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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Grand National at Aintree.
Our man looks ahead to the action at Aintree on Saturday and has two bets, including one in the Grand National itself.
Weekend View betting tips: Saturday April 13
1pt win Mahler Mission in the 4.00 Aintree at 16/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Betfred)
1pt e.w. Cruz Control in the 2.30 Aintree at 14/1 (1/4, 1,2,3,4 Coral, Ladbrokes)
The Grand National Meeting at Aintree starts on Thursday and the likely ground is sure to play a big part and is almost certain to throw up a few surprises over the three days. At the time of writing, it is currently soft, heavy in places on both the Mildmay and National Course, but with more rain forecast in the build up, conditions are more than likely to deteriorate further.
The Grand National itself is a true test of the thoroughbred, run over a stamina-sapping distance of four miles and two and a half furlongs, with 30 fences to navigate, and it takes a unique horse to come out on top, even more so in treacherous conditions.
Last year’s winner Corach Rambler is 13lb higher in the weights, but judged on his latest run when third to Galopin des Champs, he is an improved performer this season and is officially 3lb well-in, so it is easy to see why he tops the betting. However, connections haven’t been shy in stating that they would prefer better ground, despite his run in heavy ground at Cheltenham last time, and he is easy to pass over at the prices anyway.
The horse who has been top of my shortlist for the Grand National for a while is MAHLER MISSION and I see no obvious reason to abandon him now. He was progressive as a novice last season, building on the promise of his first two starts in this sphere when opening his account in a maiden chase over three miles at Navan, making all of the running, jumping soundly in the main, and recording a good timefigure in the process.
He failed to justify favouritism in a Grade 2 over the same course and distance on his next start, but he was in the process of running a belter in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival afterwards, around five lengths in front and finding for pressure when getting the second-last all wrong and falling on landing – he traded at 1.37 in-running on Betfair.
People interpret races differently, but in my opinion he would have won that day if he had not made that mistake, and he has shaped well in both of his starts so far this season, losing little in defeat behind Thunder Rock on his return over an inadequate two and a half miles at Carlisle in November before finding only another progressive chaser too strong in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury when last seen in December.
That is always one of the most competitive handicaps chases of the season and he travelled through that race like the best horse at the weights – again trading odds-on in-running – still going well when produced to lead jumping three from home, only for the speedier winner to motor past at the last.
What is even more encouraging about his prospects in the Grand National is that connections made the early decision after that race to put him away and keep him fresh, so this has been a long-term target and one he has the credentials to excel at. Mahler Mission may have only won once over fences, but he is a horse who has a big pot in him, and one who should be well suited by the demands the National brings.
He has never won on heavy ground, but he acts on it, and he has a rather high knee action, hitting the ground hard, which suggests that conditions shouldn’t pose a problem for him. Mahler Mission also comes out well on my colleague Graeme North’s jumpability ratings – you can read in more detail here – and I expect him to run a big race on Saturday.
The rest of the card which is already priced up looks tricky, with several horses shortening while writing this column, and with multiple entries all over the place it is hard to fathom which race they will actually end up in.
However, looking over the William Hill Handicap Chase my eye was drawn to CRUZ CONTROL at double-figure odds. He has made good strides in his first season over fences, starting off at two miles and tenaciously opening his account in this sphere at the third attempt in a two and a half mile handicap at Newcastle in November.
He ran just as well if not better in defeat kept to around the same distance on his next two starts at Doncaster, finishing runner-up each time, and sporting a first-time tongue tie (which has been retained since) on the latter occasion. Cruz Control shaped like he would relish a step up in trip in each of those runs and connections stepped him up appreciably in trip in the Eider Chase at Newcastle next time.
He wasn’t at all seen to best effect in that race, either, ridden with more constraint over a marathon trip for the first time, but ultimately given too much to do and he was never able to get into a threatening position for all he moved stylishly into the race after jumping the fourth from home, just unable to sustain that effort.
Cruz Control went on to improve his record at Newcastle when winning a handicap chase at just short of three miles three weeks later, recording his second win over fences in the style of an improving chaser. Admittedly, that wasn’t a strong race, but he easily beat another in-form, progressive type and there should be even more to come from him.
He will be 6lb higher in the weights and in deeper waters now, but he is totally unexposed at staying trips and he goes particularly well in testing ground. Furthermore, all of his best efforts have come at flat, left-handed tracks, so Aintree should suit him perfectly and he is probably a little overpriced given his profile.
Preview posted at 1540 BST on 09/04/2024
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