It's Guineas weekend at Newmarket and Andrew Asquith has three early bets, including in the 2000 and 1000 Guineas.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday May 4
1pt win Theoryofeverything in the 2.20 Newmarket at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Task Force in the 3.35 Newmarket at 20/1 (William Hill, 888, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Cinderella's Dream in the 3.40 Newmarket (Sunday) at 20/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill, 888)
It’s Guineas weekend at Newmarket and all the hype since the Dewhurst – and even before that – has been around City of Troy. Probably rightly so, too, given he passed every test with flying colours as a juvenile, is very much the sort to develop as a three-year-old, and represents newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has won the 2000 Guineas nine times this century.
Typically, O’Brien has been very vocal as to the regards City of Troy is held in and current odds of 4/6 may look big come Saturday afternoon, but we have seen in previous years that these ‘Galactico’s’ are by no means bombproof, and I can’t resist having a small bet against him with some of the prices on offer.
The one who makes most appeal to me is the Ralph Beckett-trained TASK FORCE, who made a winning debut in what has turned out to be an ordinary maiden at Salisbury last season, and was strong in the betting when following up in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Ripon on his next start.
Only six runners went to post but it was an up-to-scratch renewal, with three last-time-out winners filling the places and Task Force confirming himself as a future pattern-class performer, still showing signs of inexperience but having plenty in hand and his performance was backed up by the timefigure.
Task Force took another sizeable step forward when runner-up in a very good renewal of the Middle Park at Newmarket on his final start in September, losing little in defeat to Vandeek who already had Group 1 and 2 wins to his name. Task Force ran a cracking race, but just didn’t have the speed in the closing stages to contend with the winner, though he stayed on well all the way to the line after failing to settle somewhat in the early stages, and that experience of the Rowley Mile will stand him in good stead.
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All of his runs last season came at six furlongs, but he has the potential to improve markedly now stepping up to a mile for the first time, and he is very much bred for a Guineas, being by Frankel and out of Special Duty, who was promoted to first in the stewards’ room in the 1000 Guineas in 2010.
A slight niggle is the form of the Ralph Beckett yard at the moment, who aren’t quite firing on all cylinders, but Task Force has been aimed at the 2000 Guineas, has worked well in a racecourse gallop and will surely be ready to do himself justice. A real good looker who has reportedly matured well over the winter, he is just the sort to raise his game even further now, and at 20/1 I think he’s overpriced.
Earlier on the card, there is a competitive handicap over a mile, and I quite like the claims of THEORYOFEVERYTHING. I remember when this horse made a winning debut at Doncaster for John & Thady Gosden around this time last year, where he looked a horse right out of the top drawer, and he must have been held in some regard to go on and contest the Greenham just 20 days later.
He found that jump in class coming too soon in his development, though, still babyish in the preliminaries and also in the race itself, and he never really progressed as expected in handicaps thereafter despite running some sound races.
Theoryofeverything was purchased for 55,000 guineas at the end of last year and was gelded by these connections. He shaped very well on his debut for David O’Meara after seven months off over this course and distance at the Craven meeting a couple of weeks ago, the cheekpieces he wore on his last two starts last season discarded, and leaving the impression he figures on a good mark.
He was ridden patiently – as he had been in all of his starts – and made good headway into contention, having to switch out for a run over a furlong out and keeping on well once in the clear without being given too much of a hard time. That was a very encouraging first start for the yard and, given O’Meara’s record of getting more out of new recruits, he should only improve for that outing. He was behind Hafeet Alain and Dutch Decoy on that occasion, both of whom also hold entries in this race, but he will be 7lb better of with the former.
The story of the Craven meeting was the tail wind on the Rowley Mile, which gave an advantage to horses who were ridden close to the pace, and making it harder for horses ridden more patiently to make up ground in the closing stages.
The early wind direction forecasts – which aren’t set in stone, obviously – don’t suggest that a tailwind will be as prevalent, however, and that will be a tick in the plus box for Theoryofeverything. All in all, he still looks unexposed as a handicapper, and it is worth remembering he is bred to be quite a bit better than his current mark (by Frankel, out of Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner Persuasive). Theoryofeverything looks a good bet at around 16/1, while William Buick has also been pencilled in to ride, which is another plus.
In contrast to the 2000 Guineas on Saturday, the 1000 Guineas on Sunday has a more open look to it, with bookmakers generally going 11/4 the field. It is Fallen Angel for Karl Burke who heads the way following her win in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh when last seen in September, but she doesn’t set an insurmountable standard for these fillies to aim at.
According to the betting – and early jockey bookings – it is Dance Sequence who is seemingly the leading hope for Charlie Appleby, but CINDERELLA’S DREAM has done nothing wrong in her short career so far and I think she’s overpriced at 20/1.
She didn’t go to any of the fancy tracks or have any lofty entries as a juvenile, making a winning debut on the turf course at Lingfield by a narrow margin, but her rider asked her to do no more than was necessary and she was value for more than the winning margin.
She improved further to defy a penalty at Thirsk in September, taking a while to get on top in a steadily-run race, but asserting in good style in the final furlong and her rider was able to ease her near the finish.
As with so many of Appleby’s horses she has enjoyed her winter in Dubai and she has looked pretty good in winning both of her starts there also. Cinderella’s Dream displayed a good turn of foot when landing a minor event at Meydan in February, again eased near the finish and looking a filly very much going the right way.
Her win in the Listed Jumeirah 1000 Guineas there last time wasn’t a deep race at all – highlighted by her SP of 16/1-on – but she overcame adverse circumstances in impressive fashion, her saddle slipping before halfway where she made rapid progress once William Buick lost his irons, and forged clear when pressed briefly from two furlongs out under minimal riding. Indeed, she will need to improve again now in undoubtedly the toughest field she’s faced, but she has the potential to do so.
Interestingly, she has taken the same route to the Guineas as last year’s winner Mawj, and I’d be surprised were she 20/1 come Sunday afternoon.
Preview posted at 1510 BST on 30/04/2023
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