Grand National tips: Donn McClean on Irish challenge

Expectation levels move with changing circumstances. We waited years after L’Escargot for an Irish-trained winner of the Aintree Grand National. Greasepaint went close in 1983, his final flourish under Colin Magnier getting him to with three parts of a length of Corbiere’s nose, but he couldn’t get any closer. Then Paul Carberry came along in 1999 and booted Bobbyjo home.

It was a long wait, a 24-year wait, and the celebrations that the victory sparked were appropriate. As well as being ridden by Paul Carberry, Bobby Burke’s horse was trained by the rider’s father Tommy. You couldn’t have written it. It was stranger than fiction.

But then, actually, it wasn’t. Because 12 months later, along came the 20-year-old Ruby Walsh on Betty Moran’s horse Papillon, who was trained by the rider’s dad Ted, and wrote the same non-fiction story.

Monty’s Pass was three years later and Hedgehunter was two years after that, sparking a hat-trick of victories, completed by Numbersixvalverde and Silver Birch that took the tally of Irish-trained Grand National victories to six in nine years.

Strange, then, that there has been just one since Silver Birch in 2007, Rule The World in 2016, but that could rise to two in three years on Saturday, because this year’s Irish challenge is strong.

The case for Anibale Fly is rock solid. The handicapper raised him by 9lb after his Gold Cup run, but he gets to race off his old mark of 159. If the weights were being re-framed this morning, JP McManus’ horse would have 12st 2lb to carry, not 11st 7lb. Or he would have 11st 10lb to carry, and all his rivals would have 6lb less than they have. He is the best-handicapped horse in the race, and that makes him of automatic interest.

There is no point in being the best-handicapped horse in the race if you cannot run up to your mark, but there is much more to Anibale Fly’s chance than just the weights and measures. For starters, he has always been a classy horse. Winner of two of his three bumpers, he won a Grade 3 contest as a novice chaser, and he finished second in both the Grade 1 Drinmore Chase and the Grade 1 Growise Chase.

The Tony Martin-trained gelding won the valuable and hugely competitive Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival this season off a mark of 148, and he appeared to win it with plenty in hand, he stayed on strongly to win by an ever-increasing seven-length margin. And he proved his class again last month when he finished third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

He stayed on strongly at the end of the Gold Cup, which augurs well for this, his first foray into an extreme stamina test. Of course, he had a hard race in the Gold Cup, but he will have had a 29-day break by the time Saturday rolls around, and he ran all the way through the line at Cheltenham. He didn’t finish off his race like a horse who might be finished for the season.

He is an eight-year-old, and eight-year-olds have a good recent record in the Grand National. He goes well on soft ground and he will have Barry Geraghty for company. There are lots of positives.

There are lots of positives too about Alpha Des Obeaux. Mouse Morris’ horse is another eight-year-old, and he had the class to finish second in a Stayers’ Hurdle behind Thistlecrack.

He ran a cracker on his debut this season at Limerick to finish second in the JT McNamara Munster National, just seven lengths behind the seriously well-handicapped Total Recall, who went and won the Ladbrokes Trophy, the old Hennessy, at Newbury next time off an 18lb higher mark.

And the Gigginstown House horse proved his class over fences next time when he won the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase over a wholly inadequate two and a half miles, when he had fellow Gigginstown horses A Toi Phil and Balko Des Flos behind him in second and third. That form obviously looks even better now than it did then.

He has run four times since then, and he has been beaten on all four occasions, which is obviously not ideal, but those runs were all at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level, and the defeats are factored into his odds of 40/1. He proved that he could handle soft ground when he won at Clonmel, and we know that he stays well. We also know that Mouse Morris can have a horse at concert pitch for the Grand National, as he famously proved two years ago with the maiden chaser Rule The World, and Rachael Blackmore is a very good rider.

Total Recall has a big chance, he is a seriously improved chaser this season for Willie Mullins, he was running well in the Gold Cup when he came down at the third last fence, and he will race off a handicap rating that is only 9lb higher than the mark off which he won the Ladbrokes Trophy, when the first two finished well clear. The Grand National has been his primary target since then, and you know that Willie Mullins will have him primed.

The stats are against Baie Des Iles, a seven-year-old mare, but she is a tough mare and she is an experienced seven-year-old, and she has lots of other factors in her favour.

At her best on soft ground, Ross O’Sullivan’s mare won the Grand National Trial over three and a half miles at Punchestown last season on soft ground off a mark of 141 as a six-year-old, and she finished third in the same race this season off a mark of 145.

The form of that race received a serious boost in the Irish Grand National, with the first and second, Folsom Blue and Isleofhopendreams, finishing fourth and second respectively at Fairyhouse. Those two are now rated, respectively, 11lb and 5lb higher than they were at Punchestown. Also, Space Cadet, who finished fourth, finished second to Pairofbrowneyes in the Leinster National next time, and is now rated 3lb higher than he was then.

Baie Des Iles could be a well-handicapped horse, racing, as she will, off her Punchestown mark of 145 on Saturday. She stays well, she jumps well and, in Katie Walsh, she has a top rider who famously rode Seabass to finish third in the Grand National in 2012.

Welsh National winner Raz De Maree comes into it on the soft ground, Maggio sprang a 50/1 shock when he won the three-mile handicap chase at the Grand National meeting two years ago, and Bless The Wings is a top cross-country horse who has finished second in two Irish Grand Nationals. Expectation levels are high.

For more of Donn's work visit www.donnmcclean.com

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