Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot and picks out the key statistics.
The Gigaset International Stakes hasn't been the happiest of hunting grounds for punters until Librisa Breeze landed a gamble last year.
Dean Ivory's charge became the first favourite to oblige in 10 years on his first run over seven furlongs and has gone on to acquit himself creditably in pattern race company.
He maintained the domination of this race by four and five-year-olds who have won all of the renewals in the last decade, suggesting the older horses may as well stay at home (cue a 'veteran' winner).
Only a handful of three-year-olds have made the line-up with 22 trying their luck in this period and only nine of those have been priced at 16/1 or lower. They've achieved a second (at 5/1) and two fourths (33/1 and 12/1) and it seems reasonable to put a line through their representatives as well.
Burnt Sugar was the 33/1 shot who hit the frame and he's back for more for his new connections rated a stone lower than that day and 11lbs lower than when never a factor last year. He's found some form again this season and couldn't be discounted.
In contrast, course specialist Squats is still a couple of pounds higher than when chasing home Librisa Breeze and his stable have a more obvious contender in FASTNET TEMPEST who has long looked an individual who would benefit from the re-fitting of headgear (his first win came in first time cheekpieces) despite the progressive form he has shown this season. He was far from disgraced in the Royal Hunt Cup (Remarkable sixth) and shouldn't be inconvenienced by the return to seven furlongs.
He is ridden by Ryan Moore who was on board Makzeem when the pair finished second in the Bunbury Cup consolation race (Fawareeq third, Swift Approval fourth) at Newmarket. That was only the four-year-old's second run over seven furlongs and obviously there should be more to come for a stable that last won this in 2007.
Flaming Spear represents last year's winning owner and rider and produced a remarkable performance to win at Newcastle in January. Only 4lbs higher, he has his wellbeing to prove as well as his effectiveness on turf but he has always been held in high regard and it would be no surprise to see this talented individual live up to expectations.
Viscount Barfield runs under a 3lb penalty which takes his race rating to 97 but the handicapper has bumped his official mark up to 107 following his Listed win at Chester. He is obviously progressive but is worse off with Fastnet Tempest (and Bunbury Cup winner Above The Rest) on their running at Chester in May.
Sir Roderic has only run twice over seven furlongs, his third run in a maiden and when winning a Sandown handicap just over a year ago. His progress appears to have stalled but a strongly run race over this trip could well suit given how well he can travel in his races.
He finished further back than was ideal last time and while the same is true of Fastnet Tempest, he would have finished closer in the Hunt Cup (beaten under five lengths as it was) with a clear run and he may benefit from a change of fortune this time around.
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* Winners have been aged four (7) and five (3).
* Winners have carried between 8-2 and 9-7 with eight carrying between 8-6 and 9-1.
* Winners have been rated between 88 and 104 with eight rated between 95 and 104.
* Three winners have been drawn in 2 & 3, three between 9 & 15, four between 22 & 29.
* Eight winners had won over the distance. One exception had been placed and won over further while the other was trying seven furlongs for the first time having done all his racing over further.
* Five winners had won over a mile.
* All the winners had either won or been placed in a class two handicap.
* Seven winners finished in the first five on their preceding outing with three winning.
* Seven winners ran at Royal Ascot [Buckingham Palace (4) and Royal Hunt Cup (3)] but only one of the last four.
* Two winners ran in the Bunbury Cup, finishing unplaced and third.
* Eight winners had won a race that season.
* Only one favourite has been successful.
* Winners have been priced between 4/1 and 40/1 with six at 18/1 or lower.