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Doncaster Tips Today: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing Friday September 13
Just the one bet for Matt Brocklebank as he looks ahead to the latest action from the St Leger Festival on day two at Doncaster.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 149.70pts in profit (241pts staked, ROI of 62.11%).
Value Bet tips: Friday September 13
1pt win Zayer in 3.00 Doncaster at 20/1 (General)
Attractive bets at rewarding odds look few and far between on day two at Doncaster and the feature Group 2 Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup is particularly trappy.
Point Lonsdale feels like the big quandary of the race as he just didn’t look himself from quite an early stage, having been sent off the 2/1 favourite, in York’s Lonsdale Cup last time and it’s fascinating to see connections persevere with him as a staying project.
Perhaps he’s just run out of other options when it comes to representing Ballydoyle at a high level over middle distances, seeing as they’re so well stacked in that division, but if he’s able to show something like his true colours again then he’s going to be a major threat to John and Thady Gosden’s pair of Gregory and Sweet William.
I’d just prefer the dour stayer Gregory of the two over this trip, but it’s not a race that sets the pulse racing I must admit.
The same applies in the Betfred Mallard Handicap as there are three with dead obvious claims and, if anything, I’d be inclined to back York winner Shadow Dance who has gone up 5lb for a neck victory on the Knavesmire but has evidently hit his straps heading into the autumn and looks every inch a 100-horse in my eyes.
I can leave him alone at current odds, though, and will pass up the option to oppose Jonquil in the Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes too.
His Sandown maiden win was quite extraordinary considering how much ground he lost when badly hampered at what looked a crucial stage so to get back up and win marked him down as a colt with plenty of substance.
He’ll be a fitting winner here for 2008 St Leger-winning trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who announced his retirement earlier this week.
That leaves a seven-runner fillies’ handicap and the Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes, with the Group 2 for juveniles the one luring me in to have a bet.
Big Mojo and Magnum Force set the standard on Timeform ratings, but they were both beaten (at Group 2 and Listed level respectively) last time out and nothing in here should be scaring anyone off – hence the decent-sized field, I guess.
Maw Lam is a filly I could see going well and Jamie Spencer might have some fun on her from off the pace, particularly as there’s no shortage of early speed signed on, but ZAYER could be the one to really outrun his odds.
He’s one of the lowest rated here on official figures but that doesn’t tell the whole story as he’s been shaping with tons of potential and, as a breeze-up buy in the spring, appears to have been learning on the job how to compete and efficiently get from A to B without overdoing it in the opening section of a race.
Forced to settle for the runner-up spot when chinned at Ffos Las and Haydock over six furlongs, the drop to five really brought about pronounced improvement when getting off the mark in a Ripon maiden late last month and I just loved the way he went about his business on that occasion.
He’s got so much speed this colt and Hollie Doyle was able to put it to good use with a prominent ride, but the son of Starspangledbanner looked considerably more tractable than on his first two outings and seems to be growing up fast.
Speaking of which, he has plenty of size and scope to carry on his improvement so may be able to bridge the gap with a few of those who have been on the go a bit longer and perhaps beginning to plateau, including his stablemate Aesterius, second to Big Mojo in the Molecomb before going one better in a small Group 3 in France earlier this month.
Their trainer Archie Watson has only ever had one runner in the Flying Childers, winning it with Soldier’s Call in 2018, and clearly deems Zayer capable of at least holding his own against the 103-rated Aesterius.
Ratings can often be deceiving in the juvenile ranks at this stage of the season and it looks like the market may have underestimated the selection’s chance.
Published at 1600 BST on 12/09/24
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