Derby tips: Horse by horse guide and Value Bet shortlist for Epsom Classic

Horse-by-horse guide

Click here for Sky Bet odds and offers

ADELAIDE RIVER (Aidan O'Brien) - 50/1

Form ties in pretty closely with a few of these and he's evidently got plenty on his plate when it comes to reversing Chester Vase form with Arrest, who may have coped with the soft ground best but basically looked the classier colt from start to finish.

Prospect of much better ground offers some hope but he wasn't the best of these at 10 furlongs either so he's likely to be among the outsiders and can't be put forward as a realistic contender.

ALDER (Donnacha O'Brien) - 33/1

Australia colt whose dam is out of a half-sister to Light Shift, so there's plenty of Epsom history coursing through his veins.

Finished third to Auguste Rodin in Leopardstown Group 2 last year but looked to have improved bundles over the winter when winning over 10 furlongs at Cork on his seasonal return where he beat recent London Gold Cup winner Bertinelli quite comfortably.

His subsequent Chester second behind San Antonio can be marked up at least a little as he was relatively slowly away and ultimately found himself right at the back in a messy and pretty slowly-run affair. He was the only one to emerge as some sort of threat to the winner on turning into the short straight but he wandered off a true line and couldn't get upsides.

Stepping up again in distance makes plenty of sense and he'd be an intriguing candidate if allowed to take his chance.

ARREST (John & Thady Gosden) - 13/2

Dettori's last ride in the Derby but, sentimental value aside, there is a lot to like about this horse's profile and the one potential issue that keeps being pushed is that he wouldn't want the ground to be quick. That may be so, but he twice ran very well on good to firm as a raw-looking juvenile last year, finishing third to the highly promising Nostrum on his Sandown debut (7f) before winning a mile maiden narrowly at the same venue, and it's not exactly a stretch to image he'll cope with it here.

Still looked a bit green before and during the race when beaten a head in a ding-dong battle with Dubai Mile in a French Group 1 on his final 2022 outing, but more positives (mentally and physically) to take from his comeback success in the Chester Vase, having the race sewn up a long way out and not needing to be asked any serious questions.

He's since had a look around Epsom at the recent gallops morning so that won't be new to him, while unlike a lot of these colts he's already proven at the 12-furlong trip and is likely to be in the mix for the St Leger too given his pedigree.

Still open to loads more improvement as he continues to fill out his considerable frame and looks the most likely winner at this point. He should certainly be favourite and I suspect he will be come the day.

ARTISTIC STAR (Ralph Beckett) - 40/1

Galileo colt who looks a cracking prospect for connections having won both starts to date, defying a market drift to win at 16/1 on soft ground in a Nottingham maiden in mid-October and picking up where he left off with a straightforward success at Sandown earlier this month.

The ground was on the easy side there too but every reason to believe he'll be fine on a quick surface, though trainer Ralph Beckett sounded cool over a tilt at the Derby in the immediate aftermath of his comeback success.

Would need to improve his form quite considerably anyway and highly likely the Group 2 King Edward VII will be his next port of call.

AUGUSTE RODIN (Aidan O'Brien) - 100/30

Clearly the apple of the collective eye at Ballydoyle - and beyond - and he looked the business when slamming a decent field in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster towards the end of last season.

Sent off the 13/8 favourite for the 2000 Guineas on his seasonal return, when soft ground appeared to have come in his favour to help make that Classic more of a test in keeping with his stamina-laden pedigree, but his chances soon when up in smoke.

There are countless examples of O'Brien colts bouncing back and Little Bear Bear did just that when presented with a more suitable distance in Saturday's Sandy Lane at Haydock, and perhaps Auguste Rodin will do the same, but as preparations go he's clearly not had the smoothest passage to Epsom and he makes precious little appeal at the odds.

COVENT GARDEN (Aidan O'Brien) - 100/1

Bred to be very good but not living up to his pedigree just yet and he looks to have stacks to find with the likes of Dubai Mile and Arrest having finished down the field in the same Saint-Cloud Group 1 in October.

First-time blinkers didn't spark a great deal of improvement when third (led early) in 1m5f Listed race at Navan recently and he looks one for pace-setting duties if running here, before possibly going down the handicap route at Royal Ascot.

DEAR MY FRIEND (Charlie Johnston) - 100/1

An ambitious entry for owners Middleham Park Racing and no denying the same stable has a much stronger candidate in Dubai Mile.

This son of Pivotal toughed it out to win narrowly in a Listed race at Newcastle on his seasonal return but has since had his limitations exposed when eighth of 11 in the Dante at York and, even on last year's form, he still very much has stamina to prove.

DUBAI MILE (Charlie Johnston) - 14/1

First progeny of Roaring Lion to win at the highest level and he really did show immense courage to ultimately see off Arrest by a head at Saint-Cloud (1m2f) in the autumn.

That was no flash in the pan either as he'd won two novices before being beaten just half a length by The Foxes in a slowly-run Royal Lodge at Newmarket en route to his big day in France.

Connections made it pretty clear they weren't expecting too much dropping back to a mile for the 2000 Guineas and he was duly outpaced at a key moment but everything still looked in perfectly working order as he boxed on for fifth on the Rowley Mile (replay below).

Getting back on quicker ground won't be an issue and while his sire memorably came up short in the stamina department at Epsom a few years ago before successfully dropping back in distance, you'd almost have him down as a cast-iron stayer given the way he goes through his races.

He looks an obvious each-way contender.

KING OF STEEL (Roger Varian) - 66/1

Giant of a colt and made a huge impression when winning his Nottingham maiden on debut by nearly five lengths in October, a performance that effectively fast-tracked him into the big league when finding it all a bit too hot to handle at Doncaster later that month.

Was due to reappear in the Dante Stakes but he became upset in the stalls and had to be withdrawn so hard to know where we stand, not only in form/ability terms but also with his physical and mental well-being.

Obviously quite interesting if connection decide to roll the dice but the bold call back-fired last season so you'd imagine they won't want to be making the same mistake by aiming for a Classic with so little experience or race-fitness.

MILITARY ORDER (Charlie Appleby) - 7/2

Still a touch shy of the pick of these on ratings but that's no doubt partly due to the fact he's yet to be tested at Group-race level.

Beat a subsequent handicap winner very nicely in 10-furlong Newbury novice on his comeback and came through the Lingfield Derby Trial (Listed) with flying colours despite tackling this longer trip and making his all-weather debut, the race having been switched from the waterlogged turf.

Looks likely to uphold superiority over Waipiro on that evidence but will probably need to raise his game a bit more to win a Classic and he seems to be priced up quite defensively.

PASSENGER (Sir Michael Stoute) - 9/2

Well-regarded son of Ulysses. So well regarded that he was supplemented into the Dante Stakes after making a winning debut in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket last month, and has now been added to the Derby field at further cost following an eyecatching third to The Foxes at York.

Travelled quite stylishly for much of that race but was squeezed for room two furlongs from the finish and again inside the last, ultimately looking to pass the post with petrol still in the tank.

He's on a pretty steep learning curve and a lot will come down to how he handles such a big occasion as he's very lighly-raced, for all there's no doubting his talent or potential for further improvement in pure form terms.

Either way, he's not being missed in the betting.

SAN ANTONIO (Aidan O'Brien) - 33/1

Not good enough to win a maiden (couple of attempts) at two but has turned over a new leaf this time around, breaking his duck with plenty to spare at Dundalk at the end of March before landing the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester on May 11.

Appeared to benefit from a masterful Ryan Moore ride and how the race panned out generally but clearly going the right way as he gains more experience and it's unlikely he's peaked just yet.

O'Brien has been talking about sticking to 10 furlongs and going for the French Derby but has been given the Epsom option and there's plenty in his breeding to suggest he'll get the trip standing on his head. Won't be 33/1 if turning up but suspect the market tells its own story.

SPREWELL (Jessica Harrington) - 9/1

Showed some sparks of promise in two maiden outings as a two-year-old but has returned a changed horse completely following another winter, winning over a mile at Naas before following up in decent fashion in Leopardstown's Derby Trial Stakes.

Seems to switch off nicely in his races so every chance he'll stay the new trip well enough to be in with a shout but has only raced on bad ground to this point and appears to really enjoy getting his toe in.

Could obviously get away with well-watered conditions although he does lack a bit of star appeal and is another who is priced up about right for the time being.

THE FOXES (Andrew Balding) - 10/1

Plenty of excuses have been put forward for the horses beaten in the Dante but full credit to this colt who went there and got the job done under a very good Oisin Murphy ride on the day.

Connections had deliberately targeted the York Group 2 and teed him up with a nice comeback run in the Craven but I can't have been alone in leaving the Knavesmire wondering whether he'd just won his 'Derby' as he doesn't look to be crying out for a step up to the mile and a half and he rolled around a little out in front which would set off one of two alarm bells with the Epsom camber in mind.

Suspect he'll need several others to falter, which isn't out of the question but a supporting role looks most likely.

WAIPIRO (Ed Walker) - 16/1

Took a few people by surprise (25/1) with his seasonal debut success upped to 1m2f for the first time at Newmarket in April but proved that no fluke with his subsequent second to Military Order in the Lingfield Derby Trial on the all-weather.

Doesn't have a mass amount to find on that evidence and important to stress he's still so lightly raced, though the Lingfield race didn't place much emphasis on stamina and he wasn't particular strong at the finish, certainly in comparison to the winner.

He's going to find this tough work and may be happier back over slightly shorter in future.

WHITE BIRCH (John Joseph Murphy) - 12/1

Made giant strides between debut fifth at Naas (heavy) to win his maiden on the polytrack at Dundalk later on in November and picked up this term with another improved display in winning the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown from well off the pace.

His typically slow start was even more exaggerated in the Dante at York last time and it has been argued that it possibly cost him victory given he only went down by a neck to The Foxes, who was better placed throughout the race.

Showed he can handle quicker conditions at York and he certainly shapes like he could improve again for a move up to a mile and a half, something backed up by his pedigree, in which case he'd have a solid chance of hitting the frame providing he doesn't completely fluff his lines as soon as the gates open. Has worn a tongue-tie all four starts to date.

Value Bet shortlist

• Arrest 13/2
• White Birch 12/1
• Dubai Mile 14/1
• Alder 33/1

Frankie Dettori sounds a bit concerned over the prospect of quick ground for Arrest but John Gosden was offering more encouragement in that regard when speaking last week and it's well worth stressing the horse has at least won a strong Sandown maiden on going described as good to firm.

He still looked a big baby towards the end of last year, going down narrowly in a head-bobber to Dubai Mile in France, but has evidently grown up a lot based on his Chester Vase win and there are no concerns whatsoever about him getting the Derby distance.

He's currently representing the pick of the value towards the head of the market as a 13/2 shot with some firms, with old foe Dubai Mile - generally 14/1 - another serious each-way player following his eyecatching effort in the 2000 Guineas.

A lot was made of Passenger's run in the Dante but, on reflection, surely White Birch (12/1) was the horse to take from that race with a view to this more demanding test of stamina, while plans surrounding Alder have gone a bit quiet since his Dee Stakes defeat but he remains a colt of considerable potential and appeals as being over-priced at 33/1 (providing the intention is to run, of course).

Published at 1428 BST on 29/05/23

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org