Chris Day looks ahead to the big Saturday action and has tips on the cards at Wetherby and Ascot.
Racing betting tips: Saturday November 4
1pt Red Rookie in 2.05 Ascot at 6/1 (Betfair & Paddy Power)
1pt Ga Law in 2.21 Wetherby at 6/1 (General)
1pt e.w Knickerbockerglory in 3.15 Ascot at 10/1 (General - 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Latitude in 3.45 Ascot at 12/1 (General)
Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting really cranked the Jumps season into gear last weekend and Wetherby’s bet365 Charlie Hall Chase card gives potential Gold Cup horses a chance to stake their early season claims for the best staying chases.
Eight are declared, including Bravemansgame, who will have penalties to carry but there’s no way a bet can be recommended without running plans being clear as Paul Nicholls’ King George winner and Gold Cup runner-up would be very hard for the rest to beat in any case if he turns up here.
The one race on the card where I thought there was a betting opportunity came in the bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle, where some top staying chasers are ready to start their season with Thyme Hill, who couldn’t quite match last season’s best staying novices over fences, chalked up as the early favourite.
His record over the smaller obstacles is similar, although he’s been around a long time now and I’m not sure this thorough test first time out will see him in his best light.
Dashel Drasher is also just a notch below the top grade and loves to make the running, similar comments applying to Ahoy Senor, who looks to be using this as a stepping stone to maybe a Coral Gold Cup, although I’m not sure the presence of each will necessarily be a help to each other, as both horses have forward going running styles. They're also both in the Charlie Hall too.
With this in mind, I liked the look of last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner GA LAW who may well have followed up in Doncaster’s Sky Bet Chase under a big weight had he not fallen when launching his challenge up the straight.
In truth he’s probably not the best jumper of a fence and Jamie Snowden, who has been building a strong team of horses over the last few season, has said he’d like to explore the possibility of staying hurdles with this horse. He still has unfinished business in this sphere and has had this race as a target for some time.
He can lob along behind the pacesetters and I think there’s every chance he’s able to pick them up in the long straight once they’ve engaged in their own battles beforehand. I’m happy to take the early 6/1 on offer.
The Ascot card has three big handicaps and soft ground in prospect so there could well be some big fields. The fixture has a more interesting betting shape.
The Byrne Group Handicap Chase over the minimum trip looks a cracking contest with any number of potential improvers including Boothill, Frere d’Armes and Saint Segal all poised to return plus old timers First Flow and Funambule Sivola likely to keep them all honest.
However I think everything here looks like falling into place for the Emma Lavelle-trained RED ROOKIE who could finally begin to fulfil his potential now he’s reaching maturity at the age of eight.
He’s been a big race winner in-waiting for a while now ad a mark of 140 should be well within his compass. A big field, where he can be switched off and come with a late run, looks like being his optimum scenario and the trainer, who is currently operating at a 35% strike rate, will not want to miss this opportunity to land a good prize so at 6/1 he’s the horse I want on side early.
The Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle sees last week’s easy Cheltenham winner Our Champ go for the follow-up under a penalty and everybody will know he’s going to be hard to beat although he may not get the run of the race as he did last time.
In that case there’s plenty of each-way value with Teddy Blue, who was fancied for that race but fell early, and Rare Middleton, an unexposed one for Paul Nicholls, both credible threats.
However, the one who always runs his race right-handed on soft ground is KNICKERBOCKERGLORY for Dan Skelton and, with a good record fresh, I expect him to make them all go on his seasonal debut for the handicap king and 10/1 leaves scope for an each-way play.
His second in the Imperial Cup is handicap form out of the top drawer and he’s often threatened to win a big one and Saturday could be the day.
Finally, the staying handicap chasers will be looking to start their seasons off in the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase with potentially the first sighting of Coral Gold Cup favourite, Monbeg Genius.
Jonjo O’Neill’s representative was a fast-improving novice whose third in the Ultima is probably the strongest single piece of form of its type from last year with the subsequent Grand National and Punchestown Gold Cup winners the only two horses to finish in front of him.
He’s got other options, though, and could also be better left-handed so the horse I think most likely to be suited to the demands of this race is the Mel Rowley-trained LATITUDE, who finished off last season with victory at Ludlow before continuing his great run in a 12 runner race at Kempton.
He clearly loves to go right-handed and, although the handicapper has given him more to do, I saw enough in the spring to make me think he’s a horse with plenty of improvement in him and he’s the right age at seven to be thinking this could be his season.
If so, 12/1 gives plenty of margin for error for a horse who also goes well with dig underfoot, jumps brilliantly and has probably had this date in the calendar marked since Kempton.
- Published at 0930 BST on 24/10/23
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