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Expert Panel: Doncaster and the Irish Champions Festival
Ben Linfoot, Dave Ord and Tony McFadden share their thoughts ahead of the top-class racing at Doncaster, Leopardstown and the Curragh.
Who do you think will come out on top in the St Leger?
Ben Linfoot: It’s not that inspiring a race this year and I’m struggling to muster enthusiasm from a betting perspective, as well. Of course, much will depend on what Aidan O’Brien does and while the market clearly suggests Los Angeles isn’t coming over I don’t think there’s an awful lot between his trio that do dominate the betting. Grosvenor Square has been a horse on my radar for staying contests ever since Chester and he showcased what he can do in a 20-length romp over a mile and three-quarters at the Curragh last time at odds of 1/2. We’ll see if he comes over and we’ll see who rides him, but he’s firmly on the radar.
Dave Ord: There isn't much between those at the top of the market on Timeform ratings. Illinois is rock-solid but looks short enough at around 7/4. I can definitely see the case for You Got To Me who promises to stay this trip and her Irish Oaks win and Yorkshire Oaks second represent form as good as anything in the race. But I just feel Jan Brueghel will have learned plenty from what was only his third career start in the Gordon Stakes.
He was still clearly rough around the edges but found plenty when challenged by Bellum Justum with seemingly more under the bonnet too. This will bring his seemingly abundant stamina more into play and I think he can improve past his more exposed rivals a result.
Tony McFadden: Jan Brueghel made heavy weather of justifying short-price favouritism in the Gordon Stakes over a mile and a half, but he was conceding 3 lb to a smart and more experienced rival in Bellum Justum and there was a lot to like about how he toughed it out after coming under pressure with more than half a mile to run. There was understandably still an element of rawness to the display on just his third start so he's entitled to be sharper for the experience, while the way he kept pulling out extra when challenged suggests that he ought to relish the step up in trip to this extended mile and three-quarters. Unlike his stablemates, Jan Brueghel still has the Timeform 'p' to denote he's likely to improve and it is that potential for progress that gives him the edge.
Is there anything else on your radar for the St Leger Festival?
BL: I’m really looking forward to seeing John & Thady Gosden’s Chancellor after he was so impressive in a Doncaster novice over seven furlongs in the middle of August. That form was franked when runner-up Brave Mission won at Kempton a few days ago and the Cheveley Park-owned juvenile looks another talented son of Kingman that can boost the Gosdens as they look to plan for next year. He could run in the Flying Scotsman on Friday or the Champagne Stakes on Saturday, though the weight of money for him on Tuesday suggests he's running in the latter.
DO: I'm very interested in Coto De Daza in Friday's Flying Childers. There are some teak-tough sprinting juveniles lining up here who have already been in action at the major festivals including Aesterius, Big Mojo and Tropical Island but the selection has been learning her trade in calmer waters.
Having shaped with abundant promise on debut at Lingfield, she ran away with a minor event at Beverley next and improved again to beat Storm Call by two-and-a-half lengths at Goodwood two weeks later. A strong traveller with a change of gear, she looks the perfect type for this race and doesn't have bundles to find (five pounds adrift of the top-rated on Timeform but still with a p indicating the prospect of more to come) on what she's shown so far. It will be fascinating to see how high she can fly.
TM: Firebird looked unlucky not to make it three from three for Paddy Twomey when narrowly denied at Naas last time and she still has more to offer. A highly encouraging second on her only start for Rebecca Menzies as a juvenile last season, Firebird had little problem winning a Cork maiden and a weak Naas conditions stakes on her first couple of starts for her new stable this summer. The Group 3 Ballyogan Stakes represented a steep rise in class for the promising Firebird but she looked right at home in that sort of company and impressed with how she quickened up to readily pull clear of those who raced towards the far side. She was headed close home by one who came up the stand rail on a day when such a track position proved advantageous, but she looked the best prospect in that race and looks capable of taking another step forward if faced with more favourable circumstances in Sunday's Sceptre Fillies' Stakes.
What's your view on the Irish Champion Stakes?
BL: It’s set up nicely with Team Ballydoyle attempting to squeeze another Group 1 out of Auguste Rodin and they’ll be hoping for a repeat of last year. Economics looks a genuine top-notcher in waiting, though, so we’re all set for a fascinating contest. I also wouldn’t rule out a big run from Ghostwriter and he, of course, brings the City Of Troy form line to the table. I’m not sure who I’ll back yet, but I can’t see it being Auguste as he’s just too mercurial to trust at short prices for my money, especially when there are such appealing alternatives.
DO: I'll be intrigued as to how they ride Economics because he faces a Ballydoyle armada on Saturday and hold-up tactics have been very difficult to successfully deploy in this race in recent years.
It will be teed up to perfection for Auguste Rodin if this is one of his going days, and a positive ride on decent ground at ten furlongs serves him ideally. I agree with Fran Berry, this doesn't look an 11/10 v 3/1 match-up. I'd have them closer than that and I think the home favourite might just be ready to go back-to-back in the Irish Champion.
TM: Auguste Rodin has a fantastic CV, for all there have been some high-profile blowouts, but even if he bounces back to the sort of level he showed when winning the Irish Champion Stakes last year it might not be enough to deny Economics who looks like a top-class colt in the making. Economics has yet to compete at Group 1 level but the style of his win in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano on his return from a three-month break suggests he can make a big impact at the highest level. That potential hasn't been missed and he's a short-price favourite at around evens, but I'd rather be with him than the field.
Who is your banker at the Irish Champions Festival?
BL: Giavellotto in the Irish St Leger. I think he’s improved significantly at five and a mile and three-quarters around the Curragh is perfect for him. Kyprios might be odds-on favourite, but I think he’s vulnerable to a very good horse over the distance and Giavellotto is just that.
DO: Bradsell in the Flying Five. The sprinters this season have been much of a muchness and they're not a vintage bunch but he looked better than ever when winning the Nunthorpe at York last time on only his second start of the campaign. He was racing on the best part of the track that day and that has to be factored but he was good value for his winning margin over Believing. She looks the main danger again on Sunday but the more I watch the York replay, the more I struggle to see her reversing the form. He looks too quick.
TM: The seven-furlong fillies' maiden at the Galway Festival has a roll of honour that includes subsequent classic winners Legatissimo, Hermosa and Tahiyra, and the latest winner, Bubbling, also looked like a good prospect as she pulled five lengths clear despite still seeming a bit green. She is likely to take plenty of beating in the opening fillies' listed race at Leopardstown on Saturday, though no prices are currently available and there's the potential for the race to cut up a bit.
Later on the card, I'd be sweet on the chances of Sumiha in the Group 3 over a mile and a half. She was a smooth winner of the Munster Oaks when last seen in June and the strength with which she travels suggests she has the potential to do better after only four starts. Trainer Dermot Weld has a fine record in this race so it's likely this has been the plan.
Are there any short-price favourites at the Irish Champions Festival or St Leger Festival who you think look vulnerable?
BL: Well, obviously Kyprios for the reasons given above and I think his stablemate Illinois is short, as well, in the Betfred St Leger itself. I get why he’s found himself to the top of the market after his Great Voltigeur run, but he’s not an easy horse to win with and I wouldn’t be convinced he’s even the best St Leger candidate in his own yard. Bedtime Story is another who I would have no qualms about taking on in the Moyglare, as she didn’t impress last time out when sent off at odds of 1/16 and I just wonder if one or two of her contemporaries might’ve caught up with her now.
DO: Do we count 5/2 as short? If so Kinross, as admirable as he is, is one in the Park Stakes on Saturday. He's seven now, not been operating quite at his best in three starts this season and it's now five runs since he last tasted success. There are a few with solid chances in against him too. I wouldn't be in a rush to back Sweet William at 7/4 in the Doncaster Cup either. That's too short given there's little on the formbook to suggest he has much - if anything - in hand of some of these.
TM: Bedtime Story has won all four starts and is clearly the one to beat in the Moyglare based on what she showed in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, her unbeaten stablemate Lake Victoria has also created an excellent impression and I think could well prove the pick of an exceptionally strong crop of juvenile fillies at Ballydoyle this season. She was well on top in the Sweet Solera Stakes last time and looks capable of taking another big step forward so would get my vote if allowed to take her chance in the Moyglare.
Kyprios isn't a horse to oppose lightly as he completely dominated the staying division in 2022, winning all six starts, and he's looked back to something like his best this year after he endured a truncated campaign last season. However, Giavellotto is a better horse, and certainly a quicker one, than the rivals Kyprios has been beating this season and he looks a big player in the Irish St Leger. Kyprios is a stout stayer and it wouldn't surprise me if Giavelloto, who was an impressive winner over a mile and a half last time, had too much toe over this mile-and-three-quarter trip.
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