Andrew Asquith had a 10/1 winner in his last ante-post column and has selected two bets at Newbury and Kelso.
Weekend View: Saturday March 18
1pt win Barrabool in the 3.00 Kelso at 10/1 (General)
2pts win Siog Geal in the 3.15 Newbury at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Betway, 11/2 Betfred, Unibet)
As is usually the case in the immediate aftermath of the Cheltenham Festival, it is a rather underwhelming weekend of racing, and not many races are priced up at the time of writing, but there are still some interesting handicaps to get stuck into at both Newbury and Kelso.
The British EBF Betvictor “National Hunt” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury, which is a Series Final, probably isn’t the best race quality wise, but you can make a strong case that SIOG GEAL should be outright favourite for the race.
She didn’t manage to win in bumpers, but showed a good level of form, finishing runner-up both starts, notably in a listed event at Cheltenham, beaten only by a progressive Irish mare, and finishing in front of her promising stablemate who went on to win a bumper next time.
Siog Geal was a warm order on her hurdling debut at Catterick in December and, though she had to work much harder than her odds suggested to make a winning start, the runner-up was a useful stayer on the Flat who had changed hands for 70,000 guineas and has progressed well in this sphere since.
She then shaped with plenty of encouragement in a valuable, competitive minor event at Windsor, beaten just under three lengths by the thriving runner-up, Bluey, and the Paul Nicholls-trained Jubilee Alpha, who started just 15/2 for the Grade 1 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last week.
Siog Geal didn’t appear suited by the track or trip on that occasion, outpaced between three and two out but rallying on the run-in, shaping like a horse in dire need of a bigger test of stamina.
The same sentiments apply to her latest effort at Market Rasen, where she was beaten even further by Bluey, but also doing all of her best work at the finish, unable to cope with the natural speed of the winner in a race which produced an excellent timefigure for the grade.
Siog Geal will finally go beyond two miles at Newbury on Saturday and the two and a half mile trip is almost certain to unlock further improvement, while the galloping nature of the track will also play to her strengths.
All of her runs so far over hurdles have come on ground Timeform described as good to soft, so forecast conditions won’t be an issue, and an opening mark of 116 could underestimate her greatly even just based on her run at Windsor. Fergal O’Brien has been amongst the winners in recent days and the standout 6/1 available could look very big come Saturday.
The ground is also set to be good to soft at Kelso on Saturday and with that in mind, I like the claims of BARRABOOL in the Ladbrokes Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.
She showed only modest form in bumpers for Tom Weston in 2024, but she made an eye-catching stable switch to Harry Derham (picked up for £24,000) and has made an encouraging enough start over hurdles.
Barrabool made a winning start for the yard in a weak mares’ maiden hurdle at Plumpton in November, starting the 3/1-on favourite and barely having to come out of third gear to beat two lesser rivals.
It is interesting that Derham pitched her in a much stronger race at Windsor (the same one as Siog Geal) on her next start and, while she was ultimately well beaten, she did travel well under a more patient ride before being left behind once entering the straight.
She again travelled well back down in class when runner-up to Tour Ovalie at Taunton last time, too, but the standout aspect of that performance was her jumping. She didn’t put a foot wrong, fast and fluent at each obstacle and she appeared to have all of her rivals in trouble turning for home.
Barrabool appeared to run out of steam approaching the last and was readily left behind by the winner on the run-in in soft conditions. She was getting 4lb from Tour Ovalie on that occasion, but will receive 15lb if the pair meet again on Saturday.
The track and likely better ground will be in the favour of Barrabool, though, Kelso essentially a sharp course when the ground isn’t testing, and she also appeals as the type to do even better now handicapping from a lowly mark of 105.
Alice Stevens, who claims 3lb, and has a 28% strike rate for Harry Derham, has been pencilled in to ride, and if conserving her energy a little better, back on a sounder surface, I’d expect Barrabool to prove herself well treated on handicap debut.
Preview posted at 1500GMT on 18/03/2025
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