Chris Day looks ahead to Saturday's action and has half a dozen selections across the cards at Ascot and York.
Racing betting tips: Saturday July 29
2.25 Ascot Vetiver 1pt at 12/1 (General)
2.40 York Lucky Man 1pt at 16/1 (General)
2.40 York Summerghand 1pt at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
3.00 Ascot Biggles 1pt at 7/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
3.15 York Alflaila 1pt at 6/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
3.40 Ascot Desert Crown 1pt at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Much has been made of the fact that plenty of the field under performed in last year’s edition of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes when Pyledriver trounced the field but it was a widely held view that it was a very strong renewal in the run up.
The Muir and Grassick trained six-year-old is unbeaten over course and distance, his perfect record starting in the King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal meeting as a three-year-old and his most recent three years later in last month’s Hardwicke Stakes, and he looks certain to run his race although any softening of the ground may not be ideal.
The main reason for not tipping him now is that his price is very likely to be bigger than the 7/1 available today with an array of the best three and four-year-olds around queuing up to have a go and he could be proper value at double figure prices each-way on Saturday morning.
Derby first and second, Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel, will be receiving 11lbs from the older colts and this has often proved significant at this time of the year with Adayar the latest from that generation to do the double two years ago.
The Derby winner was unimpressive in following up at the Curragh in the Irish version in what was a messy race while King Of Steel, who was making his seasonal debut on just his third appearance on the race track in the Derby, followed up in effortless style at Royal Ascot and I find it hard to split the two and the bookies aren’t giving much away at 7/2 each of two.
Emily Upjohn, who could have been unlucky in last year’s Oaks, was an easy winner of the Fillies and Mares Group One here on Champions’ Day and equally so in the Coronation Cup at Epsom; although I do think her turn of foot was exaggerated by the slowness of the opposition she faced on the day.
Her second in the Eclipse was a fine effort in failing narrowly to concede weight to the top three-year-old, Paddington and a return to this trip ought to be in her favour but I do prefer her after a break and this comes plenty quick enough.
Hukum has been a star for Owen Burrows, beating Pyledriver in last year’s Coronation Cup, where he sustained an injury which kept him off the track for almost twelve months but his return was spectacular in beating last year’s Derby winner, DESERT CROWN, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown in May.
That race was also the comeback for Desert Crown, who travelled all over the field but may have seen too much daylight in the straight, presumably the reason why the owner has chosen William Buick to ride the colt on Saturday.
Reports of his homework have been exceptional and it’s hard to believe he’s not won a race since Epsom last year, mainly due to injury, but I like his chance on Saturday for the best trainer of this type of racehorse I’ve ever seen.
If Sir Michael Stoute thinks he’s ready, he will be ready, in which case 13/2 is a massive price for a horse who took the Dante and Derby without really breaking sweat and he just needs a patient ride and things to fall right and hopefully we see the performance he’s always looked capable of on Saturday.
The preceding race, the Moët & Chandon International Stakes, is the latest of the big handicaps to be run over course and distance and race specialist, Fresh, is the bookies’ choice as favourite. He does have a little to prove although he looked to be coming back to form when just lacking the pace to put in a challenge in the Wokingham last time where he finished a staying on fifth.
Vafortino is another course and distance specialist and it’s hard to keep him out of the frame; he ran another great race at York last time when just denied by Northern Express, who could line up here again, but his consistency means he doesn’t really get any respite from the handicapper.
For me, though, Ralph Beckett’s Bunbury Cup winner, BIGGLES, is the one to be on after he produced a tremendous turn of foot to complete a long term plan to win at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago, for which he incurs a 3lb penalty but the way he won there suggests that will not be what stops him.
He’d previously been first home on his side of the track in the Buckingham Palace Handicap here last month and also finished runner up in the Victoria Cup so his track craft can’t be questioned and there looks enough juice in his price at 7/1 for a stable in top form to make him the early pick.
The Group Three Longines Valiant Stakes sees Random Harvest bid to improve her excellent course record and nobody would begrudge her a victory having finished runner up at Royal Ascot for the second time this year.
There’s clearly very little between her and Prosperous Voyage and John Gosden has gone to the trouble of booking Ryan Moore, who has won twice on Grande Dame, to try and complete the hat-trick and I like her chance the best of the four-year-olds if she can put behind her a disappointing seasonal reappearance.
However, this has not been a good race for favourites and I particularly liked the victory of VETIVER in a Listed contest at Carlisle last time, where she was boxed in for much of the race but flew once PJ McDonald extricated her from the rail and I’d be happy to support this improving three year old Cheveley Park owned mare to continue her improvement at 12/1.
Up at York, the Group Two Sky Bet York Stakes sees My Prospero looking to secure his first victory of the season having finished fourth in two Grade Ones so far and he‘s certainly the form choice on his excellent run behind Bay Bridge in last year’s Champion Stakes.
He does, though, look a horse who takes plenty of driving and York may not be his track for all he brings the best form to the race and I’m quite keen on Owen Burrows’ four-year-old, ALFLAILA, who won the Strensall Stakes here at the Ebor meeting last year before completing a hat-trick in Newmarket’s Darley Stakes. I expect him to be really well suited to stepping up to ten furlongs for the first time for an excellent yard with plenty of high class horses to judge him by and this could well be the last time we see him outside Group One company, in which case it makes sense to take the 6/1 available now.
The Sky Bet Dash is a typically tough York sprint where there’ll no doubt be plenty in with a chance at the furlong marker but the two I like are Richard Spencer’s LUCKY MAN, who looked primed for a big effort when third at Ascot last time and SUMMERGHAND, a nine-year-old with no secrets from the handicapper but who could be well treated having dropped 12lbs in the handicap since February and regularly runs well at this time of year.
Prices of 16/1 and 20/1 give us a sporting chance in a wide open contest for horse who have both run well in this race in previous years.
Published at 1056 BST on 25/07/23
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing columnists
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
