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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Ayr and Newbury on Saturday
Andrew Asquith looks ahead to the action at Ayr and Newbury on Saturday and has picked out two recommended bets.
Weekend View: Saturday September 21
1pt win Eydon in 1.50 Ayr at 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway)
1pt win Chillingham in 2.05 Newbury at 10/1 (General)
The less said about last weekend the better, in a good position on all three bets, only for Chancellor to break through the front of the stalls before the race had started, and Rumstar be demoted to fifth and out of the places having finished fourth past the post. Lead Artist wasn’t good enough on the day, so no complaints there, but hopefully a little bit more luck is round the corner this Saturday.
The Ayr Gold Cup is the big betting race this weekend, but it is a hard enough sprint handicap to solve on the day of racing, never mind five days before, when the draw, actual runners and more accurate ground conditions are all available. Plus, the Bronze and Silver Cup can both give added pointers to where you want to be on the track, so I’m reluctant to put a selection up at this stage.
The frustrating Orazio, who I thought would really kick on this season, would be quite high on my shortlist despite his inconsistencies this season. He was well fancied for the Ayr Gold Cup 12 months ago and he has a couple of good efforts to his name this season, namely when third to subsequent Group 1 winner Montassib in listed company and also when filling the same position in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. If he bounces back to that sort of form he would surely be in the mix.
Earlier on the card, I think there is a bit of value to be had in supporting EYDON for the Doonside Cup Stakes. It looks an open Listed event with Botanical, having his first start for George Boughey, and Enfjaar, the John Smith’s Cup winner, both having quite a bit to recommend them.
However, if there is one horse in this field who still has the potential to be much better than this level then I think it’s Eydon. That may sound a little silly, given he is now a five-year-old and finished last of seven in the Winter Derby when last seen, but it is worth remembering that he was an impressive winner of the Fielden Stakes as a three-year-old, and he also ran a cracker when finishing fourth in the 2000 Guineas soon after.
Admittedly, that was two and a half years ago, and plenty of water has gone under the bridge since – he suffered an injury when being prepared for the Derby and has had a plethora of setbacks – but the vibes were very positive ahead of his return and stable debut in February, so it was unfortunate that he finished lame at Southwell.
Eydon held multiple entries in Dubai, so connections were hoping to aim high with him, while it also shows that plenty of ability seemingly still remains given they are persevering with him.
The form of his 2000 Guineas has worked out well, too, with four individual Group 1 winners, plus several others who have been successful in pattern company all emerging from it. The now high-class Luxembourg wasn’t too far in front of Eydon on that occasion and even then he shaped as though middle distances is where he would flourish.
With a horse like Eydon, who clearly has his frailties, you would imagine that Andrew Balding will have left no stone unturned in his preparation for this assignment on the back of another layoff. Interestingly, Balding’s record with horses returning from over 200 days off in the month of September is 7 from 33 at a strike rate of 21.21%. Building on this further, Balding has also won this race three times since 2012.
In short, Eydon is a very lightly-raced five-year-old who still has the potential to thrive – he is a lovely sort physically, a strong, good-bodied colt – and, as I think I've mentioned before, I'm not adverse to giving horses like Eydon another chance to prove they retain all their ability. There is enough juice in the 16/1 available to take a chance on him in a race of this nature on what looks likely to be perfect racing ground.
Over at Newbury there is an interesting staying handicap which features two horses who have been selected in the column in recent weeks, namely CHILLINGHAM and Waxing Gibbous. I’ll admit, I wasn't in the best mood when Waxing Gibbous was narrowly beaten at Haydock a couple of weeks ago having travelled into the contest like the most likely winner. She was edged out by a more hardened rival in the end, losing little in defeat, and she remains a horse I have a lot of time form.
Waxing Gibbous has been installed favourite for the Autumn Cup at Newbury on Saturday and you can’t really argue with that given her profile, but I thought Chillingham shaped much better than the bare result in the Ebor at York last time and 10/1 about his chance looks a fair price. So I'm going back in!
I’d had him in mind for the Ebor for a while and I was happy to see he had been freshened up for the race, but he arguably was a little too fresh on the day, travelling close to the pace with plenty of exuberance and trying to slip the field around three furlongs out, sent for home and he briefly looked to have some of his rivals in trouble.
Indeed, he was unable to sustain his effort, the petrol tank emptying approaching the final furlong and he was ultimately swamped by more patiently ridden horses having sat too close to an honest pace. It is also worth noting that he went without his usual hood for the first time in his career that day, so it will be interesting to see if it returns on Saturday to accompany the cheekpieces he’s worn on his last two starts.
There is no question about Chillingham’s stamina, not in my mind at least, so it is no surprise to see connections stick to this sort of trip, and I remain convinced he’s capable of winning a race of this nature from a further reduced mark of 95.
This will be his first start at Newbury, but it is a flat, galloping track which will suit his run style well, and the likely ground, which should have some ease in it, will be no problem, either.
Furthermore, I’m particularly intrigued by the booking of William Buick, which is always a positive statement, and this will be just his second ride for the yard (the other came in 2022). Hopefully, Chillingham’s run in the Ebor has knocked some of the freshness out of him and, in the hope he is ridden a little more economically, he must have every chance.
Preview posted at 1540 BST on 17/09/2024
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