Paul Nicholls is backed to win the 2021 Queen Mother Champion Chase, but not with the big weekend winner Politologue - check out our latest long-range preview.
Cheltenham Festival recommended bets
1pt win Duc Des Genievres in Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at 20/1
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Doubtless few people were blown away by Chacun Pour Soi on his Hilly Way comeback at Cork on Sunday, and he looks a shaky long-term favourite for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.
He missed the 2020 meeting on vet’s advice (abscess) and clearly hasn’t been the easiest to train from the outset since joining Willie Mullins.
Mullins expects improvement following the weekend pipe-opener and it could well be forthcoming at Leopardstown over Christmas, a race in which he was beaten, albeit first time out, last season.
It’s not like we need any further confirmation that Chacun Pour Soi is a Grade One animal. His novice win over Defi Du Seuil and Dublin Racing Festival defeat of Min last February, in essence, prove as much.
But he's also not the only Grade One horse in this division.
Nicky Henderson has put his cards on the table with Altior – another who missed last season’s race having failed to recover from injury – in that he's being trained for the one race on March 17, but until we see him in action in a race then he obviously can’t be recommended at anything like the current 7/1 as he bids to become the first 11-year-old Champion Chase winner since Moscow Flyer (the only other 11-year-old winner was Skymas in 1976).
With that pair at the top of the market it has the distinct look of a race for casting the net wider and trying to catch a big-priced winner.
If you believe everything you read then you’ll be forgiven for thinking Politologue simply keeps taking advantage of his rivals’ deficiencies and falling over the line in front. But he’s not a bad horse, you know.
In beating Greaneteen and Rouge Vif pretty handsomely in the end, by seven lengths and one and three-quarters, in Saturday’s Betfair Tingle Creek, he saw off two progressive six-year-olds who had won competitive-looking handicaps from respective marks of 151 and 156 on their previous starts.
Politologue is rising 10 himself, but has "never been better" according to Paul Nicholls and it's not easy to argue with that typically bullish statement.
The gallant grey is 9/1 in a place (bet365) but generally 8s, alongside Shloer Chase winner Put The Kettle On, which will ultimately bring us onto the best bet at the pre-Christmas odds.
Henry De Bromhead has a wealth of talented two-to-two-and-a-half-milers in the camp and Put The Kettle On is potentially head of the pack when it comes to this specific race.
She missed the winter action last time around, De Bromhead keeping her on the boil at home and going straight to the Festival for the Arkle, having beaten Al Dancer in a trial at Cheltenham’s November Meeting.
She won the Arkle (did you hear it's now sponsored by Sporting Life?) in gritty fashion as stablemate Notebook flopped at Prestbury Park for the second time in his career. The latter has resumed looking recharged and refreshed in winning at Naas, and the pair could square off again in Leopardstown’s Paddy’s Rewards Club later this month.
Ryanair Chase third A Plus Tard is another from the same yard entered up and he’s at least entitled to try and defend his Leopardstown title having been the one to down Chacun Pour Soi last Christmas.
With A Plus Tard looking short of genuine two-mile pace on his own seasonal return at Navan, however, and factoring in Notebook’s relatively grim Cheltenham form, Put The Kettle On makes most appeal of the HDB-trained trio.
But if you like her at 8s then the 20/1 about DUC DES GENIEVRES is surely too big to resist.
There was a length and a quarter between them at the line when Duc Des Genievres made his first public appearance for Nicholls in last month's Shloer Chase, but it was an encouraging effort and defeat in the Shloer doesn't put an end to a horse’s Champion Chase chances.
Far from it, in fact. Sire De Grugy (2013, second), Special Tiara (2016, third) and Politologue last year were all beaten in the race before going on to win the big one later in the season.
Sprinter Sacre won both races during his resurgent campaign in 2015-16, while it’s also worth noting the 2017 Shloer winner Fox Norton was beaten a head at the Festival the next spring, and 2018 winner Sceau Royal went on to be third in the Champion.
So for an unfashionable, early-season Grade Two with just a 10-year history to speak of - win, lose or draw - the race has acted as a pretty good pointer.
Duc Des Genievres may be new to Nicholls but, formerly trained by Mullins, he’s not a new name in terms of the Cheltenham Festival. Fifth in the Ballymore won by Samcro in 2018, he went on to win the Arkle by 13 lengths the following March.
It was a little less good and bordering on the bad/ugly last March when weakening to be fifth behind Min in the Ryanair, but there’s no question this is a horse with a big engine when right on song.
Perhaps the window of opportunity with Duc Des Genievres is only really quite small, and his comeback run, following wind surgery, a 248-day break and the fitting of a hood to accompany the usual tongue-tie, was the time to catch him.
But, given his new surroundings, I’m more inclined to expect at least a little improvement on that bare performance at some stage this season. Nicholls admitted post-Shloer that he’d learnt a lot from the run – the horse still racing keenly and almost running away with Harry Cobden no doubt at the front of his mind.
And while there’s probably not much more the trainer can do in terms of raceday headgear, he will definitely make it his mission to try and calm the seven-year-old down a fraction in a bid to help him finish off his races.
Whereas Politologue could now be put away on the backburner with the Tingle Creek in the bag and a fine record fresh, I’d be really surprised if Duc Des Genievres wasn’t out again at some stage in the New Year before the Festival.
A potential clash with Altior in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton or the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury could be an interesting next move, but Ascot and the Clarence House Chase looks the likely race for him. Nicholls has won it a record five times including with subsequent Champion Chase heroes Call Equiname (1999), Master Minded (2009) and Dodging Bullets (2015) and it could serve as the perfect stepping stone.
On the subject of tackling Altior, keep half an eye out for Dan Skelton’s so far unheralded Nube Negra, who is pencilled in for the Desert Orchid this month according to all the stable tours I could lay my hands on.
He’s got a mountain to climb on the official ratings (152) at this point and probably isn’t anything to write home about at 66/1 for the Champion Chase given he was set to bypass Cheltenham altogether last season, but he’s a horse with considerable scope to improve again this season.
He was second to Esprit Du Large in the Henry VIII at Sandown and Rouge Vif in the Kingmaker at Warwick after winning his first two over fences last autumn, but isn’t done with yet at this game.
Chances are he’ll need the run first time up and spring handicaps may be the ultimate goal, but don’t be surprised to see him eventually make his way into the upper tier of two-mile chasers in the fulness of time.
Posted at 1600 GMT on 09/12/20
