Our columnist looks at trainers who traditionally excel at the Lincoln meeting, highlights a pair of jockeys to watch, discusses the feature race and a potentially hot maiden.
1. Varian and Bin Suroor runners demand close inspection
With no Bill Turner runner in the Brocklesby punters will be looking to Richard Fahey and Mick Channon, who have won the last three renewals between themselves, and their sole representatives in the first two-year-old turf race of the year.
Plenty of guesswork is involved in that particular contest, but we can get a good idea of whose horses to look out for at the Lincoln meeting as a whole by looking at which trainers have excelled at this fixture over the last 10 years (2010-2019)…
It’s a little surprising John Gosden doesn’t have a better record than that over the last decade, but he hasn’t won the Lincoln since Expresso Star justified favouritism in 2009 thanks to a few high-profile disappointments like Lahaag and GM Hopkins.
Haqeeqy bids to right those wrongs in what would be a poignant winner for owner Ms Hissa Hamdan Al Maktoum following the death of her father, Sheikh Hamdan, this week, while it would be a historic winner, too, for the new John & Thady Gosden banner.
His chief market rival is Eastern World - trained by Charlie Appleby, whose few forays to Town Moor have resulted in two Lincoln victories for Secret Brief and Auxerre in recent years.
Richard Fahey and David O’Meara have struck in the Lincoln for northern-based trainers in the last decade, but the former has no representatives in the big race this time around, while the latter relies on a couple of outsiders in Orbaan and Hortzadar.
William Haggas has won more Lincolns than anyone in the last 100 years with four victories in the race to his name, and he runs Johan, this time, a four-year-old who races for the first time since being gelded.
Look at the strike-rates of Roger Varian and Saeed bin Suroor at the Lincoln meeting, though.
Raids have been sporadic, but results have been excellent and, typically, the pair look to have targeted Town Moor with less than a handful of select arrows between them again this weekend.
Bin Suroor usually has bigger fish to fry at the Dubai World Cup meeting – and he does again this year – so perhaps it’s significant that Dubai Souq makes the trip up to South Yorkshire for the consolation Unibet Spring Mile (his trainer’s sole runner at the meeting).
He’s clearly had his problems having only been sighted once last year – when last of four at Ascot – but he’s been gelded since then and the perseverance is eyebrow-raising.
As for Varian he’s yet to win the Lincoln – the closest he came was with Eton Forever who was fifth in 2012 (a year after he had landed the Spring Mile) – but his record at this meeting is superb so Ascension has to be worth a second look in the feature.
Indeed, both of Varian’s representatives have to come into punting calculations, with Father Of Jazz going for the Unibet Doncaster Mile earlier on Saturday (2.00) hot on the heels of a fruitful all-weather campaign.
One thing's for sure - fitness will not be an issue for him.
2. Bennie has the jets
The first day of the turf season gives us the chance to take a close look at rising star Benoit De La Sayette, the 18-year-old apprentice jockey who has been making waves on the all-weather.
After winning nine of his first 31 races at a strike-rate of 29%, having only had his first victory on December 28, the 7lb claimer bids for his 10th career success on favourite Haqeeqy in the Lincoln for his boss, John Gosden, on Saturday.
He’s three from six for Gosden so far, and his victory aboard the stable’s Moohareeba in a tactical affair at Kempton on January 27 (click link for free video replay) is a good example of both his already accomplished style and where his claim has been the difference.
The fact that Gosden has put his trust in him to ride the Lincoln favourite speaks volumes and it’s incredible to think his first ride on grass since his pony racing days is in the first big handicap of the season.
Bookmakers are usually as quick as punters to latch onto top apprentices and it’s hard to argue there’s much juice in Haqeeqy’s Doncaster odds but, nonetheless, it’s worth keeping a close eye on this particular young pilot, who has 11 more wins in him claiming 7lb before another 30 where he’ll be getting 5lb.
It might just be a golden concession in the coming weeks and months.
Benoit De La Sayette’s Saturday rides:
- Haqeeqy – 3.10 Doncaster
- Sevenal – 4.20 Doncaster
- Lady Ironside – 4.55 Doncaster
- Phoenix Aquilus – 5.25 Doncaster
3. Lincoln could be a relative speed test
Where is the pace in the Lincoln? It’s a good question, as I can’t see many perennial front runners.
William Haggas’ Johan has led on six occasions in the past and looks the most likely to take them along, with Cieren Fallon’s mount breaking from stall 11 bang in the middle.
If Grove Ferry repeats his last-time out all-the-way tactics that were a success at Lingfield he won’t be far off the pace, either – although that’s not a given in this bigger field. He’s drawn next to Johan in stall 12.
Dashing Roger, drawn in 22 on the stands’ side, is another likely pace angle.
Other than that prominent racers that usually just travel off the pace include Born To Be Alive (stall 20), River Nymph (stall two), Kynren (stall seven), Brentford Hope (stall three) and Eastern World (stall 19), so there’s a nice even spread of likely early gallopers across the track.
They’ll probably follow Johan up the middle in one group, though, unless there’s some difference of opinions about where the best ground is but, even though this is a big field, a hell-for-leather gallop does not look guaranteed.
When you add that to the quick ground – it’s Good, Good to Firm in places with little rain forecast – there is a good chance this will suit the quicker horses rather than those that need an end-to-end gallop at this trip.
Horses like Scottish Summit and Orbaan, who would both be interesting were a fast pace guaranteed, could be inconvenienced, and I wonder if the well-fancied Eastern World might also prove vulnerable given he improved over 1m1f last time.
Haqeeqy and Danyah could do with an end-to-end gallop, as well, and though it’s hard to leave the former off the shortlist with the burgeoning Benoit on board, that 9% strike-rate of Gosden’s at the Lincoln meeting for the last decade might be a timely reminder that his horses usually burst into life a bit later on in the season.
The ones I think could be suited by a relative test of speed are ASCENSION, trained by that man Varian, and Andrew Balding's GROVE FERRY, who have both won more tactical races over shorter trips and the pair should like the faster ground conditions, too.
I’m also fascinated by the claims of GRAPHITE for Terry Kent, who won a good Doncaster nursery last September with Ataser.
It looks like he’s been nibbled at huge prices including 100/1 that has now gone, which is interesting given his best form, which includes a head defeat to subsequent QEII winner The Revenant (when giving him 2lb) at Saint-Cloud two years ago this month.
He’s been off the track for 543 days, so it’s a bet that has its obvious dangers, but he was a classy operator for Andre Fabre and he was also a prominent racer that handled good ground well. He’s interesting.
On the shortlist:
4. Atzeni the established King of Doncaster
With Frankie Dettori, Ryan Moore, William Buick, Oisin Murphy, Jim Crowley and Daniel Tudhope out in Meydan for Dubai World Cup night, the stage is all set for the undisputed King of Doncaster, Andrea Atzeni, to reign on Town Moor yet again this weekend.
Atzeni has a tremendous record at this track, having had 77 course victories at a 20% strike-rate, including two St Legers and four Vertem Futurity Trophies – but he’s yet to win the Lincoln.
The closest he came from four goes was with Beringer when the race was last run in 2019, but he has a fine chance on the aforementioned ASCENSION this year and if the Dark Angel gelding settles for him, then Atzeni is just the man to time his challenge to perfection over a straight track on which he's had so much success.
He just sneaks in at the bottom of the weights and should go well, but he’s likely to be the biggest price of all the jockey’s five rides at the track on Saturday, which says something for his Town Moor hand.
Andrea Atzeni’s Saturday rides:
- Juan Elcano – 2.00 Doncaster
- Artistic Rifles – 2.35 Doncaster
- Ascension – 3.10 Doncaster
- Emaraaty Ana – 3.45 Doncaster
- Line Of Descent – 4.20 Doncaster
5. Hot maiden can fire again
Finally, the 32Red Casino Maiden Stakes at 4.20 looks chock-a-block with potential and we could even see a repeat of the 2019 renewal when Bangkok beat Telecaster, the pair going onto win Derby trials after finishing first and second in this race, where they were nine lengths clear of the third.
The on-paper monster is KHAIZ for Charlie Appleby, a three-year-old debutant who is a full-brother to last season’s star performer Ghaiyyath.
While Ghaiyyath ran three times as a two-year-old he wasn’t seen out until the September of his juvenile career, where he made his debut at Doncaster, coincidentally, finishing third before winning twice at Newmarket including the Group 3 Autumn Stakes.
Khaiz has been given more time but Appleby has become adept at priming Dubawi newcomers at three.
The first 19 runners that Appleby sent out (who were by Dubawi and were making their racecourse debut at 3yo) all lost, but since then he’s eight from 21 at 38% and all of the winners struck in the first five months of the year.
He’s obviously a very likely type, but the one thing he lacks is racecourse experience which William Haggas’ DHUSHAM has after his sole run as a two-year-old at Goodwood last September.
A tad unlucky not to get up that day, he ran green in a nose defeat to Star Caliber in a maiden Haggas used to continue the development of Pablo Escobarr a few years ago.
Dhusham looks a very nice prospect and the latest Sea The Stars progeny to come through the hands of Haggas.
Unsurprisingly given the sire-trainer combination, Haggas has a terrific record with Sea The Stars stock, winning 46 races with them at 24%, scoring with 26 individual winners from 38 horses, with the dual Group One-winner Sea Of Class the best he’s had so far.
And then there’s SEVENAL for Gosden.
Another Sea The Stars colt, he’s also got racecourse experience having finished second at Newmarket last October where he showed plenty of potential behind Mutasaabeq.
A half-brother to Fencing, who was third in the G1 Vertem Futurity at this track as a two-year-old, his dam won the French Oaks and he’s another middle-distance prospect who could announce himself on the first day of the UK turf season.
