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Cheltenham tips: Preview & best value bets for November Meeting on Saturday November 16
Matt Brocklebank is backing Dan Skelton's top weight to produce a memorable display in Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet previews are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, featuring the Sky Bet Price Guarantees, before the full column is made available to all 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced over 113pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 16
1pt win Protektorat in 2.20 Cheltenham at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Quick Draw in 2.55 Cheltenham at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Wonderful Eagle in 3.30 Cheltenham at 9/1 (General)
Pro punt in Paddy Power
Dan Skelton will be champion trainer in Britain. Whether it’s this season, next season or the one after that, I’ve been convinced he’ll achieve that major goal for two or three years now and it’s the sort of boldness on show in Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup which will help propel him to the top of the tree.
Not many trainers would be prepared to run a horse like PROTEKTORAT in handicap company from a mark of 167, but the move has to be applauded and there's no escaping the fact this horse holds an outstanding chance of giving Skelton a first victory in the famous Cheltenham feature.
In fact, I’d go a step further and would have him much closer to the top of the market, along with Paul Nicholls’ classy second-season chaser Ginny’s Destiny, who is bound to give it a good go from the front but might just find this test on the sharp side for his first race of the season.
Granted, that could be argued of Protektorat too, given he’s run in two Gold Cups and was still competing over three and a quarter-miles here last December, but his record at the intermediate distance stands up to close scrutiny – it's just his level of ability almost forced connections to dream big after he won the Many Clouds at Aintree three years ago.
That victory came on the back of a tremendous effort when narrowly denied in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (rated 154 at the time), looking an unfortunate loser on the day after jumping errors cost him dear, and it would be no surprise to see him atone three years on after claiming a third Grade 1 victory of his career in last season’s Ryanair Chase.
The horses he beat on the New Course here in March included Envoi Allen, Capodanno, Stage Star, Ahoy Senor and Banbridge, while Fugitif and Ga Law - considered two potential dangers this weekend - couldn’t lay a glove on the winner and were both eventually pulled-up.
He does have to give Ga Law, the 2022 winner of this race, 12lb, which won’t be easy, but there’s no real substitute when it comes to top-class horses running in handicaps, and I reckon he’s well up to the job as it’ll likely be his final run in such a race before he’s back competing at the highest level.
Defending his Ryanair crown is reportedly the main aim this year and that just hammers home the notion that we’re dealing with a nine-year-old at the peak of his powers, not some old-stager on the decline.
The selection’s new stablemate Madara is a fascinating one with the medium to longer-term in mind as it's not hard to see him improving again this season and he’s totally unexposed over this kind of distance having done most of his racing at two miles. Removing the usual tongue-tie and cheekpieces does put me off him ever so slightly.
Hartur d’Arc is the other one lurking on a dangerous-looking rating and everything his trainer Gavin Cromwell touches seems to turn to gold, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned that he’s dropping more than a mile in distance having last run in the Irish Grand National.
He does only have the five chase starts to his name, though, and can give the odd one a real belt so I’d be doubting whether he’ll produce a faultless round which is going to be needed with horses like Ga Law, Ginny’s Destiny and Protektorat pouring it on from a long way out.
If they do go hell-for-leather then that may bring In Excelsis Deo into the equation and I can certainly see him hitting the frame, but he’s a similar price to the Skelton first-string and there’s only one winner in that argument as far as I’m concerned.
Draw conclusions at odds on offer
It could be a fine day for both trainer and jockey as the Skelton-based Doyen Quest looks made for a move up to three miles in the From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle. He’s among a very nice bunch of young handicap hurdlers currently housed at the stable and many of them will go on to achieve significant things in time.
Doyen Quest being nudged up 3lb to a mark of 125 following his Chepstow second in last month’s Silver Trophy surely isn’t going to prevent another big effort, but I’m more in favour of backing Nicky Henderson’s QUICK DRAW at the odds.
He’s got quite a patchy record but there’s no doubt his chase form has improved since he was last in action over hurdles, and he won off 132 over fences back in February so the mark of 128 in this sphere potentially underestimates him.
Quick Draw will need to put a very low-key comeback run over the bigger obstacles at Wincanton well behind him, but he’s bounced back from miserable efforts before and taking the blinkers off might do the trick here.
It’s not that his record without them is all that strong, but he’s definitely perked up for a headgear switch in the past, winning in first-time cheekpieces, first-time blinkers, and again when cheekpieces came back to replace the blinkers.
A lot of Henderson’s horses have looked in need of a run this autumn so I’m expecting a sharper version of this horse to show up on Saturday and he’s got favourable underfoot conditions if that’s the case.
Eagle to swoop back over jumps
Hamsiyann is obviously on a good mark in the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle but he's too short for me now and, as he's not run since May, Tony Martin’s horse could be made to work by the fighting-fit WONDERFUL EAGLE.
Like the market leader, this looks quite a well-treated animal based on his Flat form this year and his only recent run over jumps yielded an impressive victory at Newton Abbot in September, where good value for the length and three-quarter margin of success. He’s running off 7lb higher here.
Back on the level at Ascot last month, he confirmed his well-being with a staying-on third to promising three-year-old Hutchence, who was in a different league on the day.
But Wonderful Eagle (rated 86 in that sphere) only just missed out for second to Sir Mark Prescott’s True Legend so it’s very respectable form and he looks likeably versatile in terms of the ground.
Published at 1600 GMT on 15/11/24
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