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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Haydock and Kempton on Saturday
Andrew Asquith has looked over the entries this weekend and has picked out three recommended bets at Haydock and Kempton.
Weekend View: Saturday September 7
1pt win Waxing Gibbous in the Old Borough Cup (2.25 Haydock) at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Top Secret in the London Mile Series Final (3.15 Kempton) at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Montassib in the Sprint Cup (3.35 Haydock) at 14/1 (bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill, Unibet)
A proper array of racing this weekend, with competitive cards at Ascot and Haydock, featuring the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup, accompanied by some excellent stuff on the all-weather at Kempton, including a couple of Group 3s.
Haydock is where I’m going to start, as I quite like one in the Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup. David Menuisier is a trainer I’ve a lot of time for, so it was good to see him get a good Saturday winner with Tamfana at Sandown, and I’m hoping WAXING GIBBOUS can give him more to cheer about this weekend.
She looked a work-in-progress in three starts up to a mile and a half last season, but shaped well on her return and handicap debut when runner-up at Doncaster in April, having no answer for the well-treated winner in what were testing conditions, but still pulling nicely clear of the remainder.
Waxing Gibbous was much stronger in the market when opening her account next time at Newbury, and she did so with any amount in hand, passing the bulk of her rivals on the bridle and overcoming lingering greenness to settle the race quickly.
The fourth and fifth both won next time, to give the form a bit of substance, and she improved further in defeat when narrowly beaten at Kempton last time. Waxing Gibbous wasn’t suited by a drop to a mile and a quarter on that occasion in a race which wasn’t run at a strong tempo, and she was just unable to quicken with the eventual winner at a vital stage, but plugged on all the way to the line.
The way that race was run over that distance didn’t suit her and I’d expect her to be seen to much better effect now moving up to a mile and three quarters in what will likely be a decent sized field. There is hope that she will stay this far looking at her pedigree – by Sea The Moon, out of one who stayed a mile and a quarter – and her run style suggests this trip shouldn’t be a problem, either.
Waxing Gibbous is currently number 20 on the list, so will need three horses to come out to guarantee a run, but the likely ground will be in her favour, and the fact that connections have already pencilled in Hollie Doyle to ride from what will likely be a low weight suggests that the plan is to run (you will get your money back if she is balloted out). The 10/1 available looks a little big for one as unexposed as her.
I’m a big fan of this meeting at Kempton on Saturday, it’s good to see some high-quality racing at one of my favourite punting tracks, and I like one at a big price in the Unibet London Miles Series Final.
The horse in question is TOP SECRET, who had lost his way when last seen earlier this year, but prior to that, his record at Kempton was a very positive one, and it is encouraging that he’s gone well when fresh in the past.
Admittedly, he has managed to beat only one rival home on his last three starts, all over this course and distance, but prior to that, his course form figures read 62111, and he may be worth taking a chance on returned from a break.
His last win came over this course and distance in December (after a three-month break) from a 3lb lower mark, and he was very impressive that day, displaying a smart turn of foot in the final furlong and readily drawing clear of Talis Evolvere.
That same rival comprehensively overturned that form next time, but Top Secret wasn’t suited by a complete change of tactics, making the running that day but failing to settle in front and having nothing left the give once headed over a furlong out.
He didn’t fare any better on his next start, but that came in a muddling event, and his latest run was clearly too bad to be true. Indeed, he will need to be much better now, but as mentioned previously, his record when fresh is a stand up one, and he’s likely been targeted at this given the prize money on offer.
This race should attract a competitive field, so hopefully the gallop will be sound and he fares well with the draw. I feel that his price is big enough to chance at the time of writing and, if he returns to the sort of form he was in when winning in December, he will be competitive from this mark.
Back at Haydock, I think there is scope to take on the two three-year-olds Inisherin and Elite Status in the Sprint Cup, and the horse I want to do so with is MONTASSIB.
He is a horse who has continued to go from strength to strength since being dropped to sprint trips, easily winning a competitive handicap at York on his final start last season, and going on to score in listed company and Group 3 company this season, his latest win coming in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle.
Montassib beat Kinross by three quarters of a length on that occasion, while he had an all-weather specialist back in third who has since won a handicap from a BHA mark of 106 at Wolverhampton, so that looks solid enough form.
There also has the potential to be a fair bit of pace on in this, with the likes of Art Power, Bucanero Fuerte, Inisherin and Elite Status all likely runners who like to go forward. That will very much suit Montassib, who thrives off an end-to-end gallop, while hopefully there will still be a bit of juice in the ground come Saturday – the ground is currently described at good to soft, soft in places with scattered showers forecast.
He is well worth a crack at this prize and he isn’t far off the level required, so with some good efforts to his name at this track previously, in a race that will likely be run to suit, I want to get him on side at the current 14/1 with regular rider Cieren Fallon already pencilled in.
Preview posted at 1420BST on 03/09/2024
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