There's an old suspicion in Ireland which dictates you should always back horses representing the first trainer or horse box you see on the way to the races.
When that horse box has a flashy image of Saxon Warrior on the back and has clearly just left Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle base, you do feel as though you're cheating the 'system' to some extent, but I'm going to run with it anyway at Leopardstown today.
It may have been a bone of contention for years now but there's nothing overly superstitious about the age-old weight-for-age scale and you sense it's going to come into sharp focus over the next few weeks, especially at Goodwood where you'll see the likes of Santiago getting over a stone from Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup and fellow Classic winners Siskin and Kameko getting in receipt of 8lb from Circus Maximus and Mohaather.
It has often paid to side with the younger brigade taking on elders through July and August in particular when those weight allowances can be quite significant and we have a couple of clear examples this afternoon with Aidan O'Brien's KEATS taking on a bunch of older horses, including last year's Irish Derby winner Latrobe, in the Listed Silver Stakes at 3.30.
The conditions of the race mean lightly-raced Keats gets 9lb from the four and five-year-olds, plus another 3lb from Latrobe who won a Group Three last summer and has the penalty to show for it, and it's hard to avoid his claims.
He sweated up before the race but it didn't make much difference at Killarney last week as he poured it on from the front to land short odds. He'd previously gone close when narrowly denied by stablemate Napa Valley over 10 furlongs at the Curragh and I'd be surprised if he wasn't really well suited by the return to a mile and a quarter here.
He's learning on the job and was idle in front last time but he's getting the hang of things, like so many of these three-year-old Galileos, and he looks well treated against some relatively exposed older horses.
Mr Mooj, representing Joseph O'Brien, obviously gets the weight-for-age allowance from the older horses in the TRM Hoofmaker Apprentice Handicap but he's short enough in the betting for me now, with preference for LIQUID LUCK.
He's not done a great deal wrong at all so far in three starts and really stayed this mile and a half trip well when second to Great House in a Limerick maiden last month. He's on the up by the looks of things and a mark of 80 doesn't look excessively high.
He's worth a small each-way bet at double-figure odds.
Earlier on the card, Joseph's SCHOLASTIC can back up her Limerick win from last week. She's got a bit of a nasty draw here in stall 16 but I do think she'd be quite short with a better draw so I'm happy to take the chance at the prices.
She won a nursery at the Curragh last year over a mile on soft ground but struggled to win at Dundalk over the winter. She seemed to lack gears on the Polytrack at a vital stage in her races and really appreciated the return to turf last week.
She gets in here under a 6lb penalty and was good value for the winning margin which was just three quarters of a length. There's more to come from her on turf and I'm very keen if we can get five places each-way.
Posted at 1000 BST on 23/0720
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