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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Newcastle on Saturday
Andrew Asquith had an 8/1 winner in his last column and is back with two bets at Newcastle this weekend.
Weekend View: Saturday June 29
1pt e.w Onesmoothoperator in the 3.10 Newcastle at 14/1 (1/4, 1,2,3,4 General)
1pt win Willem Twee in the 2.04 Newcastle at 14/1 (General)
The Northumberland Plate is one of the big betting races this weekend and there are several among the entries who raced at Royal Ascot last week, notably Ascot Stakes winner Pledgeofallegiance, who could possibly be turned out quickly under a 5 lb penalty.
Prydwen is another who participated at Royal Ascot last week, though he failed to beat a rival home faced with a very stern test in the Gold Cup, finishing over 100 lengths behind Kyprios. However, he has some smart form on the all-weather, notably when winning the All-Weather Championships Marathon over this course and distance from a BHA mark of 99 and when following up from 6 lb higher at Southwell two starts back.
The latter race is one I want to focus on, as Prydwen beat ONESMOOTHOPERATOR by one and a half lengths that day, with Pledgeofallegiance a further neck behind in third. The last-named has obviously boosted that form last week, and Onesmoothoperator arguably shaped best of all on the day, doing well to finish as close as he did given how the race was run.
That race unfolded into something of a dash up the straight after Pledgeofallegiance set steady fractions thoughout and Prydwen benefited from racing closer to that modest pace than Onesmoothoperator did.
He had plenty of ground to make up entering the straight, sitting near enough last, and his jockey wasn’t overly hard on him, either, but the manner in which Onesmoothoperator stayed on inside the final furlong suggests he remains on a mark he can win from. He has likely been freshened up since, and will likely feel the benefit given he had been on the go for most of the winter.
Onesmoothoperator is a classy horse on the all-weather, one who isn’t devoid of speed, as he has showed when winning the rerouted November Handicap over a mile an a half at this course in November, while he also ran creditably in the Easter Classic over even shorter two starts back.
Onesmoothoperator enjoys a pull in the weights with Prydwen and Pledgeofallegiance, 2 lb with the former and 8 lb with the latter, and given he is such a solid operator round here – has hardly run a bad race – he looks a rock-solid each-way bet at around 14/1.
There is also a Group 3 race over six furlongs at Newcastle on Saturday, under a new banner of the Jenningsbet Nun Street Newcastle Open Now Stakes, having formerly being known as the Chipchase Stakes.
William Haggas has won the last two renewals and he has two strong contenders amongst the entries with last year’s victor Tiber Flow and another course and distance winner in Montassib. The former came with a strong run 12 months ago to deny Spycatcher in a close finish, while Witch Hunter ran with credit back in third.
All of those horses mentioned have to be respected, but the one I like at the prices is the James Fanshawe-trained WILLEM TWEE.
He was very progressive as a three-year-old in 2022 and he also looked very good last year when winning both starts on the all-weather. He looked very good when winning a six-furlong handicap at Kempton in November from a mark of 93, proving a cut above his rivals and impressing with how easily he moved through the race.
Willem Twee confirmed himself a smart performer when following up in a Listed event at Lingfield later that month, overcoming adverse circumstances – he was pushed wide on the home turn, forfeiting ground as a result – by making rapid headway in the straight and still having enough left in reserve to quicken away inside the final furlong.
He ran just as well in defeat in a similar event back at Lingfield on his next start, though he was unable to deal with Annaf and Diligent Harry on that occasion, but that was Willem Twee’s first start for 12 weeks, and both of those rivals are very effective and have some notable form at Lingfield.
Willem Twee was below form following another three months off and back on turf at Newbury six weeks ago, but he was never able to get involved despite attracting support back in a handicap. That run should have put an edge on him and he’s a much better operator on the all-weather in my opinion anyway.
Willem Twee was beaten a short head on his sole start at this course (over seven furlongs) and I have long thought that this track will suit his style of racing down to the ground. He represents a yard that do well with such types, especially on the all-weather, and I can see him running a big race moving up into pattern company at a track that should bring out the best in him.
- Preview posted 1235 BST on 25/06/2023
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