We get the views of Fran Berry, Billy Nash and Matt Brocklebank who shed some light on their expectations ahead of the Dublin Racing Festival.
Can Fact To File get closer to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup?
Fran Berry: There’s every chance Fact To File might get closer. He reportedly got quite worked up in the preliminaries here over Christmas and it was evident he was trying to run with the choke out under Mark Walsh. With that in mind, it allowed Galopin Des Champs to get his own way out in front to some extent and he went on to produce another superb performance. Paddock watching will be important again this weekend as he can do better if he's calm and settles through the early stages. But no matter how you dress it up, Leopardstown really does play to the favourite’s strengths and Fact To File will really need to step up to a new level. Monty’s Star is still relatively unexposed too and well entitled to improve for his comeback run - I can see him stepping up markedly for that initial outing.
Billy Nash: Of course he can get closer, but I'm not convinced that he will. We pretty much know what Paul Townend is going to do on Galopin Des Champs, he will either make the running or race very close to the pace, so a lot depends on how they decide to ride Fact To File. He pulled a bit too hard for his own good in the Savills at Christmas, so I would expect Mark Walsh to drop him out this time in an attempt to get him to conserve some energy in the early part of the race. The problem with that tactic is you run the risk of allowing Galopin Des Champs to get first run and we know how devastating he can be at this track. Fact To File is still relatively lightly raced - he has only tried this trip twice - so there's a good chance that there is more to come from him but he is going to need to run to a Timeform rating in the low 170s, something he has yet to do, if he is to even get close to his stable companion.
Matt Brocklebank: I suspect connections would be a bit disappointed if Fact To File is beaten even further than the seven and a half lengths he was beaten over Christmas and I think he can jump a good bit better than he did in the Savills. That should help bridge the gap and while I don’t quite see the McManus horse reversing the placings, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Galopin Des Champs just did enough to win again before heading for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup next month. The consistency throughout his career to this point has been remarkable and I keep half-expecting him to recoil from one of these massive efforts but it’s just not looking likely based on what we’ve seen.
What are you expecting from Ballyburn back up in trip?
Fran Berry: Ballyburn was put in his place by a spectacular chasing debut from Sir Gino and all but ruled himself out of the Arkle that day at Kempton. Despite jumping errors, he emerged with some credit and, given his form over further when hurdling, he’ll be more in his comfort zone at this trip. Impaire Et Passe has created a very good impression and has the form from last year outside of novice company which could be vital. Champ Kiely was impressive on his comeback and chasing debut following a long time off the track, and on hurdling form he has a similar profile to Ballyburn without quite hitting those heights. It's a trappy sort of race and definitely one to watch.
Billy Nash: In fairness to Ballyburn he didn't actually run badly last time, he just bumped into a very good horse. Initially I was a bit disappointed that he got beaten but, in hindsight, two miles on good to soft ground at Kempton was too sharp a test for him. Hopefully that run hasn't knocked his confidence as he remains a horse of immense potential. The return to this sort of trip will suit but this is far from a straightforward assignment - indeed a case could be made that he shouldn't even be favourite now that Impaire Et Passe has been confirmed a runner. Both have Timeform hurdles ratings of 162, but Impaire Et Passe has already won a Grade 1 over fences and his only defeat at further than two miles over jumps came at the hands of Teahupoo in last season's Hatton Grace. Throw in Croke Park, a dual Grade 1 winner over fences, Better Days Ahead, last year's Martin Pipe winner, and Champ Kiely, a Grade 1 winner as a novice hurdler, and this is arguably the best novice chase of the season thus far. Ballyburn is the one to beat but I won't be backing him at odds on.
Matt Brocklebank: Well, we suddenly have a horse race on our hands. Granted, it’s another race completely dominated by Willie Mullins but thank goodness his owners are happy to compete with each other as it’d be a sorry state otherwise. Ballyburn was obviously miles ahead of the pack as novice hurdler last term but I’m not sure he beat many superstars and was obviously put in his place by Sir Gino over two miles at Kempton over Christmas. The opposition has a quality look to it this weekend and I fully expect Impaire Et Passe to give the favourite plenty of problems. He’s benefited from stepping up in trip since not cutting the mustard in last year’s Irish Champion Hurdle and I’ve liked how he’s taken to fences this season. I was quite impressed with Champ Kiely on his comeback following a long layoff at Fairyhouse too but he’ll need to step up another 10lb to be in the mix and I reckon Impaire Et Passe is the one to be with if looking to oppose Ballyburn.

How much sharper are you expecting Gaelic Warrior to be in the Dublin Chase?
Fran Berry: You would have to respect Gaelic Warrior, especially after how some of the Mullins horses performed over Christmas. You’d expect him to find the required four lengths to reverse form with Solness. That said, Leopardstown doesn’t completely play to his strengths and there may be more reliable odds-on shots over the weekend. He has to go close here if he's going to be a serious threat to Jonbon in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Billy Nash: In many respects this is D-Day for Gaelic Warrior. In my opinion, if he is going to put it up to Jonbon in the Queen Mother, then nothing short of a win here will suffice. His defeat here at Christmas is easily excused. It was his first run for eight months, he was reportedly very much on his toes beforehand and he certainly wasn't the only one from the Mullins yard to fail to meet expectations that week. I would be surprised if he can't turn the tables on Solness with that run under his belt and most of the others have some questions to answer. El Fabiolo, last year's winner, hasn't been seen since April and the vibes don't seem very positive; Captain Guinness, the reigning Champion Chaser is struggling for form at present and may not even be his stable's first string here. That honour is likely to go to Quilixios who ran as well as could be expected in the Tingle Creek last time and holds Marine Nationale on Naas form. Gaelic Warrior to beat Quilixios would be my selection for the straight forecast.
Matt Brocklebank: Gaelic Warrior is not an easy horse to predict and is one of those I can be drawn into opposing at a skinny price, knowing full well he could make me look silly. The obvious one is Solness who beat the favourite by nearly four lengths over Christmas, but he got a great ride around the outside on the fresh strip of ground that day and would be lucky to pull off something similar. I still think there’s a very good horse lurking in Marine Nationale and he could just be ready to peak in this, having finished right up behind Gaelic Warrior last time.
WATCH: Solness beats Gaelic Warrior and Marine Nationale at Leopardstown
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsLossiemouth v State Man – who wins?
Fran Berry: Subject to jockey declarations of course, given the 7lb weight allowance and the fact she’ll be much sharper for the Christmas Hurdle run, I'd favour Lossiemouth. It was somewhat of a culture shock taking on the best hurdler in the British Isles at Kempton and, having never really travelled, she did keep on to be second. With the experience of racing against top-class opposition no doubt doing her good, it'll take an in-form State Man to fend her off and he certainly didn't look that over Christmas.
Billy Nash: Like Fran, whichever one Paul Townend chooses to ride (assuming, of course, that he has the choice) would be the short answer. State Man has been almost metronomic since joining the Mullins yard. Prior to this season, his only defeat when completing over hurdles was when second to Constitution Hill at Cheltenham and, but for a last-flight mistake, he would probably have extended his winning sequence to seven in the Morgiana on reappearance. In fact, his defeat here last time was the first time he has failed to run to a Timeform rating of at least 155 since the 2022 edition of the County Hurdle. Lossiemouth, for her part, had her Champion Hurdle aspirations dented in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. However, having looked in trouble a long way out, there was only two and a half lengths between her and Constitution Hill at the line. This stiffer track and softer ground will play to her strengths. The heart says State Man but the head says Lossiemouth.
Matt Brocklebank: Possibly just State Man for me. The limp effort behind Brighterdaysahead was clearly not a true reflection of his ability and I don’t think he was quite at his best when just beaten by the same mare in the Hatton’s Grace either. Maybe it's too much to ask after the two rather low-key runs but the Irish Champion has seen him peak the last two years and I can see him hitting right back and sealing a significant win over Lossiemouth, who may be headed for a clash with Brighterdaysahead in the Mares’ Hurdle if she can’t beat State Man here.

One novice hurdler or chaser you’re looking forward to seeing and why?
Fran Berry: I was in Limerick for racing over Christmas and, given a lot of the events at Kempton, Final Demand's win went a little bit under the radar. He produced a very taking performance to win on Rules debut, jumping well and powering through the race to basically finish on his own. While at the time it looked like he might have only beaten a fairly weak field, subsequent evidence suggests otherwise as the second has won at Ayr and the third has won a Fairyhouse maiden in good style. They’re rated in the 120s so Final Demand has the look of a top horse in the making.
Billy Nash: There are plenty that I'm looking forward to seeing but the one that stands out above all others is Kopek des Bordes. He didn't jump a single hurdle cleanly (none of ones we could see anyway) on his debut over hurdles here at Christmas yet still managed to run out a convincing winner. That form was given a big boost when the runner-up, Kawaboomga, went one better at Fairyhouse last weekend. Kopek des Bordes clearly has a huge amount of raw ability and is one I could see going right to the top of this division if his jumping improves.
Matt Brocklebank: That would have to be Final Demand, who is clearly held in the highest regard and I’d expect him to win the opening race on Saturday. I’ve no idea regarding which race we might see him run in at Cheltenham if all goes to plan but Willie Mullins has tended to run his winners/placed horses from this 2m6f event in the Albert Bartlett and he won’t have any fears stepping this strapping point up to three miles at some point soon.

One horse for the handicaps?
Fran Berry: It may seem quite an obvious one seeing as he’s been around for a while but My Mate Mozzie is having his fifth start over fences in the Ryanair Handicap Chase on Saturday and could outclass his opposition. He's run very well at Royal Ascot and in the Galway Hurdle since his most recent chase start in last year's Arkle and he’s really interesting back here fresh from a break.
Billy Nash: Meetingofthewaters is the name on everybody's lips and it is easy to see why. He won last year's Paddy Power and is currently rated 148 over fences but gets in here off a hurdles mark of 112. He is sure to go off at a very short price so I'm going to go for a (slightly) less obvious one in My Mate Mozzie's stablemate Midnight It Is. He has returned an improved performer this year, winning readily at Navan on reappearance in December before finishing third to a pair of stable companions in the Dan and Joan Moore at Fairyhouse last time. He went through that race like a horse that is still ahead of his mark and would have finished closer still but for meeting trouble between the last two fences. This race should set up nicely for him with a number of confirmed front runners in the field and Conor Stone-Walsh is very good value for his five-pound claim.
Matt Brocklebank: Galway Plate winner Pinkerton has run some cracking races since returning to the jumping scene (had a spin in a Flat maiden) this winter and has only gone up a couple of pounds for his third to Perceval Legallois in the Paddy Power. He’s still so unexposed as a chaser and could be up to landing Sunday’s O’Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase before having his sights raised again in the spring.
Published at 1608 GMT on 30/01/25
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