Five forgotten horses of interest heading into autumn of 2024 Flat season
By Matt Brocklebank
09:42 · WED September 04, 2024
Value Bet expert Matt Brocklebank identifies a handful of horses with upcoming engagements who may have been a little overlooked by the bookmakers.
BUCANERO FUERTE (Trainer: Adrian Murray)
Entries:
Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (20/1)
Flying Five Stakes (8/1)
British Champions Sprint Stakes (16/1)
Group 1-winning juvenile Bucanero Fuerte left the distinct impression he’d be a force at the top end of the sprinting division when making a winning seasonal debut at Naas in May (replay below) and he’s worth keeping in mind for upcoming engagements having been just 7/1 or thereabouts for the Commonwealth Cup at the time of being ruled out of Royal Ascot.
The July Cup at Newmarket also came “a bit too soon” according to trainer Adrian Murray but it wasn’t considered to be a season-ending setback and the Curragh’s Flying Five Stakes on day two of the Irish Champions Festival would be a fascinating target.
The son of Wootton Bassett has only ever raced over the minimum trip once, when comfortably landing his maiden at the Curragh last March, but he's got plenty of boot and his prominent tactics could be a real asset if dropped back to five furlongs.
The form of his Lacken Stakes win over Givemethebeatboys has been handed a couple of notable boosts in the meantime and he handles testing conditions well so looks a potentially big price not only for the Curragh but also at 16/1 for an open-looking QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes next month.
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JANCIS (Willie McCreery)
Entries:
Coolmore America “Justify” Matron Stakes (10/1)
The Matron Stakes is always a hot race these days but we’ve had winners at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 10/1 (twice) inside the past seven years alone and early favourites Porta Fortuna and Fallen Angel will need to be on their mettle.
Opera Singer would be very interesting if pointed this way but she’s got a lot of options going forward including in France and the real eyecatcher at a price is the unbeaten Jancis.
A striking maiden winner over seven furlongs at Leopardstown in mid-June, she took the step up to Group 3 level in her stride when producing a carbon-copy late swoop to win the Group 3 Brownstown Stakes over the same track and trip a month later, and on that basis (won by two and a quarter lengths going away from decent yardstick Bluedrum, replay below) she really could be anything.
The 2021 Brownstown winner Pearls Galore was beaten narrowly in the same season’s Matron before going on to win it the following year and Jancis does appear to have the natural speed to pose the strong stayers at the head of the market one or two problems.
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TEN BOB TONY (Ed Walker)
Entries:
Betfred Park Stakes (no prices)
British Champions Sprint Stakes (50/1)
Ed Walker is enjoying a fine season, his strike-rate for the whole year hovering around 20%, with Almaqam, Celandine, Makarova and Scenic flying the flag having all struck at Listed or Group level.
Ten Bob Tony seemed booked for a very good year himself after beating subsequent King Charles II Stakes one-two Boiling Point and Bold Style in a conditions race at the Craven meeting in April, but he’s only raced twice and has been set stiff tasks in the 2000 Guineas and German version out in Cologne.
Off since the overseas trip in May when far from disgraced in fourth after suffering some late interference, he's presumably had a few niggles but recent entries in the Park Stakes at Doncaster and British Champions Sprint at Ascot are an encouraging sign that he’s fit and well and going back down in trip looks a shrewd move for his next assignment.
Ten Bob Tony pictured winning at Newmarket earlier in the year
ZOUM ZOUM (Ralph Beckett)
Entries:
Betfred Park Stakes (no prices)
Ayr Gold Cup (20/1)
Zoum Zoum is another entered in the same seven-furlong Group 2 at Doncaster but I’d be more interested in him if Ralph Beckett opts to try six furlongs for the first time and lowers his sights a little in the Ayr Gold Cup.
This horse was an unbeaten two-year-old, his turf victories both coming on heavy ground at the end of the year, and while he’s yet to add to his tally this time around, he’s run some promising races when second in the Greenham and fifth in the Jersey Stakes.
He didn’t handle Epsom too well back in May and the same could be said of Chester last time out in the middle of July, but that form has been franked by the first four home (including runner-up Breege who won the City Of York), and Zoum Zoum has been given a break.
The layoff has no doubt been with a view to an autumn campaign and I’ll be keeping him in mind when back on track, especially if there's rain around. A stiff six furlongs on easy ground at Ayr could be right up his street and the revised BHA mark of 101 looks manageable if the handicap route is taken.
REAL GAIN (Richard Hughes)
Entries:
bet365 Cambridgeshire (25/1)
Gelded over the winter, Real Gain has been sent off at 8/1, 9/1 and 10/1 for major handicaps at Newbury, Royal Ascot and Goodwood in his three outings so far this season and barely threatened the judge in truth, but he's now 25/1 for the Cambridgeshire which may be worth a second glance.
He was really impressive when successful over the same nine furlongs of the Rowley Mile last September (replay below), scoring by five and a half lengths that day, and having initially gone up 11lb to a mark of 102 on the back of it, the assessor has cut him some slack now with a rating of 97.
He was far too keen early on when stepped up to 10 furlongs for the first time at the Qatar Goodwood Festival when last seen but didn’t run too badly in the circumstances and a return to Newmarket might have been high on the agenda all along.
Real Gain was bought privately by Wathnan Racing before bombing out in the Royal Hunt Cup but retains potential and trainer Richard Hughes has been in great form recently so he’s definitely one to monitor.
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