Our man tipped Haydock winner Pogo at 10/1 in Saturday's column - don't miss his preview and two selections for Cazoo Oaks day at Epsom on Friday.
Value Bet tips: Friday June 3
1pt win Carolus Magnus in 2.35 Epsom at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred)
1pt win Arqoob in 3.45 Epsom at 28/1 (William Hill)
Already advised:
More than happy with long-range position on Hall
Concert Hall remains firmly atop the shortlist for Friday’s Cazoo Oaks, having eased back out to just a couple of points shorter than when initially recommending Aidan O’Brien’s filly for the Epsom Classic just under a month ago.
The week after her striking Salsabil Stakes victory was franked by Cairde Go Deo and Tranquil Lady – who reopposes – Concert Hall was largely forgotten about again as Emily Upjohn won the Musidora and stablemate Nashwa the Listed trial at Newbury.
The John and Thady Gosden-trained duo have obviously looked the part in their respective races but their form isn’t quite there yet and doesn’t really justify quite how short they are in the betting. We’ve been here before when it comes to getting a bit carried away with British trial winners for Epsom Classics, and I much prefer the tried-and-tested Group One conditioning that O’Brien tends to work towards.
Tuesday and Concert Hall were trading at a very similar price earlier in the week – the latter the shorter of the two with the odd firm – and one wonders whether Ryan Moore found it hard picking between the two of them.
In the end it seems the most obvious conclusion has materialised - Seamie Heffernan, who rode Concert Hall’s dam Was to victory as the supposed Ballydoyle second-string here in 2012, getting the ride on the daughter of Dubawi, with Moore stick with Curragh runner-up Tuesday. He may well have been cursing his luck having been handed the notoriously tricky stall one at Wednesday's final declaration stage.
There’s not much between them at all based on their placings behind Homeless Songs in the Irish 1,000 Guineas but Concert Hall’s effort smacked of a perfect prep race, and she was the one finishing with most purpose. A first crack at this mile and a half trip looks guaranteed to bring about improvement and I’m not convinced there is all that much to find with Emily Upjohn anyway.
At five times the price of Concert Hall, Kawida is possibly one to consider.
She had With The Moonlight and subsequent Nell Gwyn second Almohandesah behind when winning a mile Listed race at Newmarket in October and her seasonal reappearance run in a slowly-run Saint-Cloud Group Three surely didn’t see her in her best light.
A half-sister to Zaaki, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ed Walker’s horse keep improving with racing and if the heavy showers had been due to hit the track on Friday, rather than Saturday, she could well have found herself creeping onto the staking plan.
As it stands I’ll sit tight in the feature – though could find myself pressing up the antepost position should Concert Hall get any bigger on the morning of the race.
Magnus attractive for Balding and Probert
The Dahlbury Coronation Cup doesn’t look much of a betting heat but there are good opportunities to unearth value elsewhere on the card and CAROLUS MAGNUS looks worth another chance in the World Pool Handicap, a race his trainer Andrew Balding won with Highland Knight 10 years ago.
He too was having his third start of the season and Carolus Magnus, who signed off last year with a Newmarket victory, comes into this on the back of a couple creditable efforts back at HQ earlier in the spring.
Racing twice during April, he ended up a close fifth having been among several helping to force a strong gallop out in front when sent off 9/4 favourite first time back, before looking to have an almost impossible task trying to give weight (before Harry Davies’ claim factored in) to handicap blot Legend Of Dubai last time.
Legend Of Dubai, who was second to Lone Eagle as a juvenile in 2020 and won his sole start at three, has gone up to a mark of 96 for his four and a quarter-length defeat of Carolus Magnus, while the third that day, Eilean Dubh, has since won two competitive handicaps in the Sky Bet Sunday Series at Hamilton and York.
Eilean Dubh has gone up to 90 now so the selection getting another chance off the same mark gives him a very realistic chance, and Balding has elected to remove the hood he’s worn the last twice which could be a statement of intent.
This horse has only ever won for Oisin Murphy and probably isn’t alone among the yard’s representatives to be missing the champion jockey’s touch this time around (stable strike-rate for April-May down appreciably on last year), but David Probert knows him pretty well too and should theoretically be able to pick up a reasonable slot from gate 11, with the four horses drawn immediately to his inside relatively slow starters.
Last-time-out winners Totally Charming and Excel Power are dangerous from stalls one and five respectively, but double-figure prices about Carolus Magnus are too tempting as he’s one of a few for Balding who looks to have been geared towards this fixture for a little while.
Look to big-priced closer in 10-furlong handicap
The Cazoo Handicap looks all about Moktasaab as he’s potentially still well ahead of the game having gone up just 5lb for his latest Goodwood triumph. He's done it on on galloping tracks and on sharp tracks now so this place shouldn’t hold many fears, and he’s unlikely to be too far off the early pace which is often a plus around Epsom.
However, Moktasaab isn’t being missed in the market and with three or four other genuine pace-setters in this line-up, it could be worth chancing one at a bigger price who will come from off the speed.
That leads to ARQOOB, who won't have much choice but to be dropped in from stall 12, with so much speed on the inside, but would naturally look to adopt that sort of position anyway.
He’s now 10lb higher than for the second of his two handicap wins in 2021 but only 6lb higher than when second to Kettle Hill at Sandown in September, a race in which Carolus Magnus was a length and a half back in third.
Arqoob then had a couple of (creditable) runs on the all-weather before being campaigned on turf in Bahrain over the winter, where he performed consistently well and probably should have won first time up there on December 10.
🗣️ "I think this is his day...I think stepping back up to a mile and a half, we'll see the real HD this afternoon!"
— Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) June 3, 2022
🏇💰 Join @Franmberry, @SkyBetShinners and Ben Linfoot as the team set the scene ahead of Cazoo Oaks Day at @EpsomRacecourse, and run through their best bets... pic.twitter.com/jKYVHhixIA
He didn’t get the race run to suit when third at Sakhir when last seen in February but the winner has gone in again at Listed level so it’s probably not bad form and Arqoob looks to have unfinished business back in this country.
The four-year-old must have a truly-run contest which looks assured, while he’ll appreciate any drying of the ground – his two wins last term coming on good to firm going. There may just be a bit of unfinished business with the son of Estidhkaar back in this country and the standout 28/1 with Hills looks plenty big enough.
Published at 1530 BST on 02/06/22
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