Antepost Value Bet tips: National Hunt season
1pt win Lord Accord in Coral Gold Cup at 33/1 (General)
Another new name but still one of the most enticing betting races of the entire jumps season as we look ahead to the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury later this month.
The first horse that leaps out at you from an antepost perspective this year is Ahoy Senor, who is 20/1 and bigger in places on account of the fact connections are sounding as though they’ll look towards the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree, rather than run here under what would in all likelihood be top weight (the four currently above him all doubtful runners to say the least).
I'd urge Lucinda Russell and co to reconsider given one of his finest jumping performances came around this course 12 months ago, before the seven-year-old went on to prove himself one of the best novices around with striking wins at Wetherby and Aintree, as well as a highly creditable second in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham.
Ahoy Senor’s Charlie Hall Chase comeback run was seriously disappointing on the face of it but you’d imagine he’ll tighten up considerably for the outing and, personally, I’d love to see him pitched in here.
Plans can change, of course – we saw that with Frodon in Saturday’s Badger Beer at Wincanton (how did that work out for the G1 winner under top weight) – but it’s got to be a watching brief at the moment as it's highly likely Ahoy Senor will not be involved at Newbury in a little under three weeks’ time.
Frodon is another expected to be heading elsewhere, Paul Nicholls having nominated the King George as his next target, but LORD ACCORD – who chased him home at Wincanton – will surely be heading to Newbury as long as the going doesn’t become too testing.
Newbury’s ground is rarely that deep this time of the year anyway but it’s worth stressing the last three editions of this particular race have been run on going described as good to soft, good, and good to soft. So maybe we'll strike lucky again on that score.
Lord Accord was a really promising novice last season, landing a traditionally decent handicap at Uttoxeter first time out and defying a mark of 136 when back to winning ways at Taunton in December. He lost his way a little thereafter but a comeback run over hurdles obviously sharpened him up as he looked to have his mojo well and truly back when bolting up at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting last month.
A 5lb rise for that success meant he was only back up to 136 and he evidently just bumped into one on Saturday, going down two and a half lengths to the popular Grade One winner after a mistake at the last, but pulling 11 lengths clear of a well-treated Cap Du Nord in third.
That represented another career-best effort from seven-year-old Lord Accord and he’ll most likely be ahead of the assessor if turning out for this early-closing contest with the weights set in stone on November 2.
The obvious issue might be him not quite sneaking into the race but, as already touched on, there are several in here with alternative engagements and others ran poorly over the weekend too which might given some trainers second thoughts of declaring.
Only 24 make the cut and he’s currently 46 on the list so he'll need a helping hand but the price - cut with some firms on the back of the weekend outing but still 33s with plenty - looks way out of line on pure form terms and I’m going to roll the dice when it comes to him potentially getting into the final field, in which case he’ll be slashed significantly in the market.
Published at 1400 GMT on 06/11/22
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