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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for Ascot and Newmarket on Saturday
Andrew Asquith had a 6/1 winner and places at 40/1 and 16/1 last week and he has two more selections at Ascot and Newmarket on Saturday.
Weekend View: Saturday October 5
1pt win Nashwa in Sun Chariot Stakes (2.40 Newmarket) at 13/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt e.w. Carrytheone in the Challenge Cup (3.35 Ascot) at 14/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4 - Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
It’s a relatively quiet weekend of racing in Britain with not many races priced up at the time of writing as plenty of the focus is on Arc weekend at Longchamp.
There is Group 1 action at Newmarket with the Sun Chariot Stakes, though, and Inspiral and Tamfana are two horses I want to be against at the head of the market. You don’t really know what you’re going to get with Inspiral these days, her temperament under suspicion for me, and it is worth noting that her dam, Starscope, wasn't straightforward as she got older.
Tamfana, on the other hand, was impressive in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last time, but she didn’t really beat much, just a useful bunch in all honesty and she will need to take another step forward now up against some fillies and mares who have been there and done it at Group 1 level.
The one who stands out for me is NASHWA and I was encouraged to hear that this is her intended target (she’s also in the Prix de l’Opera on Sunday). She is a very smart mare at her best, a three-time Group 1 winner who has also finished placed on numerous occasions at the top level.
Nashwa is versatile regards trip, most of her career coming at distances further than a mile, but if you go back and watch her demolition job in the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course last season you will see that she also possesses plenty of speed.
She was very impressive that day, travelling all over her rivals and only having to be pushed out to assert and score by five lengths. Admittedly, the form in behind isn’t anything special, but she went on to be beaten a length or less in the Nassau, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes on her next three starts and that form isn’t to be sniffed at.
Nashwa was below form in the QEII on her final start last year, but that was a rare poor effort, and I’m inclined not to judge her too harshly on her latest effort in the Dubai Turf at Meydan as she had the widest draw in stall 16 and raced more prominently than she usually is, while she also raced wide and had nothing left to give in the closing stages.
She has reportedly been working well and also had a racecourse gallop last week, so fitness is unlikely to be too much of a concern, and she also has form on soft ground. Hopefully the ground doesn’t get any worse – it is currently raining in Newmarket with the prospect for more on Wednesday, but Thursday, Friday and Saturday are set to be dry.
Nashwa’s form claims are solid and she remains relatively unexposed at a mile, too, so she looks a good bet to me at around the 6/1 mark given the two ahead of her in the market have something to prove or need to step up further.
The Challenge Cup is the big betting race at Ascot and the ground is set to be testing there also – the straight course is currently soft with up to 8mm of rain forecast before Saturday.
Likely conditions won’t be a problem for CARRYTHEONE, who has been in good heart in his first season for Michael Bell and has some solid handicap form to his name.
He recorded his first win of the year in a big-field handicap over seven furlongs at Newmarket in May, the margin only a short head in a bunched finish, but deserving plenty of extra credit as he met trouble in running on more than one occasion.
Carrytheone went on to run a cracking race in the Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot over this course and distance next time, the winner English Oak in a league of his own, but he still shaped second best on the day. He had no room two furlongs out, finally getting a gap entering the final furlong and flying home at the finish only to find the line coming too soon.
He again shaped better than the bare result in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket and in the International back over this course and distance before getting his head in front in a Racing League handicap at Chepstow in August, staying on to lead in the final strides, doing well to do so in a race which wasn’t run at a true gallop.
Carrytheone didn’t get the best ride at the Shergar Cup meeting afterwards, doing well to finish as close as he did on that occasion, while Chester last time didn’t really suit his run style, attempting to make up too much ground while he again had to wait to get a clear run.
There is no doubt that he remains in top form and the return to the straight track at Ascot will be very much in his favour. The kicker for me is the booking of Jamie Spencer, who rides the straight course at Ascot better than most and I would have Carrytheone quite a bit shorter than the 14/1 available. He is a horse who needs luck in-running, but he will be very hard to keep out of the first four with a clear passage.
Preview posted at 1440 BST on 01/10/2024
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