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Doncaster Tips Today: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing Thursday September 12
It's day one of the St Leger Festival on Thursday and Matt Brocklebank has a trio of recommendations to back at Doncaster.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 149.70pts in profit (241pts staked, ROI of 62.11%).
Value Bet tips: Thursday September 12
1pt win Silver Ghost in 1.50 Doncaster at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Sweet Memories in 3.35 Doncaster at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Theory Of Tides in 4.10 Doncaster at 14/1 (General)
Silver could claim gold for Lavelle in nursery
Plenty of typically competitive races to consider on day one of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster, kicking off with the British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Nursery.
On the face of it, there doesn’t appear to be a single flashy candidate in the field and I can see it being won by something with some solid nursery form already in the book.
Emma Lavelle hasn’t sent out a two-year-old winner since July 2008, but she obviously doesn’t have many runners on the Flat and SILVER GHOST has been threatening to break the trend since first taking to the track in a Goodwood maiden in mid-June.
The 40,000-guinea daughter of Phoenix Of Spain looked close to hopeless as a 50/1 shot on debut but has shown steady improvement with every start, finishing an eyecatching third to subsequent Group 2 second Billboard Star (now rated 104) at Newmarket on just her second run.
She missed out by a short-head to Ralph Beckett’s Timefall when upped to seven furlongs for the first time on her third career outing before returning to the July Course (last three starts there) for her handicap debut last month.
Quite weak in the market on that occasion, she turned the tables on third home Timefall, evidently bumping into a classy winner in the Roger Varian-trained Miss Fascinator, who was bumped up to a mark of 95 and runs in Friday’s Group 3 Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury.
Silver Ghost was getting 6lb from her and was beaten almost three lengths, but I still have her down as feasibly treated after a 3lb rise to 82 on the back of that latest display.
Further improvement should be anticipated, and she looks likely to benefit from the ‘very strong’ pace predicted by Timeform thanks to three or four real speed merchants elsewhere in the line-up. I’ll take a chance win-only at double-figure odds.
Sweet price about unexposed filly
Timefall lines up in the Weatherbys Scientific £300,00 2-Y-O Stakes but, regardless of how Silver Ghost gets on in the nursery, she does look up against it considering there are three in here with triple-figure BHA ratings already.
The Betfred May Hill Stakes has seen the odd surprise over the years including 40/1 winner Polly Pott a couple of seasons ago, but the closest I came to taking on Godolphin’s top prospect Desert Flower was with Elsie’s Ruan, who looked in need of the move up to a mile when third to all-the-way winner Lake Victoria in the Sweet Solera last month.
She’s bred to come into her own over middle-distances next year but is probably no more than a fair price here around the 16/1 mark.
I’d rather have a bet in the Betfred Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes regardless as there’s a bit more to go on in terms of racecourse evidence and SWEET MEMORIES looks the one to interested in at long odds.
The Gosdens have a good record in this event, four wins for the yard in the past decade, and I think we can safely ignore Sweet Memories’ most recent run as a reliable piece of form given she was lit up after stumbling quite badly when the stalls opened.
She’s much better judged on her fairly encouraging comeback run when fourth to Queen Of The Pride in Haydock’s Group 2 Lancashire Oaks in July, the form of which has been given the odd boost courtesy of the subsequent exploits of runner-up Tiffany and sixth home Sea Theme.
On that evidence, Sweet Memories does look capable of possibly getting back to the level she was at last summer, when recording back-to-back wins at Newbury (novice) and Newmarket (Listed race).
She was even tried in the Group 1 at Ascot on Champions Day last October, such is the regard in which she was held at the time, and although a stronger all-round gallop would have been preferred for this keen-going sort, Sumo Sam isn’t going to be hanging around up front and things could pan out for the 25/1 selection if that’s the case and they go a reasonable tempo.
Tides to sweep home back in distance
Gosden stablemate THEORY OF TIDES is another on something of a recovery mission in the Pertemps Network Handicap but he’s surely worth another chance in this sort of company given how stylishly he moved before emptying late on at Hamilton last month.
The son of Galileo weakened quite alarmingly on that occasion but I’m inclined to think a combination of factors may have been involved, not least the pretty desperate ground.
Theory Of Tides, unraced at two, did win a Yarmouth novice on good to soft going back in May but his pedigree suggests he wouldn’t be completely at home on the heavy stuff he encountered up in Scotland and, on top of that, it was his first public outing since being among those given a good shellacking by Calandagan in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot in June.
So we might be dealing with physically fitter colt just 20 days on from that effort, and the drop back to 10 furlongs looks sure to help too as he was still just about in front on passing the two-furlong marker at Hamilton, having got there quite easily after travelling strongly just off the pace.
Connections have made another headgear alteration, blinkers replacing the cheekpieces tried for the first time last month, and I’m still inclined to believe this horse has the potential be a bit more than a handicapper so it would come as no shock to see him bounce back at this sort of level with conditions in his favour.
Published at 1600 BST on 11/09/24
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