It’s the last day of the turf season in Ireland as well as England today and it ends with a bit of a whimper at Naas, I do wonder if they should think about ending it on a Sunday so it doesn’t get as lost amongst all the Saturday sport.
There are a few very ordinary races on the card, but it has been a fantastic year despite so much upheaval. Considering everything that’s gone on since Covid, we’ve had some great racing and credit must go to the authorities for it all going so smoothly.
Gavin Ryan collects his apprentice trophy today after a treble last night took his tally to 51 winners and it looks like he’s got a great career ahead of him, while two top Irish jockeys fly the flag for us at the Breeders’ Cup so good luck to Colin Keane and Shane Foley.
I’m going to have one last throw of the dice with three bets today starting with the big one at 2.00, the Naas November Handicap, where Cerberus is worth taking on given he finds it very hard to win.
The one I like each-way against him is NO SAY EVER in a wide-open race at 22/1 (Sky Bet and Betfred are paying 5 places).
He’s been progressive and though he has a tendency to be keen despite wearing a hood, but he settled better for a senior jockey in Shane Foley when winning at Gowran and Ben Coen takes the ride today.
His run last time in a very good 1m4f handicap at Leopardstown as he was trapped wide throughout and the pace wasn’t overly quick, but he stayed on well to be fourth with three three-year-olds ahead of him.
On that evidence I like him stepping back up to 1m6f, especially if Coen can get him to settle, and he has a good draw in four on ground he likes, so there are plenty of positives at a big price.
In the 3.10 it’s no surprise that Tony Martin has pulled out yesterday’s winner Dundory but he could still land the Congrats To The 2020 Flat Champions Handicap with DOUBLE JEMMY at 16/1.
His Flat horses have been in great nick and this horse reverts to the level after three starts over timber for his new yard.
He was bought after finishing third in a Naas maiden last November on this very card and his last two hurdle starts for Martin have been very good, so he looks in good shape for his return to the Flat.
Off a mark of 73 he’s very interesting and I’m surprised he hasn’t shortened in the betting on the back of Dundory coming out.
Finally, the bet of the day is REAL FORCE in the Final Day Of The Irish Flat Season Race at 3.40.
He’s been a star for the Gerard O’Leary yard this season and he had some good juvenile form including a four-length fifth to Siskin – not the only piece of form that suggests he’s a Group 3 performer.
He wasn’t beaten far by subsequent Listed winner Keats at Killarney, while a horse he beat well at Tipperary, Aztec Parade, also won in Listed company on his next start, too.
On Arc weekend he was second at Saint-Cloud in heavy ground under Olivier Peslier, but that was a good effort as he raced alone on the far rail with all the winners on that card coming up the stands’ side.
Crucially there’s pace in the race today, with Wonder Elzaam and Flaming Moon two front runners in there and it will suit him getting a lead.
He’s simply better than these for my money and is worth a 2pt win at anything above 2/1.
Posted at 1035 GMT on 07/11/20
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