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2018 Grand National Tips: Essential statistics, trends and pointers for Aintree
Ben Linfoot looks through the horses that are 'well-in' at the weights, have form over the Aintree fences, have proven stamina and more ahead of the Grand National on Saturday.
Horses 'well in' at the weights
- Anibale Fly – 9lb (Rated 168, races off 159)
- Regal Encore – 4lb (Rated 154, races off 150)
- Shantou Flyer – 4lb (Rated 157, races off 153)
Anibale Fly will be the horse most 'well-in' at the weights in this year's Randox Health Grand National.
Now rated 168 after an excellent third in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup, he gets to race off a 9lb lower mark at Aintree and given the way he finished his race at the Festival it could well be that he'll relish the stamina test as well.
He took a heavy fall in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February and isn't the most fluent of jumpers, while he has no experience of Aintree, either.
However, despite that, he looks to have the most obvious form claims and should arguably be favourite following his Cheltenham exploits. Crucially, because of the timing of Easter, there is an extra week's recovery time this year between Cheltenham and Aintree.
That will also help Shantou Flyer following a terrific effort at Cheltenham, while Regal Encore will go into the race after a 56-day break - exactly the same number of days he had off prior to his latest win at Ascot.
Horses with form over the fences/at the track
Grand National
- Blaklion 4th 2017
- The Last Samuri 2nd 2016, 16th 2017
- Perfect Candidate PU 2017
- Shantou Flyer PU 2017
- Tenor Nivernais 17th 2017
- Vicente Fell 2017
- Regal Encore 8th 2017
- Vieux Lion Rouge 7th 2016, 6th 2017
- Gas Line Boy Fell 2015, 5th 2017
- Pleasant Company 9th 2017
- Ucello Conti 6th 2016, UR 2017
- Saint Are 9th 2013, 2nd 2015, PU 2016, 3rd 2017
- Raz De Maree 8th 2014, UR 2017
- Maggio 10th 2015
- Pendra 13th 2016
- Buywise 12th 2016
- Houblon Des Obeaux 10th 2017
- Lord Windermere PU 2015, 7th 2017
- Double Ross PU 2016
- Thunder And Roses UR 2017
Plenty of horses in this year's National have experienced the famous race before. Four of this year's runners have placed in the first four in the race before; Blaklion, The Last Samuri, and Saint Are. There are no previous winners running this year.
Blaklion runs off a mark 9lb higher than when he was fourth last year, The Last Samuri is 10lb higher than when he was second and the 12-year-old Saint Are is on exactly the same mark of 147 as when third last year.
Topham Chase
- Bless The Wings 9th 2015
- Double Ross 5th 2014 Topham
Not much to see here apart from perhaps some vital Aintree experience for Bless The Wings.
He is 13 now and it's surprising he's yet to run in the Aintree spectacular, but he didn't really take to the famous spruce when making mistakes on his way to a 45-length ninth in the 2015 Topham.
Becher Chase
- Blaklion 1st 2017
- The Last Samuri 3rd 2016, 2nd 2017
- Vieux Lion Rouge 1st 2016, 7th 2017
- Ucello Conti 4th 2016
- Saint Are 3rd 2014, 7th 2015, Fell 2016
- Beeves 8th 2016
- Lord Windermere Fell 2017
Several National regulars ply their trade in the Becher earlier in the season and that's been the case for Saint Are, Vieux Lion Rouge and The Last Samuri the last couple of years.
This season's Becher was all about Blaklion, though, his nine-length victory over The Last Samuri off a mark of 153 the major reason as to why he's disputing favouritism at around 12/1.
Grand Sefton
- Gas Line Boy 1st 2017
- Captain Redbeard 6th 2017
- Double Ross 5th 2015
Winning form in the Grand Sefton for Gas Line Boy enhances his chances for the big one, while Captain Redbeard was stopped in his run when hampered at the fourth last this season.
He was going well at the time and has run well since, so he's a possible lively outsider towards the bottom of the weights.
Mildmay Course
- Blaklion – 3rd to Native River G1
- Virgilio – Very good, won three times
- Maggio – Won handicap chase
- Seeyouatmidnight – 3rd 2014 Sefton Novices' Hurdle
- Saint Are – Won G1 hurdle, won Mildmay handicap
- Houblon Des Obeaux - 3rd 2011 Aintree G1 Juv Hurdle
Plenty of recent Grand National winners have had good previous form on the conventional course. Mon Mome, Don't Push It, Neptune Collonges and Many Clouds had all either won or been placed on the Mildmay Course prior to their National successes.
Neptune Collonges was third in the Sefton as a novice hurdler, which bodes well for Seeyouatmidnight, while the handicap chase wins for Mon Mome and Don't Push It gives hope to Dan Skelton's Virgilio, a horse that bolted up off just a 3lb lower mark than the one he races off in the National when he won at the Liverpool track last May.
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Supreme Stayers
(Won over 3m5f+ / placed over 4 miles)
- Blaklion – Placed 2017 National
- The Last Samuri – Placed 2016
- Vicente – Won Scottish National 2016, 17
- Tiger Roll – Won 2017 4 miler, Won 2018 X Country
- Chase The Spud – Won 2017 Midlands National
- Seeyouatmidnight – 3rd 2016 Scottish National
- Saint Are – 2nd 2015 Grand National, 3rd 2017 Grand National
- Raz De Maree – Won 2018 Welsh National
- I Just Know – Won Catterick Handicap 2018
- Bless The Wings – Won Dec X Country 2017
- Milansbar – Won Classic Chase Warwick 2018, 2nd Midlands National 2016, 18
It might not be quite four-and-a-half miles anymore, but the official distance of 4m2f74y still takes some getting and it's no surprise horses that have proven themselves over long distances before have gone well.
Comply Or Die won the Eider Chase over four miles less than two months before his 2008 National win, Mon Mome had been second in a Welsh National and Classic Chase before his 100/1 shocker in 2009, Auroras Encore had been second in a Scottish National before his 66/1 Aintree success in 2013 and One For Arthur had won the Warwick Classic Chase before he won last year.
There's a big list to go through above this time around, but the interesting one could be Vicente. He got no further than the first fence in last year's Grand National, but won the Scottish version for the second time just two weeks later.
He started his season well when a neck second to Perfect Candidate at Cheltenham in November, but has gone off the boil in two starts subsequently. The winter ground is a viable excuse for him, however, and if conditions turn up on the Good side he'd have to be considered.
Grade One Form (placed in a G1)
- Blaklion – Won 2016 RSA Chase
- Anibale Fly – 2nd 2016 Drinmore, 3rd 2018 Gold Cup
- Valseur Lido – Won 2014 Drinmore, 2nd 2015 Flogas, 3rd 2015 JLT, 1st 2015 Champion Nov Punchestown, 2nd 2015 John Durkan, 2nd 2016 Ryanair, 1st 2016 JNWine Down Royal
- Alpha Des Obeaux – 2nd Punchestown 2015 Champion Novice Hurdle, 2nd 2015 Hatton’s Grace, 2nd 2015 Christmas Hurdle Leopardstown, 2nd 2016 World Hurdle, 3rd 2016 Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdle,
- Shantou Flyer – 2nd 2017 Ascot Chase
- Carlingford Lough – Won Topaz Leopardstown 2013, Won Growise Novice Punchestown 2014, Won Irish Gold Cup 2015, 16, Won Punchestown Gold Cup 2016
- Tiger Roll – Won 2014 Triumph, 2nd 2014 Spring Juvenile
- Regal Encore – 2nd 2013 Champion Bumper
- Seeyouatmidnight – 3rd 2014 Sefton
- Saint Are – Won 2011 Sefton
- Pendra – 2nd 2013 Tolworth
- Houblon Des Obeaux – 2nd 2011 Finale Hurdle, 3rd 2011 Aintree G1 Juv Hurdle
- Lord Windermere – Won 2013 RSA Chase, Won 2014 Gold Cup
- Double Ross – 3rd 2014 JLT
- Road To Riches – Won 2014 Lexus Chase, Won 2014 JNWine.com Chase, 2nd 2016 Irish Gold Cup, 3rd (x4)
In recent years, thanks to the way this race is handicapped and the modifications to the fences, top-class horses have been running more and winning more.
Neptune Collonges won in 2012 having been previously third in a Cheltenham Gold Cup, Many Clouds won in 2015 having run in three Grade Ones and Rule The World won at 33/1 in 2016 having run six times at the top level.
He was owned by Gigginstown and, unsurprisingly, they are responsible for the prolific Grade One runners this year - if they turn up. Valseur Lido, Alpha Des Obeaux, Tiger Roll and Road To Riches are all possibles this year and they have run at the top level 47 times between them.
First-time out since wind surgery
- Virgilio
- Blaklion
- Pendra
Blaklion was arguably unfortunate to be only fourth last year and set the record straight with a resounding success in this season's Becher.
Virgilio has some excellent Aintree form, all on the Mildmay track, and it's not a surprise he's been sent for wind surgery with connections citing a wind problem before.
He'd probably need good ground and he's never tackled the fences, but he's handicapped to go well and if the procedure works he's a very lively outsider.
Pendra has a lot to prove currently.
Big Softies
Horses that have won over fences on Soft or worse ground...
- Blaklion (Soft x1, Heavy x2)
- The Last Samuri (Soft x2)
- Total Recall (Soft x1, Soft/Heavy x1)
- Alpha Des Obeaux (Soft/Heavy x1)
- Perfect Candidate (Soft x3, Heavy x1)
- Shantou Flyer (Soft x1, Soft/Heavy x1)
- Tenor Nivernais (Soft x4)
- Carlingford Lough (Soft x1, Heavy x1)
- Tiger Roll (Soft x1)
- Regal Encore (Soft x2)
- Vieux Lion Rouge (Soft x1)
- Chase The Spud (Soft x2, Heavy x2)
- Warriors Tale (Soft x1)
- Seeyouatmidnight (Heavy x2)
- Gas Line Boy (Soft x1, Heavy x1)
- The Dutchman (Heavy x1)
- Pleasant Company (Heavy x2)
- Ucello Conti (Very Soft x2)
- Beeves (Soft x2)
- Raz De Maree (Soft x2, Soft/Heavy x1, Heavy x1)
- I Just Know (Soft x3)
- Baie Des Iles (Soft, Heavy x2)
- Maggio (Soft x1)
- Pendra (Heavy x1)
- Buywise (Heavy x4)
- Childrens List (Soft x1)
- Lord Windermere (Soft x1)
- Captain Redbeard (Heavy x1)
- Houblon Des Obeaux (Soft x2)
- Bless The Wings (Soft/Heavy x1)
- Milansbar (Soft x2)
- Final Nudge (Soft x2, Heavy)
- Double Ross (Soft x1)
- Road To Riches (Soft/Heavy x2)
- Delusionofgrandeur (Soft x1)
- Walk In The Mill (Soft x2, Very Soft x1)
With the Grand National course officially Soft, Good to Soft in places on Tuesday morning (10/04/2018) and more rain forecast, we could well be looking at a very testing Grand National.
As you can see from the list above, there are plenty of mud lovers in the line-up. Perhaps, then, it's more useful to mention the horses that aren't there.
Anibale Fly has won on Yielding to Soft at best over the bigger obstacles, while Saint Are hated the last Soft ground National he ran in but bounces off the better spring ground in Liverpool. Virgilio is another that has excelled on much better conditions at this track.