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Expert Panel: Saturday racing tips including King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes
Find out what our experts are thinking heading into Saturday's racing featuring the King George at Ascot and a fascinating Sky Bet York Stakes.
How do you weigh up Auguste Rodin's chances as short-priced favourite for Saturday's King George?
Ben Linfoot: He is obviously highly respected but I personally couldn’t back him at 5/4. Yes, he’s the most likely winner and on his best form I expect him to be in the top three at least, but he might have to go up another gear to win this and we all know he can bomb out due to a flimsy excuse. Indeed, an untimely shower, even if it doesn’t get into the ground, could upset this fellow. I’ll be taking him on and if he wins we’ll shrug the shoulders and move on, like in the Derby and the Irish Champion and the Prince of Wales’s Stakes...
Matt Brocklebank: There have obviously been bumps in the road but he's a wonderful middle-distance horse and his Breeders' Cup Turf win last year was just sensational - from both horse and rider in fairness. Auguste Rodin is clearly versatile in terms of distance and looks highly likely to get his ideal ground on Saturday too, but all that doesn't necessarily mean he's a banker bet as he's only 1lb and 2lb clear of nearest rivals Luxembourg and Rebel's Romance respectively on Timeform's adjusted race ratings.
Nic Doggett: This is Auguste Rodin’s biggest challenge yet – Timeform has Luxembourg just 1 lb behind on weight-adjusted-ratings with Rebel’s Romance a further 1 lb behind him - but the favourite's Prince of Wales’s win hinted that he might have an even better effort in him if pushed and that’s what I expect to see.
The market says Rebel's Romance is his biggest danger - do you agree or could something else lay down a stern challenge in the weekend feature?
Ben Linfoot: You have to agree as he brings some noteworthy international form to the table and he is capable of running fast over this distance, we know that. He has also been red-hot after a two-month break the last couple of times he has had such an intermission in his schedule which tells you Charlie Appleby, who is in great form, has got a handle on this horse and his abilities now, as you would expect for a man of his talents. I think Sunway probably needs a stiffer test and I think Bluestocking probably needs easier ground, so if anyone can muscle in on the big two I’d say it could be Luxembourg, but Rebel's Romance looks the biggest danger to Gus.
Matt Brocklebank: As touched upon above, the favourite's superiority on form isn't quite as great as the betting market would have you think and, with question marks over the quick ground for Bluestocking and Luxembourg surely a better animal over 10 furlongs, it's the six-year-old Rebel's Romance who looks the main threat. Charlie Appleby has made it very clear he'll only be running in domestic Group 1s if he think his horses are up to winning so that's a pretty significant nod in itself toward a horse so far unbeaten (4-4) in Britain. His Longines Dubai Sheema Classic victory, when beating three quality Japanese raiders and Emily Upjohn, reads very well in any company and, like Auguste Rodin, he should be well suited by what looks like being a strong pace. He may even see it out a fraction stronger than the Ballydoyle horse and on balance I think he's the bet in the race.
Nic Doggett: Geldings of all ages don’t actually have a great record over the last decade (only one third-placed finish from 11 runners) and I think tactics will be crucial as Luxembourg and Hans Anderson will ensure no let-up for Rebel’s Romance if he is ridden in his usual manner. I can see one of the hold-up horses producing an improved performance as a result and, with the ground in his favour, Middle Earth is an each-way bet at around 12/1.
Give us another name to note among the Listed/Group races on the Ascot card...
Ben Linfoot: I really liked how New Century went about his business at Doncaster last time and he looks a major player in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes under Oisin Murphy. His jockey is slightly concerned that the speedier types might be too nippy for him but the son of Kameko is clearly held in high regard and he might well get away with seven furlongs on this track at this stage of his progression.
Matt Brocklebank: Simmering has yet to win a race which is hardly a compelling case for her ahead of Ascot's Group 3 Princess Margaret but she was an almighty eyecatcher on debut at York in May and very nearly landed the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, just collared close to the finish by a brilliantly-ridden Fairy Godmother. Al Shaqab Racing have since bought into the daughter of Too Darn Hot and she should be very hard to beat with a reproduction of the last run, especially with Moore in for the ride on this occasion and that course experience to draw upon.
Nic Doggett: Aviation Time in the Princess Margaret looks likely to appreciate the step back up to six furlongs. She got no sort of run in the Hilary Needler, ran a belter when a staying-on third in the Windsor Castle, and then wasn’t at her best (hampered and eased) when well held at Deauville last time. This sort of ground looks ideal and double-figure prices look generous.
Who is most likely to emerge on top in the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes?
Ben Linfoot: Alflaila showed a rapid turn of foot to win this race last year and he’s clearly blessed with speed at this level which could be vital on a flat track like York. I certainly think the Knavesmire suits him better than Leopardstown and Ascot where he has been beaten at the top level the last twice and it would be no surprise to see Owen Burrows’ charge go back-to-back.
Matt Brocklebank: A compelling race from every angle but I think the sole three-year-old King's Gambit could on the fast-track to the top table. He was put up a full stone in the ratings for his impressive London Gold Cup win at Newbury but very nearly lived up to his lofty reputation when looking an unlucky loser from off the pace in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at the Royal meeting last time. The two horses he split were to the fore from the off and it looked a piece of form to be marking up quite considerably. Further improvement looks highly likely and he seems quite tactically versatile which will be an asset in this smaller field. Main dangers Passenger and Alflaila have obviously had their physically issues but have to be massively respected nevertheless.
Nic Doggett: I’m interested in Royal Rhyme but the likely quick ground is a big worry and I think this looks Passenger’s level, really. He was unlucky in the Dante over C&D and his reappearance win at Chester hinted at bigger things to come. I can’t see there being lots of pace, which may mean that likely front-runner Ancient Rome rates a bit of value, but I think it will inconvenience Alflaila most.
And who is the one handicapper punters should be keeping a close eye on this weekend?
Ben Linfoot: I would think there is plenty more to come from Sir Michael Stoute’s More Thunder who makes his handicap debut in the Servus Handicap over the extended 10 furlongs at Chester on Saturday (5.50).
Matt Brocklebank: He's not doubt burnt a few fingers since making the move to North Yorkshire from Sir Michael Stoute's yard, but Theme Park is now becoming too well handicapped to ignore and shaped pretty well in a similar event over 10 furlongs here last time. The drop back to a mile doesn't look an issue providing there's enough pace on and this horse might just be able to open his account for Nigel Tinkler from what is a career-low mark of 78.
Nic Doggett: Fresh in the International. He returns once more to the scene of his finest moments, his four career wins including three in Berkshire, most notably back-to-back handicap wins over C&D - including this race - in 2022. He’s very well handicapped now after a long winless run but shaped well from off the pace (had to wait for gaps) in the Buckingham Palace before chasing home an exciting three-year-old over six furlongs last month.
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