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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Saturday at Newbury and Newcastle
Following a 7/1 winner last weekend, our man looks ahead to the action at Newbury and Newcastle this weekend and has two early fancies.
Racing betting tips: Saturday December 2
1pt win Stolen Silver in 2.50 Newbury at 18/1 (William Hill, 888)
1pt win Empire Steel in 3.05 Newcastle at 10/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power, Unibet)
The Coral Gold Cup at Newbury is the big betting race this weekend and all of the big guns stood their ground on Monday.
The ante-post market is headed by the Paul Nicholls-trained Complete Unknown at the time of writing, but he wasn’t all that impressive on his return in a three-runner event at Newton Abbot and he is now 10 lb higher than for his last success in a handicap, which admittedly came in emphatic fashion at Kempton in March.
He remains unexposed as a chaser and for all it would be unfair to say he isn’t as effective at three miles or further, he has been beaten on each occasion he has run over similar distances, so I’m prepared to take him on at his current odds.
Monbeg Genius remains a horse of interest despite failing to complete on his reappearance at Ascot earlier this month. He looked in good shape beforehand and was yet to be asked for his effort when making a bad mistake at the sixteenth fence which ultimately ended his race. It is easy to put a line through that effort and his form behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in the Ultima last season really does stack up.
In my opinion, trainer Sam Thomas has two excellent chances in Our Power and STOLEN SILVER and, while the former has seemingly been teed up for this with a pipe-opener over hurdles at this course earlier in the month, I was very impressed by Stolen Silver on his reappearance at Chepstow (watch the replay below).
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All of his wins over fences have come in single-figure fields, but he has held his own and ran well in some top, big-field handicaps over two and a half miles more than once, notably when finishing runner-up to Midnight River on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham (Stolen Silver is now 4 lb better off).
He lost his way towards the end of last season, but he proved better than ever upped to just short of three miles for the first time with an excellent win at Chepstow last month, ridden prominently behind the leaders and looking like he had the race sewn up as far out as turning into the straight. The most impressive part of his victory was how well he was still travelling coming down to the last, where he produced a big leap and quickly powered away on the run-in.
Stolen Silver was value for much more than the official six-length winning margin suggests, his rider easing him down in the closing stages while he still looked full of running. Admittedly, this is a deeper race, he is 7 lb higher in the weights, and this race is around two furlongs longer, but he is totally unexposed at staying trips and he certainly wasn't stopping at Chepstow.
This track also has similarities to Chepstow, and he goes on any ground, so a likely faster surface shouldn’t pose a problem, especially over this extra distance. The standout 18/1 looks too big but even the 16/1 and 14/1 available is also more than fair in my eyes and I expect him to run a big race having had plenty of time to recover from his Chepstow success.
The Rehearsal Chase is another race I’m interested to get involved with after Shishkin was entered on Monday and as a result is taking up a big chunk of the market. Whether he actually makes the trip up to Newcastle with Constitution Hill still hasn't been confirmed and, given his exploits at Ascot on Saturday, where he planted himself at the start and refused to race, do you really want to be backing him even at a top-price 2/1?
For me, the answer is easy, and it’s a firm no!
Easy As That – who was selected in this space a couple of weeks ago – is next in the market, but he went with little fluency on his reappearance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and there was an element of him picking up the pieces in the closing stages. He was impressive over two and a half miles at this course last season and it may be that he will be seen to better effect now stepping up to three miles for the first time. He is short enough at around 6/1, however, as he didn’t jump well enough at Cheltenham in my eyes.
Steel yourself at Newcastle
I like the claims of EMPIRE STEEL for Sandy Thomson, who can boast an impressive £1 level-stakes profit of £99.99 at Newcastle in the last five seasons.
He has been quite sparingly raced in his career so far, only seeing the track four times last season, with the main highlight coming when pulling the race out of the fire in a listed contest at Kelso.
Empire Steel started favourite for a handicap at the same course on his return last month and he shaped particularly well in third behind Elvis Mail, leaving the impression he was as good as ever as he travelled through that contest with plenty of zest and producing some accurate leaps.
He was arguably a little too fresh, however, seemingly wanting to go a little faster than his jockey would have liked, but there is no doubt that he shaped like a horse who is still on a good mark. That was over three miles and two furlongs, so the drop back in trip should be no problem at all, and I'm confident he can reverse that form with Elvis Mail on slightly better terms given that he left the impression that run would do him the world of good.
There was talk of Empire Steel heading to the Becher Chase afterwards, but he hasn’t been entered for that race at Aintree in a couple of weeks, so he is seemingly an intended runner here. A strong-travelling, bold jumper who has a good mix of speed and stamina, he has the right sort of profile for a race of this nature, and I expect him to be a fair bit shorter than the current 10/1 on offer come Saturday afternoon, especially if Nicky Henderson decides against running Shishkin under a big weight.
- Preview posted 1145 GMT on 28/11/2023
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