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Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree tips: Preview and best value bets for Saturday November 9
Matt Brocklebank looks forward to a busy Saturday of ITV Racing with recommended bets at Doncaster, Wincanton and over the National fences at Aintree.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced over 115pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 9
1pt win Willaston in 1.30 Aintree at 11/1 (General)
1pt win Pure Theatre in 1.45 Wincanton at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Gaboriot in 2.40 Aintree at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Insanity in 3.45 Doncaster at 16/1 (Coral, William Hill, bet365)
Pure price luring me in
The bulk of the ITV action this Saturday comes from Wincanton but the ground remains good and there are very small fields gathered for the Elite Hurdle and the Rising Stars, while the 63rd Badger Beer Handicap Chase isn’t the most compelling of punting heats either.
David Pipe’s Remastered was the closest I came to striking a bet in the valuable handicap, but he was reportedly one poor run away from retirement before winning narrowly over a similar trip here last month and a 5lb rise does look quite tough on the face of it.
Perhaps his confidence will be fully restored and it’s not like the revised 145 is out of range if you go back to the pick of his form from the 2021-22 campaign, but I can let the old boy go and win at current odds and won’t force a bet unnecessarily.
Outsider PURE THEATRE looks one to be on in the BetMGM Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle.
Her trainer Anthony Honeyball won this with an 18/1 rag last year and said mare Good Look Charm is back for another bite at the cherry, but she’s running off an 8lb higher mark despite not adding to her tally since whereas the stablemate off a light weight looks feasibly treated these days.
In fact, Pure Theatre was the subject of a slightly odd gamble at Fontwell last time out towards the end of September, punted into 5/2 favourite (from much bigger prices earlier in the day) in a handicap chase despite having zero previous experience over fences.
She struggled to make any impact from off the pace and trailed in last of the eight runners that day, but there was more than a hint that connections thought she could do some damage off 105, unsurprisingly so given she won off that mark over the smaller obstacles in May 2023.
It’s precisely the perch from which she returns to hurdling this weekend and, with good ground and a step up in trip both very much in her favour, she wouldn’t be as much of a shock winner as the betting suggests.
Take two up at Aintree
Another jumper who looks a touch underestimated is the Mark Walford-trained WILLASTON, who is capable of outrunning his odds in Aintree’s Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle.
That’s just what he did when landing back-to-back handicap hurdle races at 33/1 and 16/1 at Cheltenham (2m4f) and Haydock (3m) in the spring of 2023 and it looks promising that, after just a handful of subsequent starts, he’s back on his last winning mark of 126.
That’s the result of being dropped another pound following last month’s comeback run over two and a half miles at Uttoxeter, where he looked predictably rusty, occasionally jumping out to his right which can’t have helped, before plugging on to be third.
Getting back on genuinely good ground and reverting to three miles are both positive factors here and Walford’s Wetherby winner last week, 12/1 shot Perculator, was having her second start of the season so hopefully Willaston improves just as much for a run.
He’s not got too many miles on the clock but has hit the frame in 10 of his 19 starts over the smaller obstacles (fell on chase debut two years ago) and rates a fair bet with so much in his favour here.
The BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase is the main betting race on Merseyside and I’m a fan of GABORIOT here.
Training duo Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero had a major breakthrough in this event with Gesskille winning last year, having been a close second with the same horse the year before, and it looks significant that Gaboriot is the stable’s representative this time around.
Unseating Harry Myddelton on his previous attempt at this course in last season’s Foxhunters’ is hardly compelling evidence to part with your cash on Saturday, but having revisited that race a few times since, I don’t think the horse did a whole lot wrong, including when losing his rider at the Canal Turn.
He jumped most of the fences perfectly neatly so it’s no real surprise connections are happy to return to the scene of that mishap, especially after his two subsequent starts on the hunter chase scene yielded victories at Cheltenham and Cartmel back in May.
The ground was pretty testing for both of those wins but he won a pair of traditional handicap chases on good going at Kempton and Doncaster 12 months ago so I don’t see conditions being an issue, and his record when fresh for this yard is excellent.
Stamina is clearly going to be a strong suit over this in-between sort of trip which should ensure he gets into a nice prominent position under Henry Brooke, who incidentally must be pretty keen to get back on board if he’s sweating right down to do 10-2.
King to claim Doncaster honours once more
It’s the final day of the Flat season at Doncaster and, as was the case when the meeting had to be transferrable to Newcastle last year, they’ve kept the Virgin Bet November Handicap back to close the card.
Thankfully, the racing surface is perfectly raceable this time but it’s still going to be a bit of a slog (‘minimum dry back’ is expected from the official description of soft) and I like my November Handicap horse to be a strong stayer at the best of times.
INSANITY fits the bill nicely as he’ll probably be back over hurdles before long, but I reckon he can add to his tally on the Flat before then as he’s still so unexposed in the grand scheme of things.
The juvenile hurdling didn’t really go to plan a year ago but he was pitched in against Sir Gino at Kempton last Christmas in fairness, and he’s looked a much happier horse back on the level in 2024, winning narrowly at Windsor in April before almost doubling up off 4lb higher at Ascot in July.
He returned to Berkshire for the Shergar Cup the following month to win the 12-furlong handicap and you’ve got to love how he travelled through the race that day (replay below). There was only a head in it at the line, but Insanity looked like he could have pulled out a bit more had he needed to, and he was quite well fancied (4/1) to defy his revised mark of 95 in the Sky Bet Handicap at the Ebor meeting.
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Ultimately beaten eight lengths, not a lot went his way as he seemed to jump the path early on and wasn’t really letting himself down on the lively conditions in the home straight.
Perhaps he caused himself a bit of an issue as he’s been off since, but trainer Alan King - winner of this race in 2020 with On To Victory who also came via the Sky Bet Handicap - was talking of the November Handicap following the Shergar Cup and it’s good to see he’s happy to stick to plan-A on the horse’s return to action.
The son of Nathaniel has progressed loads since the last time he competed on soft (did win on bad ground at Ffos Las in his youth) which makes me think he could be sitting on another considerable chunk of improvement, and he’s worth another chance off the same mark as at York as he’s four times the price now.
Published at 1600 GMT on 08/11/24
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