Our man takes a look at the action at Cheltenham's November meeting this weekend and has two early fancies.
Racing betting tips: Saturday/Sunday November 18/19
1pt win Easy As That in 2.20 Cheltenham (Saturday) at 20/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
1pt e.w Afadil in 3.30 Cheltenham (Sunday) at 25/1 (William Hill, 1/4 1,2,3,4)
The November meeting at Cheltenham starts on Friday and this year’s renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, the feature race on Saturday’s card, has the potential to be a belter looking at the five-day entries.
Towards the head of the market are a couple of last season’s Cheltenham Festival winners in Stage Star and The Real Whacker, while Notlongtilmay, who finished runner-up to the former in the Turners Novices’ Chase, is also an intended runner.
The Real Whacker has seen the form of his win in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – run over three miles – boosted in no uncertain terms by the runner-up, Gerri Colombe, who has won a couple of Grade 1s, notably the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal last weekend, while I Am Maximus, who finished fourth, went on to win the Irish Grand National.
The Real Whacker won all three of his starts over fences at Cheltenham last season, including the Dipper over course and distance, and I am firmly of the opinion that we haven’t seen the best of him yet – he will put himself right in the Cheltenham Gold Cup picture if he can defy a BHA mark of 162 on his handicap chase debut on Saturday.
Backing horses at single-figure odds in a race such as this early in the week doesn’t really float my boat, however, and I am much more interested in the chance of EASY AS THAT. He is a big stamp of a horse, always the type who would develop into a much better chaser, and he looked an exciting prospect last season when sauntering home in a couple of handicaps at Haydock and Newcastle.
He wasn’t the best jumper over hurdles, and he was a little ponderous on his chase debut, but he showed the benefit of that initial experience in no uncertain terms on his next two starts, impressing with some accurate leaps when hammering a solid yardstick by 10 lengths at Newcastle from a BHA mark of 133.
Easy As That was in nowhere near the same form on his final start at Sandown, coming home last of five and never jumping or travelling with much fluency. It is worth remembering that he started the 6/4 favourite for that contest, though, and it may be that the run came soon enough just two weeks on from his impressive Newcastle display. I am willing to put a line through that effort and I feel he is still a well-handicapped horse, while he also may be better suited by a return to a left-handed track.
He is versatile regards riding tactics so there is no issue there and the form of the Venetia Williams yard at present is very encouraging. She has had numerous horses make a successful return in recent weeks – including one in a competitive handicap chase at Ascot – and Easy As That has gone well fresh in the past. The general 16/1 available at the time of writing looks more than fair in my eyes (20s still around in a few places) and if any of the forecast rain hits Cheltenham later this week that will only enhance his claims.
The Greatwood Hurdle hasn’t attracted as many entries as you would imagine for a valuable early-season handicap – similar sentiments apply to the Paddy Power Gold Cup, too – but it typically has a competitive look to it.
The early markets are dominated by Onlyamatteroftime, who is at the bottom of the weights and is set to have his first start for Willie Mullins. It is a very interesting stable switch as he ran out on his final start for Niall Madden in a handicap hurdle at Cork in August.
Onlyamatteroftime looked set to play a part in the finish but he began to hang to his left approaching the last and didn’t fancy jumping the final flight. It is no surprise to see him at the head of the market even after that mishap given he has joined one of the most powerful trainers in National Hunt racing and he may well prove himself well ahead of his mark. He is easily passed over by me at his current odds, however.
Much further down the list the horse which interests me most is the Paul Nicholls-trained AFADIL. I was a big fan of this horse last season, and I actually backed him for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, where I thought he shaped very well but was given a bit too much to do.
Afadil did go on to prove himself well handicapped, finishing runner-up in a valuable juvenile handicap at Ascot on his next start (form which has worked out very well) before easily recording his first win in a handicap in another competitive event at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting.
He took advantage of his handy weight-for-age allowance taking on his elders for the first time, but he always looked in control of that race, not helping himself by making a mistake two from home but quickly back on the bridle and he quickened up nicely on the run-in after jumping the last.
Afadil had his wind tweaked afterwards and was well supported for his return over this course and distance last month. He didn’t make the impact he was seemingly expected to make, but I thought there was enough promise in that effort to keep him of interest moving forward, racing wide and further back in the field than ideal in the first half of the race and still holding every chance approaching the second-last where he wasn’t fluent.
Nicholls stated beforehand that Afadil would come on a fair bit for that run, and he finished his race as if that was the case, not making much impact on entering the straight and that outing will have surely put an edge on him. Afadil is only 5lb higher in the weights than he was when winning at Ayr and there is surely some wiggle room in his mark, a relatively unexposed hurdler who I expect to be rated much higher come the end of the season. There should be a good pace on for him to aim at and he seems versatile regards ground.
Therefore, I feel his current odds probably underestimate him a little, especially as it has been stated on more than one occasion that the Greatwood is Afadil’s main early-season target.
Preview posted at 1010 GMT on 14/11/2023
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