Our long-range expert has his sights set on a Group One prize at York's Ebor Festival.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Flat season 2022
1pt win Flotus in Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Emaraaty Ana in Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
The five-furlong sprinting division needed a shot in the arm after Australian star Nature Strip effectively made the best Europe (and America) has to offer look unfit for purpose in the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, though some would argue it received precisely that when Royal Aclaim burst onto the pattern-race scene with a striking win in Listed company at York.
The unbeaten daughter of Aclaim is clearly on an upward trajectory, handles good and good to firm ground, and is now proven over the famously fast Knavesmire track, and in the circumstances that all adds up to her being a blindingly obvious candidate for what looks an otherwise fairly middling field for the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at next month’s Ebor Festival.
Punters thinking of balking at her odds for the big one on August 19 (3/1 at best currently) need only look at those closest to her in the market and it soon becomes clear the revised antepost prices are only likely to shorten than lengthen in the coming weeks.
She can win – and she probably will confirm herself in a Group One filly in time – but I’m going to try and get one of the least experienced entries in the race beaten with a couple of darts at longer odds.
Impressive Queen Mary winner and second-favourite Dramatised reportedly won’t be turning up as she’s expected to be kept to juvenile company, the Sky Bet Lowther at the same meeting among her options according to trainer Karl Burke, while Wesley Ward’s Golden Pal – seventh when well-fancied for the 2021 Nunthorpe – was spotted this week doing a first public workout since his Ascot flop ahead of an intended run at Saratoga on August 5.
Highfield Princess is one of the next in the betting and she’s only once competed at the five-furlong trip during her 27-race career to this point.
Perhaps she has major potential over this distance as she looked potentially cut out for it when running away with the Duke of York (Saturday's Hackwood winner Minzaal behind) and produced another fine run from a prominent pitch in the Platinum Jubilee last time, but it’s clearly a bit of a guess-up with her and the general 8/1 makes no real appeal.
Twilight Calls is the same sort of price as Highfield Princess and it’s quite hard to knock Henry Candy’s four-year-old in bare form terms as, on paper, he may need only reproduce his second to Nature Strip to be right in the thick of it.
The issue I have with him – and it’s quite a significant one with the odds in mind – is that his hold-up style could hardly be further removed from what you’re looking for in a five-furlong York horse, and there must be a chance he won’t quite have time to work his way into contention from nearer the back of the pack than the front.
That leads us onto the first horse who I feel is over-priced and that is FLOTUS, who made all the running to win a Group Three over six furlongs at this track the day before Royal Aclaim stated her case over the minimum.
Unlike Royal Aclaim, fellow three-year-old filly Flotus does already have Group One form in the book having finished a length second to Tenebrism in the Cheveley Park Stakes at the end of her juvenile campaign, backed up by a fantastic Commonwealth Cup third just last month.
She was taking advantage of a dip in grade when scoring last time (replay below) and she was also in receipt of 6lb from the three older fillies who immediately followed her home, but it was a stylish performance and one which will have done her confidence the world of good.
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Simon and Ed Crisford were immediately thinking of the Nunthorpe post-race that day and it’s no surprise she’ll skip Goodwood and head straight here as she deserves another shot at the highest level, especially with her neck second to Sense Of Duty at Haydock in May working out so well.
Flotus is a no-nonsense, straightforward filly who looks to be getting quicker with age and I’ve no doubt she’ll be happy back at five furlongs having not quite convinced on her only previous try last summer.
She’s a couple of points too big in the betting and I’d go a step further when it comes to second recommendation EMARAATY ANA, who was runner-up to Winter Power as a 40/1 shot in the Nunthorpe last August before beating Starman when opening his Group One account in the Haydock Sprint Cup the following month.
A trip to Meydan this spring backfired badly and it may have set him back a couple of months but Kevin Ryan has been patient and that approach may really begin to pay off again in the second half of the season.
Emaraaty Ana certainly showed signs he was coming back to his best when sixth (huge price again at 66/1) behind Alcohol Free in the July Cup and the speed he showed in the early stages at Newmarket suggests he has more to offer back over shorter.
I’d be thinking twice about him at 16/1 so we can’t be allowing the 25s to hang around for too much longer - general 20/1 is also perfectly backable.
Final word goes to a couple more two-year-olds in Little Big Bear and Walbank. The former is too short at 12/1 as Aidan O'Brien is already thinking in terms of a 2000 Guineas contender come the spring so he should be a big price just to turn up.
Walbank is the more tempting of the two at 20s as it's hard to believe we saw the best of him in the Nolfolk and he'd looked pretty exciting going into the Royal meeting. Trainer David Loughnane has had loads run well in defeat lately but he's not had a winner since the start of June so it wouldn't be a great surprise if Walbank was another kept to his own age group for the time being.
If he's definitely pointed at this race, he's one I could well be revisiting nearer the time if the price holds up.
Published at 1600 BST on 17/07/22
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