Five big-race clashes to look forward to this Christmas including Lossiemouth v Constitution Hill

Constitution Hill v Lossiemouth

Christmas Hurdle, Kempton (December 26)

Will they, won’t they? It’s the big one we all desperately want to see happen, top of the Christmas list by a distance, and although far from guaranteed at this stage, the latest in an ongoing series of updates regarding the well-being of Constitution Hill was a relatively encouraging one.

The Christmas Hurdle is Nicky Henderson’s race in many ways – nobody can match his dozen previous wins in the Kempton contest – but Willie Mullins did muscle in on it with a certain Faugheen a couple of times (2014 and 2015), and his star mare Lossiemouth represents the same owners who are no doubt tempted to send her over on Boxing Day.

She was electric in the Hatton’s Grace at the start of the month and, on that evidence, the 2022 and 2023 hero would surely have to be close to his very best to give her the sex allowance and a fair beating.

Having recently been reminded that horses such as Desert Orchid and Kauto Star won the Tingle Creek in their youth, perhaps there’s a case for suggesting Constitution Hill may simply have become a step slower as he’s matured during time off the track, but either way this will be one of the most mouth-watering match-ups we’ve witnessed for years and would leave jumps fans still humming 'One More Sleep' long after the rest of the nation has crashed in front of The Curse of the Were-Rabbit on December 25.

Grey Dawning v Envoi Allen

King George VI Chase, Kempton (December 26)

The young pretender Grey Dawning has the edge, according to the market at least, over old gun-slinger Envoi Allen but even the rookie form student would admit he still has some ground to make up on all known evidence to this point.

On the most basic level, Henry De Bromhead’s warrior can boast four Grade 1 wins to Grey Dawning’s one, the latest of which was chalked up in Down Royal’s Champion Chase early last month.

Having beaten the 2023 King George winner Hewick that day, the signs would appear to be ominous and connections seem keen to banish the memories of Envoi Allen’s previous Kempton visit – when he barely raised a gallop and was all but pulled-up in behind Bravemansgame in 2022. Not his true form.

For Grey Dawning, a comeback defeat in the Haydock mud was disappointing but hopefully not too damaging in the grand scheme of things, and he must have bounced out of the race surprisingly well to be fully in line for this.

The seven-year-old’s exuberant style of jumping should - in theory - be a perfect match for Kempton, but top-class chases aren’t won and lost on paper and everyone has a plan until a horse like Envoi Allen comes galloping down the outside.

Salvator Mundi v Bleu De Vassy

Future Champions Novice Hurdle, Leopardstown (December 27)

We didn't see a lot of the horse but Salvator Mundi’s name was mentioned in dispatches on numerous occasions throughout the last campaign and it’s one we’ll be hearing plenty about this year too, if the early Sky Bet Supreme odds are anything to go by anyway.

The Mullins-trained four-year-old is already clear favourite for the Festival opener and although that looks a bit fanciful based on his (62-length!) maiden hurdle win at Tipperary alone, you only have to glance at his juvenile form to see the distinct promise.

This is the horse who followed home Sir Gino at Auteuil in April 2023 - prompting Joe and Marie Donnelly to buy the pair of them - and his only run for Mullins prior to the maiden stroll in May saw him finish sixth behind Majborough in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham.

So he was thrown in at the deep end last term and may well face the same baptism this time around, but he’s effectively a second-season novice and could obviously be one of the highest calibre.

Gordon Elliott’s Bleu De Vassy was no superstar in bumpers but he’s gone about his business in taking fashion at Fairyhouse and Navan this autumn and can already match Salvator Mundi’s 148p Timeform rating, with the promise of plenty more to come. Underestimate this one at your peril.

WATCH: Salvator Mundi wins maiden by 62 lengths

Galopin Des Champs v Fact To File

Savills Chase, Leopardstown (December 26)

Similar to the King George conundrum, there are strong ‘Champion against Challenger’ vibes here too but that’s possibly a little wide of the mark considering that Galopin Des Champs is only one year older than stable companion Fact To File.

The latter’s mesmerising performance in winning the John Durkan left us in no doubt we’re looking at a genuine Grade 1 animal, and quite what he could go on to achieve from here is hard to put a cap on.

But to silence any remaining doubters, JP McManus’s new star has to go and do it again back up in trip, and it doesn’t get much tougher than taking on Galopin Des Champs over three miles around Leopardstown – his form figures in that scenario reading a perfect ‘Nelson’: 111.

Any cricketing superstitions aside, it was hard to argue with Mullins who felt his dual Gold Cup winner’s comeback run over an inadequate, intermediate distance at Punchestown represented a “massive” effort, and if there’s one Christmas banker on the cards then it might just be GDS at 2/1 to go back-to-back in the Savills.

State Man v Brighterdaysahead

December Hurdle, Leopardstown (December 29)

We're at Leopardstown again and another intriguing clash between Willie and Gordon; the Donnellys and Gigginstown.

State Man was beaten three quarters of a length by Brighterdaysahead in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, but the latter was race-fit and the gelding looked rusty when it mattered. So how can we be sure she's the better horse on these terms? The betting market for Leopardstown seems far from convinced.

Having said that, when you're dealing with top-level hudlers the 7lb mares receive from geldings is clearly one of the great levellers in the game at the moment, and while Elliott was playing it especially cool in the immediate aftermath of last month's success, he won’t be able to resist another go if the weather plays balls and we see sufficient rain.

No doubt like many others, the head says State Man comes on a ton and claims a third ‘Matheson’ without much fuss, but you’re getting nicely compensated by the odds if willing to swim against the tide and back the mare to uphold the form. Tricky one, and possibly the only 'second helping' of anything I decide to sit out this Christmas.

Published at 1330 GMT on 09/12/24

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