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Epsom Derby tips: Guide to the 2022 Classic including Desert Crown, Stone Age and Changingoftheguard
Cazoo Derby (Group 1)
- When: 4.30, Saturday June 4
- Where: Epsom Downs Racecourse, Surrey
- TV: ITV1 & Racing TV (Sky channel 426)
- Odds: Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Racecard & FREE video form
CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD 🌟🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: Not too dissimilar to Stone Age in that he's a Galileo colt who failed to win at two but has stepped up to the plate in a major way this time around. Landed skinny odds in Dundalk maiden before a canny Ryan Moore ride (dictated gallop) saw him readily follow up in the Group Three Chester Vase (replay below). Not much doubting his stamina on that evidence (soft ground) and very hard to suggest we've seen the best of him yet so impossible to discount.
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DESERT CROWN 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: Hugely promising and already very talented colt. Won his maiden in good style on soft ground at Nottingham last November before slight spring hold-up meant he didn't make his comeback until last month's Dante Stakes at York. Overcame inexperience and quicker surface there to beat Royal Patronage by three and a quarter lengths, shaping very much like there was more to come. No obvious reason he won't stay a mile and a half given he's by Nathaniel, and his master trainer obviously rates him extremely highly.
EL HABEEB 🌟
Analysis: Bred by owner who was clearly keen to have a shot having supplemented the once-raced colt at the five-day stage. Precious little chance of making his mark based on sole outing to date, when fifth of six in a Listed race at Newmarket in mid-May.
GLORY DAZE 🌟
Analysis: Failed to win a maiden at two and down the field in Leopardstown Group Three in October. Improved to win Curragh maiden over 10 furlongs on April 10 before chasing home Stone Age at Leopardstown last time. Has considerable work to do if he's to reverse that form.
GRAND ALLIANCE 🌟🌟
Analysis: Steadily progressive son of Churchill and only beaten half a length by Nahanni in the Listed Blue Riband Trial here in April. Staying on that day to suggest he'll cope with a mile and a half in the right sort of company, but could be biting off a bit more than he can chew this weekend.
HOO YA MAL 🌟
Analysis: York maiden winner who doesn't have a mass amount to recommend him in terms of Classic potential and was slammed seven lengths by Nations Pride at Newmarket when last seen at the end of April.
MASEKELA 🌟🌟
Analysis: Still a sense of him having more to offer in quality races heading to York last month but he let himself down by getting upset in the stalls and was withdrawn. Far from the ideal prep, then, and on the face of it he has enough to find with several of these rivals including Royal Patronage, who was ahead of him at Newmarket last season, and Eydon, who beaten him handsomely in the Feilden.
NAHANNI 🌟🌟
Analysis: Looks quite a big price on the face of it but latest Epsom win was recently described as "rugged" by Lydia Hislop and it's hard to disagree with that assessment. The form hasn't worked out too badly at all with United Nations and Mighty Ulysses - the fourth and fifth - winning since, although connections adding Nations Pride into the mix as well doesn't seem like a ringing endorsement of this Frankel colt's claims. Could lack a turn of foot at a crucial stage.
11 of the 17 runners (65%) in Saturday's Cazoo Derby at @EpsomRacecourse are either sons or grandsons of the late, great Galileo.
— Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) June 2, 2022
The King 👑 pic.twitter.com/suJ0QQVEAk
NATIONS PRIDE 🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: Supplemented into the race at Monday's final forfeit stage and hard to imagine that decision was too taxing given he's won his last four starts (runner-up on debut at Yarmouth), improving with every outing along the way. Only a small-field Listed race he won at Newmarket when last seen and the form has yet to be tested in the main, but he was an easy winner over a 105-rated rival and evidently has plenty of gears. Quite whether he'll stay the Derby trip as well as some has to be in question but he remains an exciting prospect.
PIZ BADILE 🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: From the same family as former Oaks winner Light Shift but plenty of his dam's relatives were best around 10 furlongs and hard to know whether the step up to what seems highly likely to be a strongly-run a mile and a half will place too much emphasis on stamina. Toughed it out to beat Buckaroo in the Ballysax at Leopardstown when last seen, put away for this since and fair chance his obvious class will get him a long way under Frankie Dettori in this event.
ROYAL PATRONAGE 🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: Ran six times as a two-year-old, winning half of his starts including the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes from subsequent 2000 Guineas hero Coroebus. Looked to get close to matching that level of performance when upped to 10 furlongs in York's Dante Stakes, though he couldn't live with Desert Crown on the Knavesmire and hopes now pinned on another rise in distance unlocking further improvement. Pedigree suggests that could be the case so not to be dismissed from calculations by any means.
SONNY LISTON 🌟
Analysis: Struck gold at first time of asking in Sandown novice event over seven furlongs last summer but subsequently spent 286 days off the track and although two efforts this spring have hardly been devoid of promise, he suddenly has a mountain to climb just to get close to some of these rivals. Hold-up style may help him pass tired rivals late on but he'll need to settle better too so very much opposable on balance.
STAR OF INDIA 🌟🌟
Analysis: Thrice-raced son of Galileo so realistic to assume we're only just scratching the surface in terms of where his true capabilities lie but definitely improved somewhere in the region of 10lb on his limp Craven effort to win the Listed Dee Stakes (10 furlongs) at Chester last time and he was staying on strongly at the finish. Probably not top of the Ballydoyle pecking order heading into the weekend, but we've seen colts like him blossom on the big occasion before and he adds an interesting dimension.
STONE AGE 🌟🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: Not unusual for a son of Galileo to leave juvenile form well behind as a three-year-old and broke his duck at the sixth time of asking on seasonal reappearance at Navan in March. Since slammed a fair field by five and a half lengths in the Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown (formerly Derrinstown) and could take his form to new heights again now tackling a mile and a half for the first time.
WALK OF STARS 🌟🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: Dubawi colt who built on promising two-year-old profile to win a strong-looking conditions event over 10 furlongs at Newbury in mid-April. Still looked unfurnished and in need of more experience when letting down favourite-backers behind United Nations in the Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield last time but that race has a good recent record of producing Epsom contenders including last year's Derby winner Adayar, who represented the same connections and was also beaten at Lingfield. Needs to have grown up fast but that's not out of the question and a true test of stamina should play to his strengths on pedigree.
WESTOVER 🌟🌟🌟
Analysis: Son of Frankel who hasn't run a bad race in four to this point, winning a Sandown maiden first time out over a mile before clearly benefitting from the move up to 10 furlongs in Sandown's Classic Trial in April. Deliberately kept fresh for the Derby test since, given he'd have had a Group Three penalty to carry in the subsequent trials but his form ties in with some of the other place contenders and he might not be too far away when it matters most.
WEST WIND BLOWS 🌟🌟
Analysis: Always considered to be a strong-staying prospect by connections so bodes well that he's been able to win twice over 10 furlongs - his only career starts to date. Not been tested in a recognised trial so just where he fits in is very difficult to gauge but he was pretty keen in front and still managed to win by five lengths under a penalty at Nottingham when last seen so there's a serious engine under the bonnet. Could find himself embroiled in a pace battle if attempting similar tactics here which might not do his chances much good.
VERDICT
Click here to back Desert Crown for the Derby with Sky Bet
No colt has come close to making the same impression as DESERT CROWN with his Dante Stakes performance at York and given his lightly-raced profile, ultra-patient trainer and ability to handle both good and soft ground, there are seemingly very few holes in the case for him winning.
Doubters may point at one or two questions around stamina for a mile and a half from his dam's side of the pedigree, but sire Nathaniel seems to have imparted more than enough based on the way he was powering home on the Knavesmire, and if he truly gets the trip then he could potentially go right to the top.
Dante runner-up Royal Patronage seems sure to be at least as good over this new distance so perhaps he could be capable of getting a little closer to the favourite, which would make him a fair each-way bet at the odds.
Nations Pride has to be respected as he's on a steep upward trajectory, though stablemate Walk Of Stars could be the one to take the biggest jump forward if improving for his Lingfield defeat in the manner of his stablemate Adayar, who went on to win here 12 months ago.
Changingoftheguard is narrowly preferred to punched-out Leopardstown winner Stone Age of the Ballydoyle contingent, but it could be that Aidan O'Brien is short of a genuine star in this department this season.
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