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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Doncaster on Saturday
Following a 14/1 winner on Saturday, Andrew Asquith is back with three more bets for this weekend's action at Doncaster.
Weekend View: Saturday September 14
2pts win Lead Artist in the Park Stakes (3.00 Doncaster) at 5/1 (bet365, 9/2 General)
2pts win Chancellor in the Champagne Stakes (1.50 Doncaster) at 3/1 (bet365, BetUK)
1pt e.w Rumstar in the Portland Handicap (2.25 Doncaster) at 20/1 (1/4, 1,2,3,4 - Hills, Unibet)
The St Leger, the final Classic of the season, takes place at Doncaster on Saturday, and I’m looking forward to getting back on Town Moor to see how it all unfolds.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race seven times this century and I’m finding it hard to see past the first two in the market at this stage, Illinois and Jan Brueghel, both of whom represent Ballydoyle. It doesn’t look like a betting race to me at this stage of the week, though, especially after the defection of Ancient Wisdom on Monday, so I’m happy to pass it over for now.
However, there are plenty more opportunities on the card, and I’m pretty strong on the chances of LEAD ARTIST in the Park Stakes. He was arguably unlucky not to make a winning debut in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket, beaten only a nose by one who was more clued up, and he comprehensively reversed that form on revised terms at York on his next start, forging right away from his rivals in the closing stages in the style of a smart colt.
The St James’s Palace Stakes was mooted as a next target after that success, but connections opted to side step Royal Ascot, and he was disappointing in a listed event at Newmarket on his next start in July. He just wasn’t in the same form that day, but he seemingly wasn’t at home on the softest ground he’s faced so far in his career, beaten three and a half lengths by Al Musmak.
Lead Artist showed his true colours when quickly bouncing back in the Thoroughbred Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time, though, proving much too good for Al Musmak on that occasion, and really impressing with the manner of his victory.
He was ridden more positively back on a firm surface, setting a strong gallop and advertising his big engine by quickening clear from the front, displaying a decisive turn of foot to quickly settle matters entering the final furlong, and always doing enough in the closing stages.
That was over a mile, but he showed plenty of natural speed that day, suggesting he will have no problem dropping to seven furlongs, and he also recorded a smart timefigure to give the visual impression of that success extra substance.
I’m not too far from Doncaster and it has been raining this morning, but the forecast for the rest of the week is mainly dry, with moderate temperatures, so with the current going description currently ‘good’, we should be looking at ground no worse than that on Saturday. I haven’t been convinced with what I’ve seen from Kinross so far this season, and with the prospect of soft or heavy ground not looking likely, I think he looks a vulnerable favourite.
I have respect for Lake Forest, but I’m of the opinion that Lead Artist is just a better horse at present, a well-made colt who is also open to further progress after just four career starts. I can see Lead Artist setting off around the 9/4 mark, if not shorter, so I think it’s wise to get him on side now at the general 9/2.
The biggest field for the Champagne Stakes since 2007 has been seven runners, and I can see this race cutting up again into another small field (there are 11 entries at the moment, and four of those are trained by Aidan O’Brien).
The standout horse for me among them is another John & Thady Gosden-trained colt in the shape of CHANCELLOR, who has won both of his starts at Doncaster this year.
He looked something out of the ordinary when making a winning debut over six furlongs in July, well supported and taking the eye with how quickly he cut through rivals from around two furlongs out. Chancellor was ridden with plenty of confidence, showing a smart change of gear before just showing his inexperience when dossing a little once out on his own.
It was a disappointing run in listed company at Ascot next time, starting the odds-on favourite but not showing the same turn of foot when push came to shove. He wasn’t really best positioned in that race, though, held up in rear in a race where the winner made all of the running, while his inexperience was still evident.
Chancellor made no mistake dropped back into novice company when resuming winning ways over this course and distance last month, making short work of his penalty and looking a lot more professional in the process. He easily brushed aside another promising sort while giving him 6 lb, and that rival has since won easily at Kempton, so the form doesn’t look bad at all – the form of the Ascot race is also working out, too.
It is worth noting that Chancellor is bred in the purple, the second foal of very smart Queen’s Trust, who won the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf, and he looks a nice type physically, very much the sort to go on improving with age and experience.
Chancellor also holds an entry in the Flying Scotsman on Friday, but he isn’t jocked up for that race, while regular ride Rab Havlin has been pencilled in for this assignment. You would imagine – and hope – that the Gosdens will want to ‘roll the dice’ and have a crack at this bigger prize given his profile and the style of his two victories so far.
The Portland Stakes is the big betting race at Doncaster on Saturday and it looks set to be another competitive renewal.
When scouring through the field, the jockey booking which leaped off the page for me was Christophe Soumillon aboard Apollo One. He is a horse who goes particularly well in these big-field handicaps, finishing runner-up in the last two renewals of the Stewards’ Cup, while he also filled the same position in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last season.
Apollo One remains on a mark he can be competitive from, and he also shaped better than the bare result at York last time, but it is a horse who finished behind him in the Stewards’ Cup two starts back that interests me most.
The horse in question is RUMSTAR, whose form figures this season aren’t too inspiring, but he has plenty of rock-solid form in the book that makes him look particularly well treated from a mark of 101.
He developed into a useful juvenile in 2022, notably winning the Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket and, while he hasn’t managed to get his head in front since, he has produced some smart efforts in defeat.
Rumstar ran his best race last season when finishing fifth in the Commonwealth Cup, just two and a quarter lengths behind Shaquille, while finishing even closer to the likes of Little Big Bear and Swingalong. That is very good form.
He also ran to a similar level when runner-up to Lethal Levi in a competitive handicap at Newbury in May this year, travelling well but just unable to get on terms with the winner who has a good record of making all the running at that track.
Rumstar also very much caught the eye in the Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood, racing away from the favoured stands’ rail, but travelling through the race like a horse back at the top of his game and also enduring a troubled passage. He was never able to fully open up that day, hampered on more than one occasion, but finishing his race well and still having plenty of running left in him at the line.
He wasn’t in the same form back in a smaller field at the same course last time, but that came on softer ground and he didn’t quite see his race out after again travelling well. The drop to this extended five furlongs will suit, as will the return to a big field where he will get a good pace to aim at.
Hopefully, the weather forecast is correct and the ground will dry out further as the week goes on and, provided he fares well with the draw, I’m sure he the ability to win a race of this nature from his current mark.
Preview posted at 1510 BST on 10/09/2024
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