Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Saturday at Cheltenham

By Andrew Asquith

Horse Racing

Sat December 16, 2023 · 1y ago

Our man looks ahead to the action at Cheltenham this weekend and is backing one in the December Gold Cup.

Racing betting tips: Saturday December 16

1pt win Fugitif in 1.50 Cheltenham at 10/1 (bet365, 9/1 Unibet, 8/1 General)

2pt win Bonttay in 3.35 Cheltenham at 6/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The December Gold Cup at Cheltenham is the big betting race this coming weekend and it looks set to be a good renewal, with the likes of four-time Grade 1 winner Fakir d’Oudairies, Grade 1-winning hurdler Monmiral and some solid handicappers left in the race on Monday.

The first two mentioned are intriguing contenders, but both are making their seasonal reappearance, so it will take some performance from Fakir d’Oudairies off top weight, while Monmiral has had his problems and has had a breathing operation since last seen. However, he is lightly raced over fences, and could well prove an opening mark of 145 all wrong on his handicap debut. It will be very interesting to see him back in action, though any juice that was in his price was squeezed out on Monday after Paul Nicholls stated that stable jockey Harry Cobden would ride.

I was very impressed with how the Alan King-trained Grandeur d’Ame jumped when recording an emphatic success at Wetherby on his return last month. That may not have been the strongest race, but it was clear he has returned in rude health, bowling along in front and very accurate at his fences, which are stiff enough and can punish horses who don’t show them respect.

If he produces another round of jumping like that then that will stand him in good stead round here, but he is now 11lb higher and in a much deeper race, while all of his wins have come in single-figure fields. Admittedly, this isn’t going to be the biggest field for the December Gold Cup, but prior experience of competing in a race of this nature round here has to be seen as an advantage, and it is for that reason I am passing him over.

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The one I can’t get away from is FUGITIF, who ran two cracking races over this course and distance last season, finishing runner-up to Il Ridoto in a similar event in January, and filling the same position in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival.

Fugitif is actually 3lb worse off at the weights with Il Ridoto from when he won that race, and the same rival also finished four lengths in front of him in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month, but he is shorter in the betting as a result and I’m of the opinion that that form can be reversed. Fugitif went in first-time cheekpieces on that occasion and arguably was doing a little bit too much in the first half of the race.

He still looked very threatening coming down the hill, looming up to Stage Star on the bridle but he was unable to go with the winner when that rival quickened clear entering the straight, while a tired mistake at the second-last didn’t help his claims, either. Fugitif travelled through that race like a horse at the top of his game, though, and that run should have knocked the freshness out of him while also fine tuning his fitness (he has reportedly come out of the race very well).

He handles soft ground very well and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb for that effort. His overall record at Cheltenham is a positive one, but his two best efforts have come on the New Course, and it is hard to not see him running a big race with his promising reappearance under his belt. Thunder Rock looks a worthy favourite and his form stacks up, so he makes obvious appeal, but he probably won’t be much shorter on Saturday, whereas there is scope for the current price of Fugitif to be shorter come race day.

There is another bet I’m keen to have at Cheltenham on Saturday and that comes in the final race on the card, a mares’ handicap hurdle run over two and a half miles. Luccia has been put in a relatively short price for this, but I am more than willing to take her on now tackling a trip beyond two miles for the first time. She hasn’t really convinced off the bridle in two starts this season and, though this will be easier than the Greatwood she contested last time now back against her own sex, it remains to be seen if she is up for a battle (she also holds an entry over two miles at Ascot next week).

The horse which interests me is the Fergal O’Brien-trained BONTTAY, who has an excellent strike rate, winning six of her nine starts – she is also yet to finish out of the first two – and I really liked the way she knuckled down when making a winning reappearance over two miles at Hereford last month.

It looked as though the handicapper had allotted her a lenient opening mark and she duly proved that to be the case when winning with more in hand than the bare margin suggested at Kelso last season and she took another step forward to follow up from 8lb higher on her first start for eight months at Hereford.

That race was run at a good clip and Bonttay moved into contention in the style of a horse who can make her mark at a higher level, briefly outpaced when turning for home, but soon getting herself back into a challenging position approaching the last and finding plenty to fend off another likeable type in the closing stages. The timefigure she recorded on that occasion was excellent, which gives the form further substance, and I think a further 5lb rise in the weights may be on the conservative side.

Bonttay is out of a mare who stayed three miles, so she also has the potential to take her form to new heights now moving up to two and a half miles for the first time, and she strongly left the impression that she would be suited by this longer trip last month. She is normally held up, tactics which can often be seen to good effect over hurdles on the New Course at Cheltenham, while Paddy Brennan, her usual rider, rides this course very well, too. The general 6/1 available seems fair for a mare who is unbeaten in handicaps and almost certainly hasn’t reached her ceiling.

Preview posted at 1125GMT on 12/12/2023