooting clear at Newmarket last weekend.
Fresh from his Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint win on Big Evs, Tom Marquand is clearly riding at the top of his game and it’s hard to see this one being out of the frame although he’s another who might have preferred this to have been run on softer conditions.
It goes against the grain to tip favourites in this column but I really believe the Godolphin three-year-old LOCAL DYNASTY will be very hard to beat with his stable, who had a first and second from just three runners at the Breeders’ Cup and have been in their best form all season in the closing weeks.
Sent off favourite when only third in the Dee Stakes, he was placed in top three-year-old handicaps at Royal Ascot and Newmarket in mid season when the stable were under a cloud and he did show a tendency to hang, always looking as though the step up to this trip was what he really wanted.
He ought to prove a lot better than this mark now normal service appears to have resumed for Charlie Appleby and he’s the nap at 4/1.
A few of the runners in the Virgin Bet Money Back Every Saturday Wentworth Stakes are also engaged in the handicap over the same trip so it’s difficult to know what might turn up against the Haggas-trained four-year-old, SENSE OF DUTY, but I’d expect her to put this field in their place if anywhere near her best.
She’d been off the track a while before running a respectable third at Newbury and may not have been in love with heavy ground in the Group One sprint at Ascot on Champions Day when a well fancied outsider, but the form she showed in landing the Chipchase here last June would see her home comfortably.
She sluiced in that day by four-and-a-half lengths and her affinity with the track is another tick in the box so I’d take the 7/2 now as she should be nearing concert pitch and could be one to travel this winter to Dubai assuming all goes to plan here.
Aintree’s Boylesports Grand Sefton will be the first time we’ve seen the big fences jumped since the Grand National and quite a few fancied runners were taken out on Monday so this race will have a different shape to what I’d been expecting.
Gesskille, who loves the test round here, gets the early vote from the bookies and his second here last year could easily be good enough.
I also believe Sail Away is a big race winner waiting to happen and should love these fences but Dan Skelton has always stressed he’s better on better ground which seems unlikely even in this year of unpredictable weather in the run up to big races so he’s passed over for now although he’s one to keep on side.
One who loves heavy ground and is back down to a winnable mark is the Venetia Williams-trained eight-year-old, FRERO BANBOU, who paid the price for winning a valuable prize over the minimum trip at Lingfield in January 22 and could also have improvement in him over the longest trip he’s ever tried.
November is traditionally Williams' time of year and he’s an each way price at 16/1 in a field where most horses seem averagely treated so he could be much shorter on Saturday morning.
I was hoping the Badger Beers Chase would be priced up as Frodon, who has had such a great career and excels here, is back down to his winning mark from last year.
There’s no way Paul Nicholls would not have him wound up for this early season prize and he might be worth getting on side if anybody does price this up later on Tuesday.
- Published at 0910 GMT on 07/11/23
