Leopardstown tips: Donn McClean on day two of the Dublin Racing Festival

Racing betting tips: Sunday, February 7

1pt win Saint Sam in 1.40 Leopardstown at 11/2

1pt win Delta Work in 3.40 Leopardstown at 4/1

1pt e.w. Farclas in 4.10 Leopardstown at 5/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

There may be only five horses in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup, but it is still a cracking contest.

If you were asked which of the five is most likely to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year, you would say Minella Indo. Henry de Bromhead’s horse was a high-class staying novice hurdler, he won the Albert Bartlett Hurdle and the Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle at Punchestown, and he was one of the top staying novice chasers around last season. He was impressive in each of his first two runs this season too over fences, before he fell in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown last time.

That was a rare blip. It was wholly uncharacteristic. He is usually a very good jumper of fences and hurdles. You just put it down as one of those things and move on.

He remains a live Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect, and it would not be at all surprising to see him win today and confirm himself as the chief threat to Al Boum Photo’s hat-trick bid. But he is short and, at more than twice his odds, DELTA WORK is a more attractive betting proposition today.

Gordon Elliott’s horse is on a recovery mission himself. He unseated his rider in the Savills Chase about 16 seconds after Minella Indo had departed. Again, that was uncharacteristic. He had never fallen before in his life.

The Gigginstown House horse is a top class staying chaser, and the balance of his form says that he is better at Leopardstown than he is anywhere else. He won the Savills Chase and the Irish Gold Cup at the Foxrock track last season, and he won the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Chase there at the 2018 Christmas Festival as a novice. He has run in four races over fences at Leopardstown, and he has won three of them, all of them Grade 1s.

The small field should suit him, and the return of Jack Kennedy is an obvious positive. Kennedy’s record on Delta Work over fences reads 115, the 5 recorded in the Champion Chase at Down Royal on his debut this season, and we know that he is never at his best on his debut.

The Gigginstown House horse is the highest-rated horse in the race, and he looks well over-priced at 4/1.

SAINT SAM looks over-priced too in the Tattersalls Ireland Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Willie Mullins’ horse was sent off as favourite to beat Zanahiyr in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle on Hatton’s Grace Hurdle day at Fairyhouse in November and, while he couldn’t go with Zanahiyr that day when he kicked at the second last flight, he did finish miles clear of his other three rivals.

He could only finish fourth behind the same Zanahiyr in the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, but he didn’t have the run of the race that day. They didn’t to a great pace and, held up early on, Saint Sam got caught in a pocket on the inside when they quickened around the home turn. He was shuffled back to last place after his inside run was blocked and, switched to the outside, he was last of the seven runners jumping the final flight. He stayed on well from there to take fourth place, closest at the finish.

Busselton and Ha D’Or both finished in front of him that day but, with a better run through the race, he has every chance of reversing places with those two rivals. Paul Townend has chosen to ride Youmdor instead, and he is a player, he probably would have beaten Teahupoo at Fairyhouse last time had he not come down at the final flight. However, he has to bounce back from a heavy fall just three weeks ago, it may not have been an easy decision for the champion jockey, and the disparity in odds between Youmdor and Saint Sam may be greater than it should be. Quilixios is obviously a player too, we don’t know how good he could be, but we haven’t seen him since October, and it looks like Saint Sam is the value.

FARCLAS is at the top of the market now for the Gaelic Plant Hire Leopardstown Handicap Chase, but it is still worthwhile getting him on side.

Second in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at this meeting in 2018, and winner of the Triumph Hurdle six weeks later, Gordon Elliott’s horse put up an encouraging performance in a valuable handicap chase at Punchestown in November on his first run back after a long break, and he stepped forward from that last time in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival.

He was a little keen through the early stages of the race, on his first attempt at a distance in excess of two miles and five furlongs, but he travelled well to the home turn and he kept on well enough to take third place behind Castlebawn West and Minella Times.

The handicapper raised him by just 1lb for that performance to a mark of 143, which was more than fair, it is still 3lb lower than his hurdles mark. Also, he is only seven and he has run just five times over fences, so he has the potential to go beyond that mark now. And the drop back from three miles to two miles and five furlongs today is another positive. There are lots of positives.

• www.donnmcclean.com

Published at 1138 GMT on 07/12/21