Notebook takes on Chacun Pour Soi and our man in Ireland, Donn McClean, reckons he can really put it to the favourite.
Pencilfulloflead
Matchbook Betting Exchange Faugheen Novice Chase, Limerick, Saturday
Pencilfulloflead was a good novice hurdler last season but, after just two runs over fences third term, already he is shaping up like a much better chaser.
Gordon Elliott’s horse battled on well to beat his stable companions Coko Beach and Braeside on his seasonal debut at Galway in October to win his beginners’ chase, a beginners’ chase that has been won in the past by some top-class horses, including Don Cossack, Last Instalment and Presenting Percy.
He stepped forward from that last time to win the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Chase at Punchestown, staying on well to get the better of the high-class novice Latest Exhibition, with Brace Yourself and Court Maid back in third and fourth. The form of that race has been enhanced since, with the fourth and third coming out and finishing first and second respectively in the Porterstown Chase next time.
The Robcour gelding is probably going to have to step forward again if he is going to beat the Willie Mullins triumvirate Asterion Forlonge, Colreevy and Janadil in what is shaping up to be a fascinating contest, but he is only six and he has plenty of potential for further progression as a chaser. He jumps well, he goes well on soft and heavy ground, and he is four for four going right-handed.
Notebook
Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, Leopardstown, Sunday
Notebook caused a mild surprise when he beat Fakir D’Oudairies in the Racing Post Novice Chase at last year’s Christmas Festival, but he was the winner on merit that day, and he was conceding the 7lb age allowance to the runner-up. He followed that performance up by landing the Irish Arkle Chase back over the same course and distance at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Henry de Bromhead’s horse was disappointing in the Arkle at Cheltenham in March, but he had disappointed at Cheltenham before. He has run twice at Cheltenham, and he has under-performed on both occasions. By contrast, he is two for two at Leopardstown.
Chacun Pour Soi obviously sets a high standard, Notebook has 9lb to find on Willie Mullins’ horse on official ratings, but the Gigginstown House horse could get closer than the official ratings and the market suggest he will.
Discordantly
Paddy Power Chase, Leopardstown, Sunday
Discordantly could go well in a hugely competitive Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday. Winner of his beginners’ chase at Gowran Park last March, he put up a good performance on his debut this season to win a handicap chase at Galway off a mark of 132, a race from which the runner-up, Chavi Artist, came out and won nicely at Punchestown next time.
Raised 10lb for that by the handicapper, Jessica Harrington’s horse ran well off his new mark in the Troytown Chase at Navan next time. He was prominent from early that day in a race in which the hold-up horses came to the fore. The winner, The Jam Man, was last jumping the first fence, and three of the next four home all raced in midfield or worse early on. Discordantly was the only one of the first five home who raced prominently. As well as that, he mad a significant mistake at the second last fence, so he can probably be marked up at least a little on the bare form of the run.
The handicapper left him on his mark of 142 for that, and he still has the potential to progress beyond that mark. The ground will probably be better at Leopardstown than the soft to heavy ground that he encountered at Navan, which should help, and he is a progressive six-year-old from whom there could be more to come.
N’golo
Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle, Leoaprdstown, Sunday
Appreciate It and Ballyadam are the two headline horses in the Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday, but N’golo should probably be closer to them in the market than he is.
Winner of the Grade 3 For Auction Hurdle at Navan in November, Willie Mullins’ horse got to within two lengths of Ballyadam in the Royal Bond Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time, when he didn’t have the run of the race.
He was keener than ideal early on behind a moderate pace, he had to be switched before he could be asked for his effort, and he made a mistake at the second last flight just as the pace was increasing. In the circumstances, he did well to keep on as well as he did to get as close to the winner as he did.
He has run five times over hurdles, so he probably doesn’t have the scope for progression that the two market leaders have, but it is probable that he is generally an under-rated horse. He should get a decent pace on Sunday, and that should help him settle better than he did at Fairyhouse and, the second string to the Willie Mullins bow in the race, he might be a little under the radar.
A Plus Tard
Savills Chase, Leopardstown, Monday
It looks like Henry de Bromhead is going to allow A Plus Tard take his chance now in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown on Monday over three miles, and he could be a really interesting contender.
Winner of the Paddys Rewards Club Chase over two miles and a furlong at last year’s festival, when he beat Chacun Pour Soi into second place, the Cheveley Park Stud horse stays two and a half miles well. He was an impressive winner of the Close Brothers Chase over two and a half miles at Cheltenham as a novice, and he ran a big race to finish a close-up third behind Min in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last March, also over two and a half.
He still has to prove his stamina for three miles, but he races over two and a half as if he could get further. There is every chance that he will stay three miles all right, and there is a chance that he could even improve for the step up in distance.
He has raced over three miles just once, when he was well beaten by Delta Work in the Grade 1 novices’ chase at the 2019 Punchestown Festival. But that was at the end of his season, and he was going right-handed that day. His form tells us that he is probably a much better horse going left.
The Savills Chase is shaping up to be a cracking contest, with A Plus Tard’s stable companion Minella Indo heading the market, but A Plus Tard looks like the over-priced horse in the race.
