Chester Cup tips: Preview and best value bets for May meeting feature on Friday May 12
By Matt Brocklebank
17:31 · SAT May 06, 2023
The tote Chester Cup is the latest major Flat handicap on the horizon and our long-range expert has a 20/1 shot of serious interest.
The Value Bet is designed to generatelong-term profitby searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over119pts profit.
Desert Crown to win the Derby at 25/1 featured among his many winners in 2022 and so far this year he's tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1 (R4) and Gloire D’athon at 14/1 (R4).
Antepost Value Bet tips: 2023 Flat season
1pt win Green Book in tote Chester Cup at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet)
Confirmations for the tote Chester Cup landed earlier this week and with Novel Legend being cut to 12/1 from 33/1 for the race after his impressive win at Newbury last Friday, now looks a really good time for a bet.
The obvious problem for Novel Legend, of course, is that he's going to struggle to make the final 17 who line up on the Roodee on May 12, given he’s currently down as number 33 on the list of acceptors even with the 3lb penalty for his recent success.
Having a run under the belt certainly helps when it comes to this event and one who didn’t necessarily catch the eye but could strip considerably fitter for a comeback spin is the Hughie Morrison-trained Vino Victrix, who was looked after by Benoit De La Sayette in the final two furlongs after his chance had clearly gone in the aforementioned Newbury event won by Novel Legend.
This horse was dead progressive in 2022 and generally seems to improve as the season goes on, so I wouldn’t take a particularly strict reading of what looked a limp enough effort on testing ground in Berkshire.
He handles some cut, but such a deep surface was never going to suit first time out and I think it’s worth mentioning the jockey again too as having half an idea what De La Sayette is riding in these heritage handicaps – while still 15 winners off riding out his claim – is an extremely valuable asset when it comes to antepost punting.
There’s no guarantee he’ll keep the ride here but he was on board for this horse’s big win at Goodwood last summer so it would make a lot of sense to keep the partnership intact if at all possible. Vino Victrix was eased from 8/1 favourite to 16/1 with a few firms on the back of his reappearance and that may prove to be generous.
However, one at an even bigger price that I’d expect to see near the top of the market if making the cut is GREEN BOOK.
He currently needs 11 drop-outs which doesn’t seem out of the question at all given the inconsistent weather we’re experiencing, and if he sneaks in at the bottom of the weights then he’d surely be among the favourites for this.
On the subject of race-fitness, Venetia Williams' charge will be coming here after a nice, two-month break following on from a light (four races) hurdling campaign which culminated in a career-best effort at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen.
For a few strides on turning into the straight I was convinced he was going to go extremely close to winning the Pertemps Final from a mark of 139, only for the closers to finish strongly and relegate Green Book to fourth, beaten less than four lengths in the end (replay below).
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That was a fantastic effort, having won the valuable February qualifier at Sandown for the second year running en route to Prestbury Park, and this relatively recent improvement has come following an obviously beneficial breathing operation towards the end of last year.
Meanwhile, his Flat rating has remained at 89, 1lb higher than when a fine fourth to Calling The Wind over two and a half miles at the 2021 Glorious Goodwood meeting, and only 12lb higher than when absolutely dotting up in the Chester Plate Handicap (Cup consolation race) in May of the same year.
That guaranteed stamina, ability to negotiate this tricky course and his versatility regarding underfoot conditions all make him a perfect candidate for Cup victory this year, and at 20/1 I’ll happily roll the win-only dice and hope it cuts up enough to allow him to prove the point.
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCareon 0808 8020 133.
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
