Expert Panel: What we learned over busy Christmas and New Year period of racing

Can you identify a long-range Cheltenham Festival bet in any of the major championship races following the Christmas and New Year action?

Matt Brocklebank: I’m going to include the Ryanair Chase in this bracket as it’s the Grade 1 event for established older horses that really intrigues right now.

We could be looking at the hottest edition for years if the early market leaders Banbridge, Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, El Fabiolo and Il Est Francais all turn up but, for various reasons whether that’s going or alternative targets, the Ryanair could also cut up considerably.

If not many of the aforementioned bunch end up running then I could see Grey Dawning going down this route rather than for the Gold Cup, especially if there's rain around. He travelled really well before being outstayed by Royale Pagaille in the Betfair Chase and I think we can scrap his King George run as meaningful form as he was on the back foot after an early error before eventually being pulled-up.

Dan Skelton is likely to keep him fresh for the Festival now and I’d be willing to give the grey another chance to prove himself at the highest level around two and a half miles on the New Course. He's 16/1 in several places for the Ryanair which could look huge on the day.

Tony McFadden: I'm well aware I’m stretching the boundaries even further than Matt here by including the Mares' Chase as a major championship race! However, I thought there was a lot to like about Bioluminescence's chasing debut at Limerick and she looks a likely Festival contender for last year's winning connections, particularly as Limerick Lace, and the runner-up Dinoblue, have been disappointing this season.

Bioluminescence was noted by Timeform as having the build of a chaser after winning twice over hurdles last season and she instantly raised her game over fences at Limerick, impressing with how she jumped and travelled. She's unproven on ground better than soft, but there should be much more to come from this Irish point graduate so double-figure quotes look fair, even with the slight concern that the Brown Advisory is also an option.

John Ingles: Marine Nationale is still finding his feet as a chaser after just four runs over fences but it’s encouraging that he’s put together a couple of solid efforts this term and if he takes another step forward in the Dublin Chase next month he’d be each-way value (20/1 in places) in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Things haven’t gone smoothly for Marine Nationale since his Festival win in the 2023 Supreme, but his third place behind Solness and Gaelic Warrior in the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown last week was his best effort yet over fences.

The runner-up rather than the winner is likely to be the bigger threat to Marine Nationale in future, but further progress from Marine Nationale can’t be ruled out and it’s worth remembering there have been some hot favourites turned over in the Champion Chase over the years.

Which novice – hurdler or chaser – impressed you most over the festive period with Cheltenham in mind?

Matt Brocklebank: I'll stop short of calling anyone a liar if Sir Gino isn't their answer to this question, but he was absolutely faultless at Kempton and looks top of the shop among the novice chasers.

In the hurdling ranks, (like Tony below) I was quite taken by Workahead in the Leopardstown maiden on Boxing Day but The New Lion has really captured the imagination and I love how he flicks across the top of his obstacles.

I genuinely think he'd be a player in the Sky Bet Supreme despite understandably shooting to the top of the market for the Turners after his cosy Grade 1 win in the Challow. He clearly stays the intermediate trip but he just looks extremely classy and will hopefully provide some stern resistance to the Irish youngers come the spring.

Tony McFadden: It's hard to look past Sir Gino in terms of most impressive, though he's understandably now an odds-on favourite for the Arkle.

In terms of a performance the market has perhaps underestimated, I'll nominate Workahead who bolted up in a strong-looking maiden hurdle at Leopardstown that featured two of last season's most talented bumper performers in William Munny and Redemption Day.

Workahead had been beaten nearly ten lengths in third by Jasmin de Vaux at Navan, so it's easy to see why that horse has been trimmed for the Turners as a consequence. But the improvement Workahead made from Navan - which was his debut under Rules, after all - to Leopardstown was significant and he looks capable of raising his game further when stepping up in trip, so 25/1 for the Turners looks big.

John Ingles: Last year’s Champion Bumper runner-up Romeo Coolio won the Future Champion Novice Hurdle in impressive style and it’s a bit of a surprise he isn’t clear favourite for the Supreme at the moment given his Timeform rating of 150p is a fair bit higher than the others currently prominent in the betting for that race.

Of course, Romeo Coolio disappointed at odds on in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse earlier in December but he looked a different horse from what we could see of him in the fog at Leopardstown, travelling strongly in front and then coming right away on the run-in to win by nine lengths despite making a mess of the final flight. That sets a good standard for the other leading Supreme contenders to aim at.

Who really caught the eye among the handicaps, either in Britain or Ireland?

Matt Brocklebank: Joseph O'Brien's Comfort Zone hasn't run at Cheltenham since winning a Triumph Trial there in January 2023 but will surely be trained with the Coral Cup in mind after such an encouraging effort back over timber in the 2m4f Listed handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on December 29.

He'd won a big handicap off a mark of 86 on the Flat at Naas in October (now rated 94 in that sphere) on his previous outing so it's no surprise he was able to compete from an Irish jumps mark of 133. That could be closer to 140 if coming over to the Festival but he's still got scope for further improvement in this sphere and could hardly be in better hands.

Tony McFadden: She didn't run in a handicap over the festive period but Golden Ace again gave the impression that she'd benefit from a drop back in trip when third in the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year's Day so the County Handicap Hurdle would look like a suitable target at the Festival.

Her defeat of Brighterdayshead in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle at last year's meeting owed more to circumstance than ability, with Golden Ace, who was in receipt of weight, showing the better turn of foot in a muddling race. But that effort underlines the rare speed she possesses which would be better utilised back at two miles. It would be little surprise were she to have the Betfair Hurdle as a target before the Festival.

Cheltenham is unlikely to be on the agenda for I Am Lorenzo this year as you now need five starts over hurdles to qualify for non-novice handicaps, but he's a promising sort who has been given a mark following his close-up second in a Leopardstown maiden on his third start over hurdles. I Am Lorenzo impressed with his strength at the finish - as was also the case at Leopardstown last Christmas - and he looks set to flourish when tackling three miles in handicaps.

John Ingles: Joseph O’Brien had an excellent Christmas period but one of his who didn’t win but shaped really well in defeat was last season’s Fred Winter winner Lark In The Mornin.

He’d been the subject of a gamble when last seen in the Swinton at Haydock in May when finishing fifth under considerably quicker conditions than his win in the mud at Cheltenham. In contrast, he was an easy-to-back joint favourite for this return but caught the eye under a considerate ride in a two-mile handicap at Leopardstown, finishing a never-nearer seventh in the big field behind Enniskerry.

That should set him up nicely for bigger targets later in the season.

And was there a horse whose form was enhanced over the past couple of weeks without even taking to the track themselves?

Matt Brocklebank: There were a number who fit this criteria including the likes of Jonbon (Solness) and Salvator Mundi (Sir Gino) but one who may go a little bit under the radar is Califet En Vol, who evidently bumped into something a bit special in The New Lion in a Newbury novice on November 30 (replay below).

He’s not run since but was only beaten three lengths by Dan Skelton’s easy Challow winner, having previously bolted up on hurdling debut at Kempton.

With a mark of 131, you’d imagine a staying handicap should be easy meat at some point for the Nicky Henderson-trained Califet En Vol, who has plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree and may yet make it at a much higher level himself back on a sound surface as it was good ground when he won so stylishly on his comeback.

Tony McFadden: Jango Baie was Timeform's highest-rated novice hurdler in Britain last season and he created an excellent impression on his chasing debut at Cheltenham last month when powering six and a half lengths clear of Springwell Bay (who was admittedly giving 8 lb).

That was a visually impressive display and it looks even better now following Springwell Bay's emphatic success on his handicap chase debut at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.

There's not a natural option at the Cheltenham Festival this year for Jango Baie as he'd probably be too highly rated for a handicap if qualified in time, he hardly looks to be crying out for a step up in trip to three miles and his stable has red-hot favourite Sir Gino for the Arkle over two miles. But he's likely to be high on the shortlist for two-and-a-half mile graded races such as the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown or Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree's Grand National Festival.

John Ingles: Although he had runners beaten in both races, Willie Mullins will no doubt have taken some positives from a couple of Leopardstown’s maiden hurdles being won by The Enabler and Workahead.

That’s because that pair, trained by Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead respectively, had been no match for Mullins’ Jasmin de Vaux – conqueror of Romeo Coolio in the Champion Bumper – when placed behind him on Jasmin de Vaux’s hurdles debut at Navan.

Jasmin de Vaux beat that pair in clear-cut fashion despite a mixed round of jumping so those recent wins for the placed horses is a big boost to his form ahead of his next run in the Grade 1 Lawlor's of Naas Novice Hurdle on Sunday.

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