His name has finally appeared among the six-day entries again and David Ord ponders where a peak Adayar might fit in the big races this autumn.
50/1 with Sky Bet. And if you genuinely just wanted to know – then you’re welcome.
But he’s the second conundrum in this year’s race.
They say absence makes the heart grow fonder – but not in the world of horse racing it seems.
Or maybe it’s more a case of the head ruling the heart in the cool, calculating trading rooms – but his name finally appearing among the entries at Doncaster on Thursday has hardly caused a ripple.
True, he hasn’t been spotted all season after failing to please connections at home but slowly Charlie Appleby has felt the spark has been returning – and now he at least feels he’s almost racecourse-ready.
And there are still big prizes to be won this season. Victory at Town Moor – with a performance to match – would surely set up a tilt at either the Arc, QIPCO Champion Stakes or Breeders’ Cup.
So where would a peak Adayar fit in Paris?
Well clearly much higher up the Arc pecking order than the current price would suggest – for all Baaeed casts a large shadow over the race.
Adayar has a 130 Timeform master rating – the hallmark of a top-class racehorse and has twice hit 130+ on his performance ratings when winning last year’s Cazoo Derby and beating an on-song Mishriff in the King George of 2021.
Baaeed has only twice gone above that number, when winning the Lockinge and then taking his rating to where it has long threatened to go in winning the Juddmonte at York.
137+ is huge and if running to those numbers in Paris he’ll win.
But he’s unproven at a mile-and-a-half and that’s even before the headache of the draw and potential testing ground come into the equation.
Of course the final two points equally apply to Adayar but were he to make the Arc he’d at least give the favourite a little less wiggle-room.
An on-song Baaeed would beat Adayar on the evidence we have, if he stays. We know Adayar does and on Timeform ratings the 2021 Derby winner has the same chance as Titleholder, is two pounds clear of last year’s winner Torquator Tasso and four of Pyledriver. Right now he is three or four times the price of each.
He was of course fourth in last year’s renewal when he did a little too much, too soon, paying the price for a lack of pace in the contest.
That can’t happen again. Surely this year an armada of pacemakers will be deployed if Baaeed does turn up – they after all have one chance of beating him don’t they?
Maybe Adayar hasn’t come back to his best. Maybe we’ll see that at Doncaster and attention will then swiftly turn to stablemate New London in Saturday’s Cazoo St Leger.
Were he to win that well and Adayar fluff his lines then we dust off the articles looking at St Leger winners’ record in the Arc and the quest for that particular Holy Grail will be alive once more.
But seeing Adayar’s name on a racecard again offers hope that there may be a fresh chapter or two left in his story.
Wouldn’t it be great to look at the Oddschecker grid next week and see him at a single-figure price?
It would mean he’s back – and Appleby’s midas touch means the Boys In Blue can dream again. It would certainly liven-up the weeks and months ahead.
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