Ben Linfoot previews Saturday's televised action and has three recommended bets at Ascot including a 16/1 chance in the handicap hurdle.
Racing betting tips: Saturday February 20
1pt win Demachine in 1.50 Ascot at 5/1 (bet365, Boylesports)
1pt win Newtide in 2.25 Ascot at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Kid Commando in 3.00 Ascot at 16/1 (bet365, Bet Victor)
It’s a big day for Anthony Honeyball on Saturday as he has a quartet of interesting runners, including Sojourn in the William Hill Grand National Trial at Haydock and course specialist Regal Encore in the Swinley Chase at Ascot.
Those two could go well but are relatively well-fancied, so the one of his that I want to back the most is KID COMMANDO in the Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle at 16/1 (bet365, BetVictor, 14s General) at Ascot at 3.00.
That looks a really good bit of business as I don’t think there’s a better handicapped horse in the race and we should start seeing the best of him now he’s tackling trips in excess of two miles, with the 2m3f at Ascot this weekend a perfect stepping stone.
A point-to-point winner who is related to several horses who excelled over intermediate trips, the only time he has tried a similar distance was when he was sixth at Haydock in November, but he did too much too soon that day off top weight in tough conditions after being taken on for the lead.
It wasn’t a bad run in the context and there was no shame in failing to give weight and a beating to talented horses like Umbrigado and Shakem Up’Arry, and while things didn’t pan out for him that day it is not evidence that he doesn’t stay.
On the contrary, we should see improvement from him at this trip, and we know he likes Ascot following his comfortable success over two miles here back on October 31 off just a 4lb lower mark.
He beat a course and distance winner in Malaya by almost five lengths that day and if he’d come straight to this race from that he’d be around 4/1 favourite, from just 4lb higher, such was the impression he made.
We’re getting four times that price because of his Haydock run and also his last appearance, here at Ascot, where he was pulled up in the Betfair Exhange Trophy after racing too keenly up front in the early part of the race over two.
He’s miles better than that, though, and he’s had a break and wind surgery since then, so I’m well prepared to chance him now at rewarding odds.
Honeyball’s Regal Encore is one of four chances for JP McManus in the “My Oddsboost” On Betfair Swinley Chase at 2.25, but the one I like here is Kim Bailey’s NEWTIDE at 10/1 (General).
Coincidentally, all of Saturday’s selections run on the back of wind surgery, I’ve not honed in on the W1s on purpose by any means, but it’s not too surprising this horse has had a procedure after he sported a tongue-tie on his last two starts, while his finishing effort wasn’t great when last seen at Haydock.
Hopefully the wind op will help with that and the three months off looks a major positive judging by his record fresh, with his last two victories coming on the back of 217 and 83-day breaks.
The first of those was a two-and-a-half length defeat of subsequent Welsh National winner Secret Reprieve off levels, while his last win came at a similar time of year in last season’s Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby – the last time David Bass rode him – for all that it was a fortunate success.
Bass returns to his back on Saturday and things might just pan out nicely for him, with the likes of Captain Chaos, Sub Lieutenant and Cobolobo likely to give Newtide, who usually races just off the leaders, a nice tow into things.
The form of his last two victories suggests he’s got a handicap in him off a mark of 141 and Saturday looks the time to catch him with plenty in his favour.
Finally, it doesn’t look a vintage renewal of the Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (1.50), but despite the small field and compressed market I’m not sure DEMACHINE (5/1 bet365, Boylesports) should be battling it out for outsider of the field status.
I’d have him at the other end of the betting disputing favouritism with Sevarano who he beat by three lengths at Newbury last time, when in receipt of 8lb, and though they compete off levels on Saturday I fancy him to confirm that form.
While Sevarano has to prove himself at the trip, Demachine is a course and distance winner and he was very impressive that day when accounting for Young Bull, who he had previously beaten off much more favourable terms, in the style of a horse going places.
That looks good form, as the third (Hold That Taught) has come out and run well at Chepstow, the sixth (Salty Boy) ran a good race in the Tommy Whittle and the seventh (Minella Bobo) won at Hereford the other day.
Demachine beat them all with ease and though he was only slightly below that form at Newbury subsequently, he’s had a little break and, yes, a wind operation since then.
He looks set to run a big race and if there is a question mark over the trip for Severano there are doubts about the other runners too – Full Back might be better going left-handed, Hurricane Harvey has a 5lb penalty to carry and Kalooki is on a retrieval mission after pulling up in the Kauto Star last time out.
Remastered could be the danger, but this is a step up in class for him and he doesn’t have as good a form as Demachine in the book, but he is a similar price if not shorter.
I’d rather back Demachine and after a winner and a second at Wetherby the other day, Kerry Lee could be about to hit form after a quiet period - her best novice chaser can fly the flag for the yard this weekend.
Published at 1540 GMT on 19/02/21
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
