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Four big Flat clashes featuring Paddington, Tahiyra, Ace Impact and Equinox
Adam Houghton highlights four potential clashes to get excited about as the 2023 Flat season nears its conclusion.
Kyprios v Trueshan
Long Distance Cup, Ascot (Saturday 21 October)
Round one of this contest in last year’s Goodwood Cup went the way of Kyprios, who had Trueshan back in third, beaten a length and a half, when gaining the second Group 1 victory of a faultless debut campaign in the staying ranks in 2022.
Kyprios went on to show even better form on his final start of last season when also winning the Prix du Cadran at Longchamp by a record-equalling margin for a Group 1, ultimately passing the post with 20 lengths to spare over his closest pursuer. He did that despite almost running sideways for much of the final furlong, putting up one of the most remarkable staying performances of modern times.
At that stage Kyprios looked set to dominate this division for many years to come, but then injury intervened. He was off the track for 344 days before making his belated return to action in last month's Irish St Leger at the Curragh, going off the 6/4-on favourite but never really threatening to land the odds as his winning sequence came to an abrupt end at the hands of Eldar Eldarov.
On Timeform's figures, Kyprios was around a stone below his best at the Curragh. Rustiness was no doubt a factor, though a return to last year's heady heights shouldn't be taken for granted when he makes his next appearance in the Long Distance Cup.
Maintaining a high level of form in the staying ranks is certainly no easy task, as connections of Trueshan will attest. The fact he'll be bidding for a fourth straight win in the Long Distance Cup is testament to his impressive longevity, though he too has experienced his fair share of bumps in the road, most notably in the spring when a couple of comprehensive defeats at Nottingham and Ascot seemed to spell the end of his time as a top-level stayer.
Trueshan's last two runs have been much more encouraging, though, returning from four months off and a breathing operation with back-to-back victories in the Doncaster Cup and Prix du Cadran, showing that he still retains a very smart level of ability at the age of seven.
Admittedly, neither of those races took much winning, but Trueshan is clearly back in much better in nick than he was earlier in the season, primed for round two with Kyprios in the familiar territory of the Long Distance Cup. He'll have his work cut out if last season's star stayer is back to his best, but then he arguably heads there with less to prove ahead of what promises to be an absorbing encounter.
Paddington v Tahiyra
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, Ascot (Saturday 21 October)
Out of all the races on QIPCO British Champions Day, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes looks to be the one brimming with star quality, featuring no fewer than six Group 1 winners towards the head of the ante-post betting, including the hero and heroine from the Irish Guineas meeting at the Curragh back in May, namely Paddington and Tahiyra.
A decisive two-length winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas, Paddington didn't look back after that as he continued his productive start to the summer with three more top-level victories in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Eclipse at Sandown and the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, completing a Group 1 four-timer and showing himself to be a high-class colt all in the space of 10 weeks.
Even when suffering his first defeat of the campaign in the Juddmonte International at York back in August, Paddington was by no means disgraced in third as he passed the post a length and a quarter behind the winner, Mostahdaf, possibly just a little flat after such a busy spell and on firmer ground than previously.
The poster boy for much of the Flat season, Paddington has since been eclipsed among Europe's leading three-year-olds by the brilliant Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner, Ace Impact, but he remains in pole position for top miling honours having been freshened up since his York run, with all roads leading to the QEII and an opportunity for his rivals to try and steal his crown.
Potentially the biggest danger in that regard is Tahiyra, the classy three-year-old filly who will be trying to complete a Group 1 four-timer of her own for Dermot Weld, unbeaten in three starts since coming off second best behind Mawj in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, a race for which she'd been the ante-post favourite all winter following a sparkling two-year-old campaign.
Tahiyra then justified very short odds when going one place better in the Irish 1000 Guineas before also winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, with an 11-week break in between those last two wins likely to ensure that she heads into the autumn with lots more to offer.
Whether Tahiyra can reach the lofty standard set by Paddington is a different question altogether, but we can be fairly certain of a hugely entertaining race, especially if joined by the likes of Big Rock, Chaldean, Inspiral, Nashwa and Triple Time in what could be a star-studded cast.
Auguste Rodin v Mostahdaf
Breeders’ Cup Turf, Santa Anita (Saturday 4 November)
It's not out of the question that Paddington's York conqueror, Mostahdaf, could line up in the Champion Stakes just 40 minutes later on that Ascot card, but he's reportedly an unlikely runner if the ground comes up on the softer side, as has often been the case at this meeting in recent years – Timeform have described the going as 'good to soft' or 'soft' every year since 2017.
In the event that Mostahdaf skips a run at Ascot, then the Breeders' Cup Turf is likely to be his primary autumn target, raising the mouthwatering possibility of a clash with another star three-year-old from Ballydoyle, namely the dual Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner, Auguste Rodin, who wasn't even given an entry for the Champion Stakes having flopped this year in both the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot when there was ease underfoot.
It's testament to the skill of Aidan O'Brien that Auguste Rodin proved better than ever in winning the Irish Champion at Leopardstown when last seen, bouncing back from his no-show in the King George with a comfortable half-length defeat of stablemate Luxembourg – who is seemingly Ascot-bound, incidentally.
Auguste Rodin is likely to be well suited by the test that a Breeders' Cup Turf run at Santa Anita typically provides, a mile and a half on rattling quick ground. He's got a good record when fresh, too, so an eight-week break between Leopardstown and Santa Anita certainly won't be an issue for this four-time Group 1 winner.
Similar comments apply to Mostahdaf, who has proved a total revelation this season with three wins from his four starts, including back-to-back Group 1 victories on British soil in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Juddmonte International at York.
The Prince of Wales was his first run for three months and his York success came after another two months on the sidelines, so time between his races seems to be important to him, hence why his connections have waited until the autumn before pitching him back in again in search of the hat-trick.
Though best at around a mile and a quarter, Mostahdaf has won over a mile and a half and the nature of the tight, turning track at Santa Anita ensures that the emphasis is usually on speed, anyway. The Breeders' Cup Turf is a race the Europeans traditionally dominate and, with this high-class pair leading the charge, for two trainers with previous in the race, it's likely to be a similar story again in 2023.
AND ONE FOR THE WISHLIST
Ace Impact v Equinox
Japan Cup, Tokyo (Sunday 26 November)
This clash is perhaps less likely to come to fruition than the three mentioned above, but it would be easily the best race run all year should Ace Impact and Equinox go head-to-head in the Japan Cup, one of the last big events on the international stage before students of Flat racing have the opportunity to switch off until the spring.
The Japan Cup would be a home game for Equinox, long-established as the world's best racehorse following his scintillating three-and-a-half-length success in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan back in March. To put that performance into some context, the group who chased him home included Westover, also runner-up in the King George and Arc later in the campaign, plus the subsequent Grosser Preis von Baden winner Zagrey and the otherwise unstoppable Mostahdaf.
Equinox has made only one subsequent appearance this year when producing another remarkable performance – albeit in very different fashion – to gain his fourth successive Group 1 win in the Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin back in June. The official winning margin there was just a neck, but he was clearly value for extra having come from almost last on the home turn and been forced to challenge eight-wide entering the straight.
Only a thoroughbred out of the very top drawer would have been able to overcome what Equinox did to get on top close home in a bunched finish, showing a rare turn of foot to edge out the mare Through Seven Seas, last seen finishing fourth, beaten three lengths, in the Arc.
We'll never know what would have happened if Equinox had taken his chance at Longchamp. Perhaps he could have been the horse to finally deliver Japan a first success in the Arc but, even in his absence, we still had an exceptional winner on Sunday in the shape of the three-year-old Ace Impact, who is now ranked second on Timeform's global rankings with a rating of 133p.
Ace Impact similarly impressed with his potent turn of foot when roaring down the outside to prove much the best in what looked a deep edition of the Arc, ultimately beating Westover by a length and three-quarters. Now unbeaten in six starts, he'd been just as dominant when winning the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly earlier in the campaign, showing bundles of potential which was finally realised when coming up against his elders for the first time in the Arc.
As for what the future holds for Ace Impact, there's a chance that he's already run his last race ahead of a career at stud. There's also a chance that he's finished for the season but will be kept in training as a four-year-old when he’ll be a fixture in all the big middle-distance prizes in Europe and beyond.
Or maybe, just maybe, there's that middle ground where Ace Impact makes one final appearance this year before heading off to stud, taking on the ultimate test of trying to beat Equinox on his home patch.
That would certainly be one way to end the 2023 Flat season with a bang.
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