Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Haydock and Sandown on Saturday
Andrew Asquith has had winners at 8/1, 8/1 and 14/1 in his last three columns and returns with two bets this weekend.
Weekend View: Saturday July 6
1pt win Classic in the 2.25 Sandown at 8/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Iron Lion in the 3.15 Haydock at 20/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 - Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
There are a couple of excellent cards at Haydock and Sandown this weekend, both with a nice mixture of races, including some competitive handicaps, which keep this column ticking over.
From a purist’s point of view, all eyes will be on City of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse on Saturday, and I hope we do see more brilliance from him, as he looked the superstar that Aidan O’Brien has long been telling us he is in the Derby at Epsom last time.
However, the race that most interests me from a betting perspective at Sandown is the Coral Challenge, a mile handicap for horses aged three or over. I’ve looked over the race all morning and I must be a glutton for punishment as I can’t get away from the claims of CLASSIC, who went incredibly close to giving this column a big winner last time.
Now, me and this horse have a real love-hate relationship, but you can’t dismiss the mighty race he ran when splitting Two Tempting and Dual Identity over this course and distance three weeks ago, and it surprises me that he is actually bigger in the betting than both of those rivals.
I know I may have my biased glasses on, but after watching that race back a few times, he really was an incredibly unlucky loser that day, held up in a race which wasn’t run at a true gallop, and having only one rival behind him turning into the straight.
Classic sneaked into contention under a confident looking Pat Dobbs, still on the bridle passing the two-furlong pole but still having around seven lengths to make up. He encountered trouble soon after, too, having to be switched to the inside and then back to the outside in the final furlong and running on all the way to the line to be beaten only a neck by Two Tempting who was much more prominently ridden and stole first run.
To make up the ground he did that day marks him out as a well-handicapped horse and, though he has shaped much better than the bare result on numerous occasions in the past, I think a subsequent 1lb rise in the weights is very fair.
Furthermore, Sandown received plenty of rain before racing that day, while it was still raining when the race took place, but the ground should be good to firm this weekend and that will suit Classic much better. He is only marginally better off at the weights with Two Tempting and Dual Identity, but it is worth remembering Classic was drawn wider than both last time, and got a luckless run.
Last year's winner of this race, Perotto, shaped well on his return in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot and has to be respected, but he is 8lb higher than 12 months ago and has been put in as favourite. Therefore, a top-price 8/1 is enough to drag me back in to support a horse who I’m convinced is still handicapped to win a race of this nature.
Some readers may feel like they are having a case of déjà vu here as my next selection has also appeared in this column before but, unlike Classic, this one is remembered for joyful reasons. Step forward the David O’Meara-trained IRON LION, whom I was surprised to see has been priced up as big as 20/1 for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock.
He did us a turn when winning a course and distance handicap two starts back and he really impressed me with how well he won that day. Admittedly, the absence of Maghlaak resulted in that race being short on unexposed types, and it may not be the strongest piece of form, but in my humble opinion, Iron Lion was much the best horse on the day and was value for more than the official margin.
I can see the argument for Knightswood being a little unlucky in second, as he was stopped in his run just over a furlong out and stayed on well once in the clear, but for me, Iron Lion cruised to the lead, arguably getting there too soon, and didn’t do a jot once in the clear.
A slightly more pressing matter is his run at Ayr last time when finishing fifth to the 11-year-old Euchen Glen over a mile and five furlongs (he will be 5lb better off with that rival on Saturday). That race was run at a true pace and you can’t really say that the longer trip was an issue, either, but he did make his challenge nearest the stands' rail, away from where the race unfolded in the straight, so maybe that was a factor.
Iron Lion still travelled through that race like a horse in top form, though, again one of the last to come off the bridle, and I’m more than willing to give him another chance to prove himself still on a good mark back over a course and distance he was impressive at the time before.
Also, there are scattered showers around the Haydock area in the lead up to Saturday, some of which could potentially be heavy, so with the going description classed as good at the time of writing, the likely odds are there will be some soft in there by the weekend. I’m of the opinion that that would be a benefit for Iron Lion, who clearly is effective on fast ground, but he has a pronounced knee action, and he was very impressive in his two previous victories at Doncaster when there was considerable ease in the ground.
This will be the most competitive environment he’s been in, but he’ll get a nice racing weight, will be well suited by how this race will likely be run, and I think there is still better to come from this strong-travelling four-year-old.
Preview posted at 1325 BST on 02/07/2024
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