Theatre Man is the horse with the biggest discrepancy between its handicap mark for the Cheltenham Festival and its Timeform master rating.
Timeform’s experts believe the Richard Bandey-trained eight-year-old is 6lb well-in for this year’s Festival, where he’s set to run in either the Ultima or the Plate.
He’ll line up off a mark of 137, well below his Timeform rating of 143p, with the ‘small p’ indicating the horse is also likely to improve.
Timeform chase handicapper Phil Turner explains: “Theatre Man found only Grade 1 contender Ginny's Destiny too strong when runner-up in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham's Trials Day meeting and that race, which invariably provides strong form, has already worked out well and resulted in an even more positive view being taken than was the case at the time.
“Theatre Man was nudged up 3lbs by the BHA but the way he stuck to his task and closed all the way to the line behind one of this season's best novice chasers (who was admittedly giving him weight) suggests that he's still a well-handicapped chaser. He's searching for a first win over fences but has shaped nicely on all three starts and has shown run-by-run improvement on Timeform's figures.”
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Crebilly, officially rated 140 and entered in the Plate, is the joint-second best-treated horse according to Timeform. His Timeform rating of 145 suggests he’s 5lb well-in.
“Crebilly was upsides Ginny’s Destiny and seemingly going the better of the pair (giving that rival 1lb) when coming down at the second last on his chasing debut in a novice handicap at Cheltenham in November,” said Timeform’s Turner.
“There were still cards to be played, and Ginny’s Destiny proved very strong up the hill, but the benefit of hindsight suggests Crebilly was in the process of posting a smart performance and we’ve settled on a rating of 145.”
Alongside Crebilly with 5lbs in hand is last year’s Arkle third Saint Roi (BHA rating 152; Timeform master rating 157 = 5lb difference), who will be pointed at either the Grand Annual or the Plate.
Turner said: “Saint Roi has been largely disappointing this season, but he showed enough when fourth in a handicap chase at Fairyhouse on his penultimate start to suggest that he's capable of replicating the pick of his efforts from his novice campaign.
“Saint Roi struck at Grade 1 level at Leopardstown during that season but his best effort on Timeform's figures was when third behind El Fabiolo and Jonbon in a high-quality Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks well handicapped on that form, while it should also be remembered he was only beaten a length and a half by Ryanair Chase favourite Banbridge in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree last season.”
Timeform v BHA Rating Top 3
- Theatre Man (BHA mark 137; Timeform master rating 143p = 6lb difference)
Ultima Handicap Chase or Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase
- Crebilly (BHA rating 140; Timeform master rating 145 = 5lb difference)
Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase
- Saint Roi (BHA rating 152; Timeform master rating 157 = 5lb difference)
Grand Annual Handicap Chase or Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase
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