Our experts highlight a few horses on the radar this Saturday at Ayr for the Scottish National card and on the Flat at Newbury.
Willie Mullins is sending an armada to Ayr on Saturday – will he snare the Coral Scottish Grand National again?
Andrew Asquith: Last year’s winner Macdermott should appreciate the return to better ground and can’t be ruled out, while Captain Cody is potentially well handicapped stepping into open handicap company for the first time. However, I’ll probably steer clear of the Mullins brigade – perhaps stupid of me – and side with Wiseguy. He looked better than ever when making a winning return at Newbury in November and in both starts since he’s shaped like a horse who is crying out for this marathon trip. The ground will suit him well and a flat, left-handed track is another positive for him. Wiseguy is just 4lb higher in the weights than at Newbury and he has the potential to improve over this longer distance.
Nic Doggett: Probably, which might be a bit dull considering it feels like he has won most races over the last month in which he has had runners. I quite liked High Class Hero but he doesn't run which makes me think Chosen Witness is the clear pick from Closutton. Last year’s runner-up Surrey Quest again looks the pick of the British challenge.
John Ingles: He’s throwing a lot at the race again with another British championship in his sights, including last year’s winner Macdermott. Chosen Witness won at this meeting as well last year, over hurdles, and is the stable’s apparent number one this time, but he hasn’t been let in lightly by the handicapper despite a rather flimsy record of just three runs over fences including an unseat last time. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the Mullins team did the business, but I’d be more interested in the lightly-weighted The Kniphand at an each-way price. Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this with novices before and the way The Kniphand stayed on in the Grimthorpe last time suggests he’ll appreciate the longer trip. He won’t mind the ground drying out, either.
What else are you looking forward to on that card?
Andrew Asquith: I think Rockola Vogue in the UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (14:55) looks interesting now trying three miles for the first time. She proved better than ever at Musselburgh last time under a very confident ride, and she can be marked up further for her performance given the ground she made up in a race where the second and third had the run of it. This is a stronger race, but she races from the same mark, and the stamina in her pedigree suggests she will improve even further for three miles.
Nic Doggett: Tommy’s Oscar was third over hurdles at this meeting way back in 2021 and it’s testament to the now-10-year-old's constitution and consistency that he is back to defend last year’s win in the Scotty Brand Handicap Chase. He’s 1lb lower this time around and was still travelling well when getting rid of Danny McMenamin in a soft-looking unseat three-out at Aintree last week. It’s a quick turnaround, but he didn’t have a tough race there, and this was probably part of the long-term plan regardless. His last 10 wins have come in single figure fields so I'm glad to see just the eight declared.
John Ingles: The first two in last year’s Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (13:10) meet again, though last year’s runner-up Traprain Law is a bit better off at the weights this time with Tommy’s Oscar who’ll have to carry 12-0 again. It’s a bit of a surprise that Traprain Law is still looking for his first win of the season, but he still has age on his side and connections have no doubt had this in mind for him again ever since last year as his owner Ray Green loves winners at this meeting. This is less competitive than the Grand Annual he ran in last time, where he wasn’t disgraced in seventh, and the return to Ayr is very much a plus too.
Simmering is just about favourite for the Fred Darling – who’s on your radar in there?
Andrew Asquith: Simmering brings Group 1 form to the table but there are several who have the potential to progress past her this season, notably Bright Times Ahead and Nardra. Both looked well above average when making their debuts last season, but my preference would be for the former. Bright Times Ahead won a backend novice at Newmarket with plenty in hand, justifying favouritism in style in a race which featured several well-bred types from big yards. She wasn’t at all asked for maximum effort, easily drawing clear under a hand ride, and she has the potential to improve considerably on the bare form of that win.
Nic Doggett: She’s the proven class act isn’t she? And I think her fourth in the Prix Marcel Boussac can be upgraded a little as I’m not sure that a mile is really her trip given the turn of foot that she has shown coupled with her speedy pedigree. With the dry forecast, drop in trip and grade all in her favour, I think Simmering’s the one to beat for Ollie Sangster who recorded a 50% strike-rate last April and is at 29% so far this month. Dan’s Dream (2018), Dandhu (2019), Alcohol Free (2021) and Folgaria (2024) are all recent winners who proved that you can win this from off the pace, too.
John Ingles: Simmering has Group 1 form from last season and it’s interesting that Christophe Soumillon comes over for the ride, but it would be wrong to underestimate what Mountain Breeze has been doing in Dubai this year as she boasts some useful efforts too. If I was looking for one to take a big step forward, though, it would be Ralph Beckett’s filly Bright Times Ahead who made an impressive debut at Newmarket late last year and looks to have a future at this sort of level.
Competitive renewal of the Greenham too – what are your early thoughts?
Andrew Asquith: I like the claims of Jonquil, who created an excellent impression when making a winning debut at Sandown last season. He was immature in the preliminaries on that occasion, and he overcame both inexperience and trouble in running in the race itself. That form had received several boosts since, too, and it was again a lack of maturity which got him beat when an uneasy favourite in the Flying Scotsman when last seen. Jonquil has joined Andrew Balding following the retirement of Sir Michael Stoute and he is just the type to progress markedly as a three-year-old, a good-topped colt who is entitled to be sharper mentally in his warm up for the 2000 Guineas.
Nic Doggett: In contrast to the Fred Darling, you have to go back to the 2018 renewal for a winner – James Garfield – who didn’t race prominently and I think up with the pace is going to be the place to be once again. It’s nagging at me slightly that there appeared to be a change in approach from the Gosden team last year in terms of leaving something to work with on a horse’s first start of the season, so I’d be inclined to take Chancellor on. It’s not been a race that Godolphin have excelled in, but Barney Roy led home a one-two back in 2017, and I can see their representative Al Qudra proving hard to beat once more.
John Ingles: There look to be more in here with scope for improvement than in the Fred Darling field but Coventry winner Rashabar sets a good standard judged on his near-misses in Group 1 company in France later last year when he was still on the upgrade himself, so it will take a smart one to get the better of him. Connections won this with Isaac Shelby a couple of years ago, so that’s encouraging for Rashabar’s chances too.
Can you give us another horse to note this weekend?
Andrew Asquith: The Spring Cup at Newbury looks very interesting and I like one at a massive price. The horse in question is Classic, who frustrated me on more than once occasion last season, but I’m hoping a gelding operation sorts him out as he is a horse with plenty of ability. Classic has plenty of form in competitive handicaps, beaten only a neck at Sandown last season from a mark of 92, and he returns from a 4lb lower mark. He’s reportedly had a racecourse gallop at Newbury recently to try and get the freshness out of him and a change of jockey for the first time in his career could also have a positive effect.
Nic Doggett: Ooh Betty’s worst performances this season have come when held up off the pace but she’s often ridden more prominently and that could prove advantageous for two reasons: Ayr is quite tight and often favours those up with the pace, while most of the leading lights in this Scottish Champion Hurdle are often held up. It might be that she isn’t quite up to this company at the end of a fairly tough season, but I think Ben Clarke’s horses are often underestimated and carrying a light weight could suit this diminutive mare. At prices upwards of 25/1, she’s worth chancing against some more fashionable rivals.
John Ingles: William Haggas won the mile maiden at Newbury with Economics last year so his runner Crown of Oaks is well worth noting in this year’s renewal (15:45). He’s got entries in the 2000 Guineas as well as the Dante which Economics went on to win, though his smart brother English Oak is quite speedy. Crown of Oaks was an eye-catching third in a Newmarket maiden in the autumn after running green so he’s open to loads of improvement (earned the Timeform ‘large P’) and should take some beating.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Free bets
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
