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Expert Panel: Saturday racing tips including Sweet Solera Stakes
Our trio of experts assess the weekend's action, including a couple of important two-year-old races in the Phoenix Stakes and Sweet Solera Stakes.
Is Whistlejacket a banker in the Phoenix Stakes?
Andrew Asquith: In short, yes! Admittedly, Babouche is unbeaten and looks very promising in her own right, but what she has achieved on the figures is a bit behind Whistlejacket, and he looked a potential top-notcher when winning the July Stakes at Newmarket last time. Whistlejacket quickly put a disappointing performance at Royal Ascot behind him, relishing the return to six furlongs, and the manner in which he stretched clear in the closing stages (despite hanging to his left) suggests he has much more to offer. It is worth remembering that his brother, Little Big Bear, won this race and progressed right through his juvenile campaign, and Whistlejacket looks a very worthy favourite to me.
Ian Ogg: The last four favourites, including two trained by Aidan O'Brien, have been beaten which should be enough to sound a note of caution but none has been as short as Whistlejacket will likely be on Saturday. He won easily at Newmarket, appreciating the return to six furlongs and this brother to 2022 Phoenix winner Little Big Bear is hard to look past.
Tony McFadden: This is by no means a formality for Whistlejacket as stablemate Heavens Gate, who is in receipt of a 3 lb sex allowance, comes out only 1 lb inferior on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings, while Ger Lyons' unbeaten filly Babouche has looked an exciting prospect in winning both starts, so there's probably not a great deal of juice in odds-on quotes. That being said, I'd still expect Whistlejacket to emulate his brother Little Big Bear who took this in such impressive fashion two years ago. Whistlejacket failed to meet expectations when only fourth having been sent off an odds-on favourite in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he bounced back in style in the July Stakes at Newmarket, where he relished stepping back up to six furlongs. He was well on top throughout the final furlong there and won with more in hand than the margin of a length and three-quarter would suggest, looking like he could pull out extra if required.
Who do you fancy to come out on top in the Sweet Solera Stakes?
AA: Pretty boring, again, but I think the Aidan O’Brien-trained Lake Victoria is the one they all have to beat. She has an excellent pedigree – out of high-class Quiet Reflection – and she created a deep impression when making a winning debut at the Curragh towards the end of June, impressing with how she travelled and holding off another promising filly (who has bolted up since) in the closing stages. The pair pulled clear of the remainder that day in what has turned out to be a hot race and it is interesting that O’Brien sends her over for this race as it isn’t one he targets (will be his first runner this century). I’d expect her to progress past Mountain Breeze and set herself up for a tilt a Group 1 next time.
IO: This hasn't been a lucky race for Charlie Appleby but Mountain Breeze looks a very solid contender and her greater experience may be key in getting the better of market rival Lake Victoria. She reversed the form of the Albany Stakes with a stablemate of Lake Victoria at Newmarket last time, suggesting that she is improving with racing, and the way she saw out her race offers plenty of encouragement for more progress being forthcoming over this trip.
TM: Charlie Appleby's Mountain Breeze sets a clear standard on form on the back of her runner-up effort in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes here last month and she should be suited by the step up to seven furlongs. However, Aidan O'Brien seems to have remarkable strength in depth among his two-year-old fillies this season and his Lake Victoria is an exciting prospect who can find the required improvement to take this. Lake Victoria, who boasts an excellent pedigree being by Frankel out of dual Group 1 winner Quiet Reflection, started out in a Curragh maiden that O'Brien has tended to target with some of his best fillies down the years (Tuesday, Love, Rhododendron and Alice Springs all contested the race). She showed plenty of ability to win there, just holding on by a head from an impressive subsequent winner with the pair clear, and she is ready for this rise in class.
Who is your biggest fancy at the Shergar Cup meeting?
AA: It is very hard to get away from Solomon in the Shergar Cup Classic (15:55). He absolutely bolted up at Haydock on Sunday and, due to the conditions of that race, is able to race from the same mark here. He has plenty of form in the book, notably when finishing two and a half lengths behind subsequent 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner Notable Speech off level weights. The step up to a mile and a half is entitled to bring out even more progress, too, and his jockey, Alberto Sanna, is a multiple Champion Jockey in the Middle East.
IO: He'll be priced accordingly but it's hard to get away from Solomon in the Classic (15:55). He dotted up at Haydock on Sunday and was taken out of a race at Sandown Thursday evening, presumably to wait for this significantly more valuable contest. Solomon is up in trip again but that shouldn't pose any bother to this half-brother to the same connections' talented Soulcombe and he's hard to oppose.
TM: Jarraaf was an emphatic winner over this course and distance last month and an 8 lb rise in the weights should not be enough to stop this unexposed sprinter following up (15:20). Jarraaf, an impressive winner of a six-furlong novice on his only start at two, was slightly underwhelming on his first couple of starts this season over seven furlongs but he raised his game significantly when dropped in trip here last time. He unsurprisingly proved strong in the finish, powering clear to win with plenty in hand, and it's not impossible that he could make up into better than a handicapper. The presence of Billy Loughnane in the saddle is another positive for Jarraaf.
Is there another horse you’re interested in on Saturday?
AA: I like the claims of Fifty Nifty in the seven-furlong handicap at Newmarket (15:05). He looked above average when making a winning debut at Yarmouth and ran creditably under a penalty in a strong race which is working out well at Doncaster on his next start. Fifty Nifty also shaped better than the bare result on his handicap debut over a mile at this course last time. Fifty Nifty ended up furthest away from where the action unfolded on that occasion, but leading home the far-side group, showing enough to suggest he’s been handed a lenient opening mark, and he is well worth another chance to prove so dropped in trip.
IO: Staying at Ascot, Jarraaf will be popular in the Sprint after an impressive C&D victory last month and landing Billy Loughnane but he should make the market for an each-way interest on Imperial Guard (15:20) whose jockey Nanako Fujita was among the points on her previous Shergar Cup outing. There's nothing wrong with the favourite per se but I don't think we've seen the best of Imperial Guard who hasn't always had the rub of the green his way in his three turf runs. This race often goes to a closer and there looks to be plenty of pace in this year's renewal which will suit his run style and he's capable of a bigger performance than we've seen.
TM: Fifty Nifty wasn't seen to best effect when fourth on his handicap debut at Newmarket last month and he looks interesting in the seven-furlong handicap (15:05) back at the same course. Fifty Nifty impressed with how he moved through that race, looking like he had started out in handicaps from a fair mark, but he was in the unfavoured far-side group and ended up away from the action. He's better than he could show last time and the way he has travelled on all three starts suggests that he has more to offer and shouldn't be inconvenienced by the drop in trip.
Will Inspiral bounce back to complete a Prix Jacques le Marois hat-trick at Deauville on Sunday?
AA: Not for me. I couldn’t possibly back her judged on her two performances so far this season, even if she did look a little more sharper in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. It is interesting that connections are opting for a change of jockey, and who better to call on than Ryan Moore, but it is also worth remembering that her dam, Starscope, ended her career with a Timeform squiggle. It could be that her temperament is getting the better of her as she gets older.
IO: Deauville obviously suits her but she went into last year's race in better form (with the ground a plausible excuse for her run in the Sussex Stakes) than she's shown this season. Perhaps this is her 'happy place' and it would be wonderful to see this smart racemare return to her best but it requires a leap of faith and she will need to be close to her peak to better some upwardly mobile rivals.
TM: Inspiral would be difficult to beat if replicating the sort of form she showed when retaining her Prix Jacques le Marois crown last season, but she's been underwhelming on both starts this season and has a bit to prove now. In contrast, Quddwah is unproven at this level but arrives in excellent order and could be up to the task. The form of his listed win at Ascot was boosted when the second and third also filled those positions behind Charyn in the Queen Anne, and Quddwah then took his record to four from four with a cosy success in the Summer Mile. He remains capable of better.
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